by David Aragona
Today's picks have been updated for Races 4, 6, 8, and 9 coming off the turf.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 3: 3 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 9 - 4 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 8: 7 - 2 - 9 - 8
Race 9: 7 - 12 - 3 - 1A
RACE 2: FLASHGUN (#2)
Todd Pletcher is always dangerous in these spring and summer 2-year-old maiden races, and his first-time starter Outshine figures to be the heavy favorite in this one. This colt was an expensive yearling purchase, though he’s not necessarily bred to be precocious. He’s by solid stamina influence Malibu Moon and from a female family that has produced mostly turf sprinters. Pletcher knows how to pick out the ones who can win early, but I see a few alternatives to this favorite. Strike Play ran well at Keeneland in his debut, chasing home a Wesley Ward stablemate after a wide trip from the difficult No. 12 hole. He has a right to improve. However, the horse who interests me most is another first-time starter. Flashgun goes out for Phil Serpe, who doesn’t have nearly as much success with debut runners as others in this field. However, Flashgun certainly has the pedigree to be a nice horse, as his dam produced stakes winners Riversrunrylee and Toasting. Those horses were best routing, but Flashgun is by new sire Flashback, a fast and precocious son of Tapit. I loved the way this horse was loping through his 10-second-flat workout at the OBS sale two months ago, and he’s worked forwardly since then.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5
RACE 5: VERY VERY STELLA (#5) / DADDY D T (#6)
If Morning Buzz continues to perform well, he’s likely to collect his fourth consecutive victory. However, instead of moving him up the class ladder following his most recent win, his connections are dropping him back down into this open claimer. It’s always a concern that cheap horses who suddenly get very good may revert to their prior form. I think this is the day to take a shot against him. I don’t like Full Salute’s chances to turn the tables since he had his chance last time and just wasn’t good enough. I’m instead interested in the two runners posted toward the outside. Both enter off lackluster efforts, but they have had excuses. Daddy D T got involved in an early duel going a mile two back in a race dominated by the two horses who sat off that quick pace. Then last time, he was hindered by a four-wide trip around the far turn. He figures to appreciate this class relief and should work out a more favorable stalking trip this time. I’m definitely using him, but my top pick is Very Very Stella. This horse had no chance last time in a race that featured an extremely slow pace for the distance. The only runners who changed positions in the stretch were the top two finishers, as the others ran in place. Furthermore, that was a very ambitious spot for this horse, and now he gets some class relief. He will appreciate the added half-furlong, and he’s run well over wet tracks in the past.
Win: 5,6
Exacta: 5,6 with 1,2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 5 with 1,6 with 1,2,3,5,6
RACE 7: SOPHIE N (#5)
Pas de Deuce is the horse to beat off her respectable maiden effort. That April 28 field was actually pretty strong for this level, and the race featured a swift early pace that this filly was attending. She’s bred to stretch out as a daughter of Curlin, and her early speed should make her dangerous. I’m certainly using her, but there are some others to consider. I want to bet Sophie N, who makes her second start for connections who know how to win with big prices. Over the past five years, Corby Caiazzo is 5 for 17 ($4.96 ROI) with maidens going from sprints to routes on dirt. While she wasn’t facing the strongest field at Parx last time, this is a drop from open maidens into New York-bred company. While there isn’t obvious stamina pedigree, progeny of Yes It’s True actually can go longer, so a mile should be appropriate. It’s a good sign to see a live rider like Junior Alvarado take the mount. At a bigger price, I also want to throw in Mrs. Orb, who deserves a second chance on the surface switch.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,6