by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 9 - 8 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 1 - 3
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 1 - 9
Race 6: 8 - 11 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 9 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 4 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 9: 6 - 4 - 3 - 9
RACE 2: MUCH TROUBLE (#9)
Both Variant Perception and Much Trouble exit the same $50,000 conditioned claiming event at Aqueduct in April. The former runner may go favored once again solely on the basis of his connections, despite finishing third that day. This horse ran well to break his maiden in February 2018, but I have not been thrilled with either effort since returning from the layoff earlier this year. I prefer Much Trouble, who was hindered at the start of that Apr. 5 event, as he broke a half-length behind the field and was shuffled back from there. Kendrick Carmouche gave him a great ride thereafter, saving ground before swinging out to launch a stretch rally. He got a strong pace to close into, but he was still finishing with greater late speed than any of his rivals. This time he has drawn the outside post position, so he should be able make better use of his tactical speed, reverting to the running style he used on dirt. There is very little speed in this race, so Carmouche’s strong sense of pace should be an asset.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,8
Trifecta: 9 with 8 with 2,3,6
RACE 5: DIAMOND N SIMON (#2)
Turf form is relatively scarce in this claiming event for 3-year-old fillies. The runner with the best form appears to be Retro Street, as she seeks her third consecutive victory on grass. Her speed figures don’t exactly make her formidable, but at least we know she relishes this surface, which is more than can be said about many of her rivals. She is the horse to beat, but I’m somewhat concerned that she has been a vet scratch twice over the past three months. Trixie’s Time appears to be her main rival, but I’m not quite as thrilled with her Gulfstream form. She was facing weak fields on a number of occasions and most recently finished second in a race dominated by longshots. If I’m going to take a shot against Retro Street, I want one of the first-time turfers. The most intriguing runner making her grass debut is Diamond N Simon. Her dirt form has been solid, if somewhat inconsistent, but she is bred to move forward with this surface switch. Her sire, Tizway, is a good turf influence, connecting with nearly 15 percent of his progeny trying it for the first time. This filly’s dam was a turf winner, and her only other foal to race is Millie’s Party Boy, a career maiden who clearly ran his best races on grass. Watching Diamond N Simon’s replays, she appears to have the action of a turf horse, and I feel relatively certain that she will take to this surface. She doesn’t have to be much to beat this field.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7,9
RACE 7: ARCHUMYBABY (#9)
The scratch of Shimmering Moon leaves Archumybaby as the probable favorite, and a very likely winner. Shimmering Moon was in a position to control the pace when these two met last time, and she created difficulties for her rivals by slowing down the early fractions. Rather than securing a clear advantage heading into the far turn, Jose Lezcano allowed the stalkers to surround this mare, causing the pack to bunch up behind her. The horse who may have been most negatively affected by those tactics was Archumybaby, who was unwisely rated in the opening furlong. Eric Cancel pulled her back off the pace and put her in a precarious position stalking inside, behind Shimmering Moon. Archumybaby seemed to react badly to horses surrounding her, turning her head while attempting to back out of that tight spot. Due to that trouble, she was backpedaling at the quarter pole while others were launching their moves. Once Cancel finally switched her outside, she came with a solid late finish, but she was far too late to make an impact. Yet it is noteworthy that she galloped out with good interest, passing all of her rivals soon after the wire. I like that she’s drawn an outside post position this time, and I would not be surprised to see her revert to the form that we saw two back when she took down the Videogenic Stakes. If she repeats that effort, she will not lose this race. After the scratch of the favorite, I'll focus primarily on keying Archumbaby over some horses in exotics. Timely Tradition should work her way into the trifecta off the trainer switch to Rob Atras. I would also include Moondance Joy, who may be rounding back into top form, and Parx shipper Bertranda.
Win: 9
Exacta: 9 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 9 with 3,5 with 1,3,5,10