by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   9 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 5:   5 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   1 - 5 - 8 - 7

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: CREATIVE PRINCESS (#2)
The two fillies likely to attract the most attention are exiting the same May 4 maiden race. Presumptuous undoubtedly put forth a better effort than Golden Award that day. She got stopped in traffic in upper stretch and had to weave her way through the pack to get up into second behind an impressive winner. Golden Award finished about six lengths behind her, but she was making her debut and does have a chance to improve with that experience under her belt. Due to the lack of pace in this race, some may be tempted to pick Mockery. However, I’m skeptical about her overall ability. She was allowed to set a fairly slow pace in her best dirt effort on Dec. 17, and her most recent performance at Aqueduct was decidedly subpar. It doesn’t appear that she’s improved much since her 2- year-old season. Since I’m not enamored with any of these options, I’m taking a shot with the wild card, Creative Princess. This filly was surprisingly green in her debut. Todd Pletcher’s runners are typically prepared to put forth professional efforts in their unveilings, but she looked like she had no idea what was going on. She was ducking in and out in the early stages and was trying to bolt on the turn as Trevor McCarthy did everything he could to keep her straight. She’s been gone for 2 1/2 months since then, and that Pletcher brings her back in a maiden special weight race rather than dropping her leads me to believe that we’re going to see a more professional filly this time. She’s logged an improved series of workouts up at Saratoga for her return, and she may be the only horse in this race who possesses enough speed to challenge Mockery for the lead. Furthermore, over the past five years, Todd Pletcher is 24 for 63 (38 percent, $2.33 ROI) with second-time starting maidens in dirt routes who also routed in their career debuts.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5

 

RACE 4: TIZ R BELLA (#9)
There are many contenders in this wide-open race. The likely favorite is Pure Michigan, but she is difficult to trust as she returns from a yearlong layoff. While she was competitive against stakes company when last seen, that was just a four-horse field where the winner dominated. Her prior two efforts were not spectacular, and I’m not thrilled with any runner exiting the Brad Cox barn. Cause Me Grief also deserves a look based on Wesley Ward’s recent run of success, but she was facing a vastly inferior field in her turf debut last time. If I’m going to entertain a new face, I want it to be Little Code, who was actually facing a strong group at Monmouth last time when she rallied well to split the field. Prior to that, she had defeated the solid filly Spring Drama at Tampa Bay Downs, so she appears to stack up well against this group in terms of class. However, her rider typically struggles to win turf races on this circuit, so I can’t bring myself to pick her on top. Instead, I’m going with Tiz R Bella. This filly’s last effort represented a significant improvement on her lackluster 2018 debut. She was out of position throughout but was running on well late in a race that pretty much held together up front despite the honest pace. The addition of blinkers could put her closer to the early pace, and she obviously has efforts from last season that would make her a player here.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,5,6,7

 

RACE 5: GIO DUDE (#5)
This rare, high-priced unconditioned claiming race drew a diverse group, making it especially challenging to compare the class of the participants. One horse that will take some money that I can easily dismiss is Hills Pond. This horse was not considered a threat when overmatched against a much tougher N1X field last time, so the rest of the runners let him dawdle along on the front end. The race turned into a sprint to the wire, and he was badly outclassed from the quarter pole to the finish. However, as we often see in longer turf races, he still earned a pretty high speed figure because the rest of the field ran at Hills Pond’s pace for 75% of the race. That number is not indicative of his ability, and his prior form indicates that he’s overmatched here. I believe that the horse to beat is Cullum Road. He ran well to defeat a solid group at Keeneland last time and would be formidable if he were to repeat that performance here. Furthermore, his tactical speed should make him dangerous in a race that does not feature much early pace. Others to consider include On Patrol, who did well to rally through traffic when facing older horses last time. Ride to the Sunset was visually impressive when rocketing past a weaker field last month. Even Factor This has to be considered a contender given his prior turf form, which is better than it appears. I’ll use them all in some capacity, but the horse who interests me most at a square price is Gio Dude. This runner took a step forward when he got on turf this winter and has significantly improved even since his February debut on this surface. His April 7 performance is much better than it looks. He was facing tougher older horses while chasing an extremely fast pace three-wide. Charnley River, who set that pace, and Carbon Data, who was the other one chasing, both finished off the board yet would be favored in this field based on their surrounding efforts. Gio Dude’s next start against straight 3-year-olds is worth watching, as his rider inexplicably dragged him out of the race immediately after the start. He had never been ridden as a deep closer before, yet his rider was intent on placing him last early. The pace was not fast, so Gio Dude actually ran exceptionally well to get as close as he did by the finish. The first two finishers were nice horses, and there’s an argument to be made that Gio Dude is now dropping into the easiest field of winners that he has yet faced. He also gets a massively positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,6
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 1,4,6,8

 

RACE 6: DATA DEPENDENT (#5)
Mominou is clearly the horse to beat based on her two turf efforts. While she did disappoint as the 4-5 favorite last time, the winner of that race ran very well and she still earned a competitive speed figure. I do have some reservations about her handling the stretch-out to seven furlongs given her lackluster finish last time, but she is nevertheless a deserving favorite. Broadway Run ran well to win her debut, but she was a big price that day and now gets a class test at a fraction of those odds. Beckoning is the wild card after a dull effort against better horses in her U.S. debut. I’ll use both defensively, but the horse that I want to bet is Data Dependent. This filly showed real ability as a two-year-old, as she impressively broke her maiden at Belmont, and then finished a strong second behind top turf filly Daddy Is a Legend at Del Mar. Things have not gone well so far during her three-year-old campaign, but I think she’s had some excuses. She got relatively wide trips in both of those two efforts and may not have appreciated less than firm going. Now she’s getting back to one turn and she should get an honest pace to close into. Furthermore, I think it’s a good sign that Chad Brown is running her back just 6 weeks after such a dull effort.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,7,8

 

RACE 8: CACHE (#1)
I respect impressive maiden winner Alberobello, who is likely to attract plenty of support as she goes out for the Todd Pletcher barn. She ran a fast race at Keeneland last time and Pletcher wins at a very high percentage with horses coming off maiden wins in dirt sprints. I strongly prefer her to Greatreviews. She was a visually impressive winner last time, but that field was far weaker than the one she faces here. Some speed figures indicate that it was a fast race, but I’m not buying it, as neither she nor any of her competition had previously run fast enough to validate those numbers. I think Alberberllo’s biggest competition will come from Cache. While she’s been somewhat of a disappointment since impressively breaking her maiden, I think she’s going to appreciate getting back to a sprint. She also gets a needed drop in class after running in two very tough spots immediately after winning her debut. She actually didn’t run that badly in the Davona Dale after encountering some traffic in upper stretch, and then she just failed to handle two turns next time out. This is the right spot for her, and her debut effort indicates that she does have real talent.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,6,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 3,4,6,8