PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 1A - 3 - 6
Race 4:   2 - 9 - 4 - 8
Race 5:   7 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 6:   2 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 7:   6 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 9:   12 - 1A - 2 - 4

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 6

Linda Rice has a pair of runners in this starter allowance who could each attract support. I’m less inclined to respect She Caught My Eye (#5), who didn’t have much of an excuse last time, other than the 9-furlong distance. She’s generally been most effective at cheaper levels. Maggie T (#6) is a little more interesting as she wheels back on short rest, and that move has worked well for Linda Rice. She was setting a fast pace that came apart last time. She earned a competitive 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and the distance doesn’t appear to be an issue. Wishing On a Star (#7) is a tough call for me because she’s run better than the results indicate in each of her last two races. She got a nightmare trip two back when getting rank down the backstretch, forcing her rider to steady her out of position until she was last on the turn. Then last time she again got extremely rank in the early stages trying to rate behind horses before ultimately tipping outside to close for second. She can win here if she puts it all together, but that tendency to fight her riders is a concern. Perhaps drawing outside will allow her to overcome that issue. My top pick is Dashing Della (#2). She just feels like a lightly raced 3-year-old who is heading in the right direction. She gradually improved with distance this winter, and showed good speed when she broke her maiden two back. She looked overmatched when she stepped up to face winners at this level last time, but she actually ran a nice race. The pace was honest, and she made an early move to challenge for the lead on the far turn before flattening out at the end. Her tactical speed figures to play well again here and she can beat these with another slight step forward.

Fair Value:
#2 DASHING DELLA, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 8

This optional claiming turf sprint seems particularly wide open, so I want to keep an open mind with regard to price on those that I’m considering. My general feeling is that I would take a skeptical view of Big Package (#7), who returns from a lengthy layoff with a claiming tag attached for the first time in his career. It couldn’t have been the plan to miss the last few months of turf season, and he was uncharacteristically dull the last time we saw him in 2022. He’s the most talented horse in this field at his best, but I’m not sure we’re going to see his top performance here. The alternative who interests me most is Doctor Jeff (#2). I know he looks a little slow on speed figures, but he has a few advantages over this field. He appears to possess the best early speed of anyone in here, so he figures to make the lead from his rail draw, and the pace doesn’t appear to be that competitive. He showed real affinity for turf when he won the Atlantic Beach as a 2-year-old, and he hasn’t been on the surface since then. I like that he got in a prep off the layoff last time at Laurel on dirt. That was a tough spot, and he got an uncomfortable trip, shuffled back early and checked in the stretch. I expect him to take a step forward second of the layoff for capable connections. I could also use the other speed Fluid Situation (#6), who may take up a stalking role from his wider draw. He ran well to win on turf at Aqueduct last October and basically maintained that form at Tampa through the winter. He should be better suited to this 6-furlong distance, and may get dismissed at a fair price. I could even be enticed to throw in Seven Scents (#1), who clearly has the ability to beat a field like this on his best day. The problem is that Tom Morley is just 2 for 50 (4%, $0.59 ROI) off 120 to 240 day layoffs over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#2 DOCTOR JEFF, at 4-1 or greater
#6 FLUID SITUATION, at 6-1 or greater