by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 2B - 5
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 5: 6 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 6: 3 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 3 - 8 - 4
Race 8: 5 - 8 - 1 - 2
Race 9: 7 - 1/1A - 3 - 5
RACE 4: ANITA PARTNER (#6)
The two runners likely to attract most of the attention are In the Lee and Pas de Soucis. The former is a deserving favorite after finishing second to the talented Inflexibility in her 4-year-old debut last time out. This filly showed promise last season and figures to take a step forward in her second start off the layoff. Furthermore, she possesses early speed, which should be an asset in this small field. Pas de Soucis made an encouraging U.S. debut last fall, beating an allowance field at Saratoga as the favorite. However, her absence since that start is of some concern as she now resurfaces in the stable of Jorge Abreu. It’s possible that she will have to improve to defeat In the Lee, which may be a tall order coming off the layoff. I’m using both of these fillies, but my top selection is the new face, Anita Partner. Watching all of this filly’s recent California starts, it’s clear that she’s had some subtle trouble on a number of occasions. Things did not go right in her two recent starts down the hill, as she was reserved too far off a slow pace last time and lost her momentum when steadying in traffic two back. She had been in very good form last year, and I don’t mind this stretch-out in distance. In fact, a one-turn mile may be perfect for her. Some may view the switch out of Jeff Mullins’s barn as a negative, but I’m not sure that this is actually much of a trainer switch, given that she was training at Santa Anita as recently as two weeks ago.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 4,5 with 4,5,7
RACE 5: MISS MONK (#6)
While I don’t usually waste time endorsing favorites, I do feel that Miss Monk is a very likely winner of this race and can serve as a potential key horse in multirace wagers. Miss Monk has arguably run better than it appears in both of her starts. Both of those 7 1/2- furlong races featured fast paces (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs) that fell apart. Miss Monk sped off to the lead in each start before tiring. The horse chasing her on the lead last time, La Naturel, returned with a solid effort in a six-furlong race here earlier in the meet, validating the speed figure she received at Gulfstream. Furthermore, there were some quality performers in those races, so this spot may represent a class drop. Miss Monk must prove that she can handle a true turf sprint, and Alan Goldberg has solid numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 14 ($2.17 ROI) with maidens turning back from routes to sprints between five and six furlongs on turf. As for her rivals, I don’t trust Pocket Book to get six furlongs, and the rest of this group has yet to prove that they’re fast enough to win this race.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,3,5,7
RACE 6: FOLLOW THE SIGNS (#3) / KING OF SPADES (#7)
This is one of the most confusing races on the card, as you can make a solid case for any number of runners. My top pick is Follow the Signs, who returns from a layoff of nearly six months. This horse significantly improved when switched to turf last season, running well against a salty group in August before blowing the doors off a maiden-claiming field in his next start. Claimed out of that race by Steve Asmussen, he actually ran very well in his only start against winners last fall. He was dueling with the speedy River Knight on the lead as the pair opened up seven or eight lengths on the rest of the field down the backstretch. He put away that foe and did well to hang on for third after setting such fast early splits. The many layoffs in his past performances are a concern, but the New York division of this barn does well with runners off layoffs. Over the past five years, Asmussen’s New York stable is 6 for 28 ($2.51 ROI) off layoffs of 120 to 240 days at Aqueduct and Belmont. There is not much early speed in this field outside of Harlan’s Hunch, so Follow the Signs should work out a decent stalking trip. A number of entrants exit the sixth race on April 28, including Harlan’s Hunch. He was a problem in the stretch that day as he veered out into rivals and was justifiably disqualified. The horse who may have taken the worst of it was King of Spades, who was making a strong run into contention. This gelding had run some strong races last year before tailing off, and his return effort suggests that he may be back in top form. He’s the other one to use at a price.
Win: 3,7
Exacta: 3,7 with 2,3,6,7,8,10,11
Trifecta: 3 with 6,7,8 with 2,6,7,8,10,11
RACE 7: DRY MARTINI (#5)
O Shea Can U See can certainly win this race if he repeats his last performance. However, he got an absolutely perfect trip that day, and it’s now been 2 1/2 months since that effort. He was a vet scratch on April 6, so it appears that something has interrupted his training in the interim. I think he’s vulnerable at a short price in this spot. Flipped is a viable alternative given his recent dirt efforts, but I actually prefer Robertino Diodoro’s other horse, Dry Martini, at what figures to be a better price. He made his first start off the claim for this barn in a maiden special weight race at Belmont earlier this month, and he didn’t run nearly as poorly as his fifth place finish might suggest. He was obviously full of run heading around the far turn, but David Cohen had to wait for room while sitting in behind runners. Ultimately, he was forced to wait a bit too long and ended up losing momentum. Even when he finally got out of that spot in the lane, he had to alter course a few times before finally finding a clear path. This gelding ran competitive speed figures in some prior starts at Oaklawn and he figures to appreciate this logical drop in class.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,8
RACE 9: LIL COMMISSIONER (#7)
High Promise is the horse to beat as he returns to turf in his second start off the layoff. He faced some nice runners on grass last year, including eventual stakes winner Dalarna at Monmouth. I do wonder if a mile is a bit short for him, but he is nevertheless a deserving favorite, especially when coupled with stablemate Moneigh Moproblems. Stock Trade seems like a viable alternative after running well despite a mildly uncomfortable trip last time at Gulfstream. However, he doesn’t get much class relief despite the drop in for a tag. I’ll use him, but my top selection at what figures to be a better price is Lil Commissioner. If this horse can run back to his turf debut on Oct. 1, he has a big chance to pull off the upset. That day, he made a strong late run at Sand Dancer, who has proven to be a stakes-quality runner in subsequent starts. They left the rest of the field far behind, but others have also come out of that race to do well. Something may have happened to necessitate the lengthy layoff thereafter, but he comes back in the right kind of spot.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5