by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 6 - 8 - 4
Race 2: 2 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 7 - 1A - 9 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 6 - 8 - 3 - 4
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 11 - 1
Race 7: 5 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 8: 2 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 9: 2B - 6 - 5 - 2
RACE 4: YAMANO MAKER (#7)
The Chad Brown entry of Financial System and Unleveraged is likely to go off as a prohibitive favorite since both runners would be viable contenders as separate betting interests. I prefer Unleveraged, who won his maiden off a lengthy layoff at Aqueduct last time while beating a decent field. He earned a respectable 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and he would be a win candidate here if he merely repeats that effort. Financial System disappointed in his return last time, but he may not have appreciate the 10-furlong distance. The cutback in trip will help, but he may be a cut below these from a class perspective. The logical alternative to the entry is Il Primo Sole, who makes his first start in the U.S. while returning from a 10-month layoff for new trainer David Duggan. This runner showed promise in Europe last year, losing the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) by just five lengths and finishing a close fifth in a competitive 30-horse handicap during the Royal Ascot meet. His top Timeform Rating of 114 puts him in the mix, but there are some hurdles. Something clearly went badly awry in his final start of 2018, and now he’s returning as a new gelding with Lasix. He does appear to be working forwardly. I’m using him, but my top pick is first-time turfer Yamano Maker. The Pace Projector is predicting that this race may favor runners on or near the lead, and Yamano Maker is predicted to be in front early. This colt showed promise at the start of his career but has since disappointed in two starts against winners. I’m hoping the switch to turf may wake him up since he certainly has some pedigree to handle it. Empire Maker is a 13 percent turf sire, and his dam was a winner sprinting on turf in Japan. She has produced Japanese Group 3 turf winner Meisho Naruto as well as dirt performer Epicharis. Yamano Maker drilled four furlongs over the Belmont turf course Sunday and appeared to take to it very well.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,9
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with ALL
RACE 5: BRONXVILLE (#6)
The two runners likely to attract the most support are dropping out of tougher spots and coming off extended layoffs. Into the Breach and Zipman are clearly the fastest runners in this field, but it’s difficult to trust either one at short prices. Zipman’s overall form was stronger when last seen at Del Mar in the summer, but his claim was voided Aug. 4. Into the Breach’s form had already declined when he returned for Kiaran McLaughlin last year. They both are switching back to dirt for new trainers. I’m going to try to beat these runners with Bronxville. This 3-year-old has greater upside than the two aforementioned rivals, and I believe he’s going to appreciate this turnback in distance. His connections have been intent on trying to stretch him out, but I believe this horse actually wants to run shorter. Bronxville ran deceptively well in his most recent start, engaging in a spirited early duel through unreasonable fractions before fading in a race that fell apart. A repeat of either of his recent TimeformUS Speed Figures (88 and 94) should make him quite formidable. Furthermore, Ray Handal does very well with turnbacks on dirt, going 7 for 25 (28 percent, $2.68 ROI) with that move over the past five years.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 3,8
RACE 7: DYNA PASSER (#5)
Even though I’ve landed on the potential favorite, this is a very intriguing maiden race with many possible contenders. Dyna Passer may end up as the public choice, but she would only be a lukewarm one if that is the case. It’s no surprise that his filly moved up significantly with the switch to turf given her strong pedigree for this surface. She made a wide run to finish a strong second going 9 furlongs on Feb. 17 and then followed that up with another runner-up performance going slightly shorter last time. She was disqualified to third that day for some minor contact in the lane, but it did not have a major impact on her performance. While she ran well in both of those starts, I’m confident that she will be able to take another step forward as she stretches out to a marathon distance for the firs time. This filly is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Sadler’s Joy, who is best going 1 1/2 miles. Her steady, grinding style should be well suited to longer assignments and she possesses the tactical speed to work out a great trip in this spot. She’s getting a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz for this race, so it seems that primed for a top effort. Many will gravitate towards the filly just to her outside, To a Friend, who was running on well to be fourth in that same April 13 race. To a Friend saved ground in the early going and was finishing with good interest despite having to shift out late. Jonathan Thomas has great statistics with second time starters, but I wonder if she will be overbet merely due to the fact that she’s more lightly-raced than Dyna Passer. The other filly that I want to use prominently is Decorating. She’s been knocking on the door at this level for quite a while, but she’s never been afforded the opportunity to try a marathon trip. She is supposed to relish this distance as a daughter of Galileo out of a Theatrical mare. Furthermore, her most recent effort at Santa Anita is not nearly as bad as it seems, since she was buried in traffic for the entire stretch drive. Tom Proctor has been off to a slow start in 2019, but this filly seems to be well placed. The one other runner that I would use at a price is Team Win. She did not get the most savvy ride last time when she was unwisely rated off a slow pace. If Irad Ortiz is more aggressive this time, she could be dangerous on the front end.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6,7,9
Trifecta: 5 with 2,6 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10
RACE 8: EXPERT (#2)
Preservationist has been favored in all six of his starts. He was bet down to 4-5 in his last outing in February, but he did not exactly perform to that support, just barely getting his nose across the wire first in a desperate finish. He owns some of the fastest speed figures in this field, and the distance does not figure to pose a problem. The only major question is fitness since he has needed a start off longer layoffs in the past, and this may be a prep for a later target. I’m definitely using him, but I prefer his main rival, Expert. This horse has completely turned his career around this year. He hinted at improving form all the way back in January and has continued to progress at an accelerated rate since moving into Linda Rice’s barn. He embarrassed a good allowance field April 6 and then did well to overcome a slow pace and a strong rail bias April 27. The fact that he was able to earn a career-best speed figure going a distance that may be too short for him while overcoming adversity illustrates just how powerful he is at this moment. Expert has relished 1 1/8 miles in the past, so today’s stretch-out in distance only figures to enhance his prospects. Furthermore, Rice knows how to keep these types in form. Over the past five years, she is 8 for 17 (47 percent, $2.82 ROI) with 4-year-old and older last-out winners going from sprints to routes on dirt. I’m not trying to beat him. The two other major players are Bon Raison and Timber Ghost. Both are in solid form, but I’m somewhat concerned about them replicating their top performances at this distance. If I were going to upgrade one of those, it would be Bon Raison. At least this Carlos Martin trainee has won going 1 1/8 miles in the past against cheaper company.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with 1,4,5,6