by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 2:   1 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 3:   3 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   4 - 2 - 9 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 6:   5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 7:   7 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 9:   3 - 1 - 9 - 6

PLAYS

 
RACE 6: TIMELY TRADITION (#5)
This race is lacking contenders with strong recent form. Clairvoyant Lady may go off as the favorite merely due to her overall consistency. She put forth her typical solid effort in her first start off the claim for Linda Rice last time, briefly looming as a threat before settling for third. Rice has given her plenty of time since then and brings her back at the same class level for which she was acquired two back. I’m using her, but there are many others to consider. Friend of Liberty once would have beaten this field with ease, but her form has steadily declined over the past year. Summer Punch might have been the favorite in this race if not for her last outing. She was in a tough spot that day, but she had previously handled wet tracks and was never in the bridle over this one. Given my reservations about the aforementioned runners, I want to take a shot with Timely Tradition at a much better price. Her recent form seems somewhat inferior to the fastest races of her rivals, but she seems to be heading in the right direction in a race where others are not. Racing off the claim for Rob Atras last time, she was unusually keen in the early going while rating behind a slow pace. She swung outside in the lane, but no one was doing any passing at that point in the race. She now goes out for Antonio Arriaga, who can be sneaky off the claim. I like that she’s been more aggressive in her recent starts, is in solid form, and is getting a rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,6
 

RACE 8: STEAM ENGINE (#3)
With the scratch of Elios Milos, Smokin Platinum becomes the horse to beat. This 4-year-old has some talent, but he has been having trouble breaking from the gate ever since he returned from the layoff in 2018. He leaves the stalls with the field but then can’t accelerate at the same rate over the first few jumps, putting him at a disadvantage. He also has a tendency to get too keen and make premature moves. He’s dangerous if he works out the right trip, but I can’t trust him. Given my lack of confidence in the older horses, I’m taking a shot with the returning 3-year-old Steam Engine. This colt took advantage of a mild rail bias when he earned his maiden score last October, but he did so over a decent field. Frosted Ice, who defeated him in his debut, returned to win a stakes, so he’s faced runners of some quality. Brad Cox does not have the strongest layoff statistics in dirt sprints, but his barn has been sending out live runners in recent weeks at Belmont. This speedy colt will have to deal with Foolish Ghost and Oh My Papa on the front end, but he breaks sharply and may be able to get the jump on them. He’s going to be dangerous with any improvement on his juvenile form.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with ALL