by David Aragona
The second week of the spring-summer meet at Belmont begins with a Thursday card that features a carryover of more than $147,000 in the Pick-6. The sequence does not look easy, as there are a number of competitive races and seemingly vulnerable favorites scattered through the latter half of this card.
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Race 1: 6 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 4: 1 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 6 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 6: 5 - 1 - 8 - 6
Race 7: 8 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 8: 6 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 9 - 11 - 7 - 8
RACE 3: SHOW ME THE BUCKS (#2)
The two runners likely to attract the bulk of support in this race are Almithmaar and Earned Success, who are both stretching out for the first time off maiden wins. I prefer Almithmaar, who did well to win at Keeneland last time after setting a fast early pace. It’s unclear how far he wants to go, and he may ultimately be meant for turf given his dam’s accomplishments on that surface. He also will have to deal with his speedy Chad Browntrained rival in the early going. He’s talented, but I want to take a shot against him with Show Me the Bucks, who actually finished ahead of the favorite when they met in their respective debuts at Gulfstream. Almithmaar probably ran the better race that day despite losing, but I think Show Me the Bucks may have more room for improvement going long on the dirt. This Bill Mott runner’s second start is better than it appears. He was away slowly on a day that was favoring horses with speed (note the red color-coded Race Rating box in TimeformUS PPs). The winner of that race is talented, and others that were trying to close from off the pace – namely the third- and fifth-place finishers – returned to improve in subsequent starts. Show Me the Bucks is out of a dam that was successful routing and sire Tiz Wonderful is a solid stamina influence. The one other runner to consider is The Money Dance, who ships in from Oaklawn. He's been facing slightly weaker company, but he is one of the few runners in this race that is proven at the distance.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5 with 3,4,5,6
RACE 4: SMALL ROW GIRL (#1)
There are plenty of attractive pedigrees in this initial juvenile turf sprint of the NYRA season. Among the first-time starters, Our Passion, Hot Honey, and Toonie Loonie are all well bred for this surface. It will be worth watching the tote board and listening to Maggie Wolfendale’s paddock analysis to see which, if any, are live. They’re all usable, but the runners that interest me most are those with experience. No Limit Babe and Small Row Girl exit the same Keeneland maiden race. The former obviously did more running, as she overcame some minor early traffic to finish second at 86-1 for a low-profile outfit. As a daughter of Artie Schiller, she has a right to take to the turf, but she’s going to be a much shorter price given the trainer and rider upgrade for this second attempt. I actually prefer Small Row Girl at a bigger price. While she finished far back in that race, she never really had a chance to run. Shuffled out of position early, she was heavily restrained for the next quarter-mile while racing in traffic, and only got clear when the race was essentially over. Mike Maker knows how to get young horses to wake up on grass, and this filly is by Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Magician.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5,6
RACE 5: DA WILDCAT GIRL (#6) / SOXY RUBY (#7)
The Cake Is a Lie and Loose should vie for favoritism here, but I’m not enamored with either of them at short prices. Loose, in particular, seems like a bad bet. Her published past performances make her appear more talented than she actually is. S was a weak second in a 4-horse field last time and beat up on a pitiful group in her prior start. The Cake Is a Lie appears to be dropping in class, but she met a below par field in that allowance race last time and benefitted from the slow early pace. There are two horses that interest me in this race, and both should be solid prices. Soxy Ruby has run better than it appears in each of her last two starts. She was shuffled out of position two back, and then compromised by a slow pace last time. She fits at this level and may appreciate the switch to Belmont, given her running style. Da Wildcat Girl is another that has been pace-compromised recently. She was basically eased two back when overmatched in the Xtra Heat, and didn’t run much worse than Loose in that Apr. 20 race.
Win: 6,7
Exacta: 6,7 with 1,5,6,7
RACE 8: ZENBENNIE (#6)
Vortex Road is clearly the horse to beat following her strong second-place finish in her first turf start against New York-breds last time. She had improved significantly this winter down in Florida, and showed that she could transfer that form to New York. Racing in tight quarters around the far turn, it took a while for Trevor McCarthy to work her into the clear, but she came with a solid late run through the final eighth. Now she gets a rider switch to Javier Castellano as she attempts to stretch out to nine furlongs. She appears to be the most likely winner, but her lack of speed could be a liability in this paceless race. That’s why I’m taking a shot against her with Zenbennie, who figures to be the third choice in the wagering. She finished behind Vortex Road last time, but had a right to need that race after a series of layoffs. Furthermore, she set an honest pace and lost momentum when briefly ducking into the gap around the eighth pole. This time, she should be able to control affairs up front, and early speed can be especially dangerous going this distance on the inner turf course at Belmont. I think she will be awfully tough if she gets back to her form from last fall.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 2,4
RACE 9: ALIEN INVASION (#9)
Fact Check is the kind of horse that you need to use in any multi-race bets, but he doesn’t figure to offer much value as the strong favorite in this spot. He’s been a bit of a money burner throughout his career, losing as the favorite in three straight starts. He now returns from the layoff while making his first start off the claim for Jason Servis, who has excellent stats in these situations. The fact that he’s not entered for a tag also may be a good sign, but I still want to take a shot against him. The horse who should offer the best value is Alien Invasion. It’s worth watching the trips that this horse got down in Florida, as he was especially difficult to control in those races. It wasn’t even his rider’s fault, as the horse did himself no favors by breaking slowly and rushing up into contention in his last two starts. His effort two back illustrates that he does have some turf ability, if he can finally get his act together. I think the turnback to a sprint distance may be just what he needs, since the faster pace of a race like this should prevent him from getting so eager in the early stages. After all, he did win his debut sprinting on dirt, despite turf apparently being his preferred surface.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 4,7,8,11