PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 2:   6 - 7 - 2B - 5
Race 3:   8 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 4:   1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 5:   10 - 12 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   1 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 7:   4 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 8:   9 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 9:   5 - 3 - 2 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 3

I don’t have confidence in any of the short prices in this $10k claimer. I suppose Twice Smitten (#4) could go favored off her narrow loss at the level last time, but there’s little evidence that she’s supposed to get better with added distance. I’d be more interested in the other Rob Atras runner, Vallarand (#7), whose recent form is terrible. Yet she’s run well going a mile and gets back into a barn for whom she had previously run well. Looking beyond the shorter prices, I want to keep my mind open regarding some longshots who appear to be in poor form. Gringotts (#3) is one to consider even though she’s been uncompetitive in her recent starts. She’s simply been competing against significantly tougher competition and is getting needed class relief. She’s also stretching back out to a distance at which she’s had success in the past. My top pick is Keen Dancer (#8). It appears that there’s some pace in this race, and this filly will come running late when she’s spotted at an appropriate level. She’s another who has been in against company that is just too stiff in recent starts. She had no chance against a better field last week, and I don’t care about her turf attempt prior to that. She’s back at the right level and distance for a barn that can win with prices.

Fair Value:
#8 KEEN DANCER, at 9-1 or greater
#3 GRINGOTTS, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 4

There’s no denying that Anileate (#3) is the horse to beat in this conditioned claimer. She probably should have won at this level last time when she sustained a wide trip around both turns, losing significant ground to the eventual winner. The two of them drew well clear of the rest of that field and there’s little doubt that Anileate would have won with a ground-saving trip. I’m hardly against her. However, she was 8-1 last time and now she’s going to be a fraction of that price as the likely favorite with Manny Franco taking over the reins. I just want to take one shot against her with Miss Kristy (#1). This 3-year-old looks slower on speed figures, but so did Always Laughing, who beat the favorite last time out. Miss Kristy has shown significant improvement in her last couple of starts in Florida. She was flying at the end of that maiden claimer at Tampa two back, finishing 9 lengths clear of third. Then last time she put in a relentless run from off the pace to get up in a race that might have been stronger than the speed figure suggests. Jane Cibelli hasn’t had much success on this circuit, but she reaches out to Jose Ortiz with a filly who appears to be on the rise.

Fair Value:
#1 MISS KRISTY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8

Most of the major players in this optional claimer are returning from layoffs. That includes likely favorite Bahamian Club (#6). This filly ran deceptively well in her second career start last June. She got the wrong trip stalking along the rail during a time when the outside paths were preferred on the inner turf, before getting stymied in traffic late. She subsequently improved when working out a great trip to win at Saratoga. She then ran the best race of her career in the Pebbles to close out her season, rallying into a slow pace after racing outside throughout. The 7-furlong distance of this race may be a little short for her, but she clearly has talent and will be tough to handle if she returns in top form. Miss Carol Ann (#2) also last raced in the Pebbles back in September at Aqueduct, and was similarly compromised by a slow early pace. She was even farther back in the early stages than Bahamian Club, trailing the field early. Yet she did well to make up some ground through the lane while never really threatening. I don’t mind the turnback as much for her, since she was successful sprinting in Europe last year. Graham Motion also does very well off layoffs. The horse who could take money who I’m against is Regal Realm (#8). She earned a massive 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure last time, but I have some doubts about the overall quality of that race. She also got to set an extremely slow pace before sprinting home. She’s the primary speed once again, but this is a tougher field. My top pick is Sail By (#9). This filly has run some of her best career races at Belmont Park. She won her debut here as a 2-year-old before earning her biggest victory in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo at this venue in late 2021. She failed to win during her 3-year-old season, but she did put forth her best effort over this course and distance when a narrowly beaten third in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly. She had a legitimate excuse after that, as she was off to a poor start before chasing outside in the Lek Placid. I like her cutting back off the layoff. She has also changed hands since last year, and has a right to improve off the trainer switch to Phil Antonacci.

Fair Value:
#9 SAIL BY, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

There’s really no center to this state-bred maiden claimer, as there’s little strong turf form, leaving it a wide open race. I suppose the horse to beat is Pauciloquent (#2), who seemed to handle turf well when she finished third at this level on Apr. 22. That came up a very fast race, so I won’t hold it against her that she was no match for the top two finishers. A repeat of that performance certainly gives her a chance, but she’s hardly a standout. My Cara Mia Mine (#1) also makes sense off some of her prior turf form. She’s primarily raced against tougher company, and caught a difficult field for the level when she dropped in for a tag last summer at Saratoga. This is a softer spot than that and she has a right to take a step forward second off the layoff. Yet I want to consider some others at bigger prices. Giggling Ghost (#3) could get overlooked here due to her 0-for-11 record and Jackie Davis in the irons. Yet she ran a lot better than the result suggests last time, as she chased a fast pace going a distance that is too far for her. I like her cutting back to a sprint, and that most recent performance suggests that she might have improved since last year. My top pick is first time turfer Queens Over Threes (#5). I love Bustin Stones as a turf sprint sire – his progeny 15% of their turf sprint attempts. The dam has only produced one turf winner, but a couple of her foals were best on this surface despite being by poor turf influences Laoban and Here Comes Ben. Queens Over Threes has run her two best races at this level and held her own last time in a race that was stronger than the speed figure indicates. The Rudy Rodriguez barn has started to turn things around lately, and this filly strikes me as one that will take to the surface.

Fair Value:
#5 QUEENS OVER THREES, at 5-1 or greater
#3 GIGGLING GHOST, at 15-1 or greater