by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 2:   1/1A - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 4:   2 - 7 - 10 - 3
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 6:   5 - 4 - 3 - 10
Race 7:   2/2B - 1 - 8 - 6
Race 8:   5 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 9:   7 - 11 - 3 - 2

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: ORBOLUTION (#2)
Lion in Wait and Miss Munnings figure to vie for favoritism if this race remains on the grass. Lion in Wait has been a terror at Belmont Park, having finished in exacta in 9 of 10 starts over these turf courses. She is effective from both leading and stalking positions, and she handles firm or soft going. While she has benefited from good trips in many of her triumphs, she usually makes her own racing luck. She made one start this winter at the Fair Grounds, and her effort was not as poor as it seems. She was meeting a tougher field than today's group, and was unwisely rated early before having to alter course in the stretch. I slightly prefer her to her main rival. Miss Munnings required 9 starts to break the maiden, but has been improving steadily and now appears to be in the best form of her career at age 6. She won both of her starts at Gulfstream this winter, most recently making slingshot last-to-first move before drawing off impressively in the finest effort of her career. She now returns from 3-month layoff, which is not Kimmel's strong suit, but she is a contender nonetheless. I’m using both of these mares, but my top pick is the returning 4-year-old filly Orbolution. I don’t often endorse horses returning from 18-month layoffs, but Pletcher has remarkable statistics in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 8-for-17 (47%, $4.55 ROI) off 300+ day layoffs in turf routes. Orbolution showed some serious ability as a 2-year-old, winning both of her Spa turf starts in the summer of 2017. She sustained a nightmare trip in the Breeders' Cup to end that season, getting locked in on the rail with nowhere to go for the entire stretch drive. She appears to be training very well for her return, and can improve her speed figures with natural maturity.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 6,7,8
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 5,6,8
 

RACE 3: MILITIAMAN (#1)
Chantry Flats is clearly the horse to beat based upon his series of runner-up finishes at this level. He arguably put forth the best effort of his career in his return at Aqueduct in April, earning a field-best 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He held well after setting the pace while only getting run down by a Chad Brown second-time starter. John Velazquez takes the reins today and he figures to try to take to this field from gate to wire once again. I’m using him prominently, but there are some intriguing lightly raced alternatives who may be able to step forward. Chad Brown has entered a pair. Pioneer Dancer may attract more support, but he finished behind Chantry Flats last time with no apparent excuse. I actually prefer his stablemate Militiaman, who makes his second career start after debuting at Gulfstream in March. He was off a step slowly that day and was guided to the back of the pack to save ground into the clubhouse turn. Impressive debut winner Largent dominated that one-mile event on the front end, so Militiaman was somewhat compromised by his early position. Irad Ortiz attempted to commence a rally on the far turn, but was forced to steer this son of Broken Vow into the 5-path, losing significant ground around the bend. The colt then displayed some signs of greenness in the stretch as he attempted to lug in under left-handed encouragement. He’s been given some time to mature since that performance, and now he stretches out to a more appropriate distance. This half-brother to Grade 1 winner Union Strike and Grade 2 winner Handsome Mike is bred to have a nice future.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6,7
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 5,6,7,11
 

RACE 6: EXCEED THE GOAL (#5)
Nisha deserves to go off as the favorite in this spot, but she’s one of a few short prices in this $12,500 claimer who is difficult to trust. The 5- year-old mare certainly knows how to win races, having crossed the wire in front in 9 of her 14 starts. However, she’s quickly been descending the class ladder and now is dropping in for half the price that she competed for last time. Dropdowns such as this are not usually encouraging signs for Danny Gargan, so it’s reasonable to expect her to regress. Letmetakethiscall seems like a viable alternative, but she is also not reliable either after tiring badly against New York-bred allowance company last time. And then there’s Riot Worthy, who is the race’s biggest wild card. She would obviously beat this field if she got back to her 2017 form, but she has not been seen in nearly 16 months and this placement is highly concerning. Therefore, I want to take a shot with a filly who actually belongs at this level. Exceed the Goal faced New York-bred N1X allowance company in her most recent start, but she had been competing in low-level claimers prior to that and will likely appreciate returning to her preferred class level. She put forth a strong effort in her first start off the claim for David Duggan two back, and would be formidable here if she were to repeat that performance. Some may be deterred by her disappointing last effort, but she didn’t get the best trip that day. She now picks up Jose Ortiz for this return to the claiming ranks, and I believe she would offer value at anything close to her morning line price.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6,10
 

RACE 7: NORTHERN HAZE (#2) / SOUL FIGHT (#2B)
There are many runners to consider in this wide-open affair, assuming it stays on grass. Among those with turf form, the horse to beat is probably Real Money, who showed promise racing over this surface as a 2-year-old. He showed speed in his debut going a mile before fading and he has been flattered since that race, as both horses who finished ahead of him have gone on to Grade 3 stakes success. He got the wrong trip in the Futurity next time out and then faded going 6 furlongs against maidens at Aqueduct. He clearly possesses plenty of speed, but I’m concerned about him negotiating the 7-furlong distance in his return. Chad Brown has entered a pair of runners, who are each one half of two separate entries. The Shadwell pair seems likely to attract more money, and Chad Brown sends out the more fancied half Sayyaaf. This horse was working very well prior to his debut at Gulfstream, which prompted Brown to give dirt a try despite his unambiguous turf pedigree. He showed speed before fading that day and now shifts over to the appropriate surface. Sire Sepoy was a star turf sprinter in Australia and has compiled an impressive stud career down under. Sayyaaf’s Aljabr-sired dam was unraced but she is a half-sister to Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup winner Alwajeeha. I’m definitely using this horse, but I think there are some viable alternatives in this race who may get dismissed at more attractive prices. One of those wagering units is the John Terranova entry comprising second time starter Northern Haze and firster Soul Fight. The former was sluggish and green through the early stages of his debut, but he was running on well through the stretch, putting in a fast final quarter mile time despite finishing well back. Northern Haze then proceeded to gallop out strongly past the wire under some mild encouragement from Junior Alvarado. The whole thing seemed orchestrated to give him a race first out, and he should be much fitter for this second start. The more appealing half of the entry for many may be the debuting colt Soul Fight. This son of Pioneerof the Nile is a half-brother to a 2-time turf winner, and hails from a classy female family. More importantly, John Terranova is a remarkable 5 for 17 (29 percent, $14.31 ROI) with first time starters in turf sprints over the past 5 years. If this pair is anything close to their morning line price of 8-1, I think they’re worth a shot.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6,8
 

RACE 9: TAPPANZEE (#7) / TRADEABLE (#11)
If this race remains on the turf, I think it’s necessary to look beyond the favorites. I respect Merlins Muse, who ran fairly well in her return at Aqueduct in April, but she’s not exactly a formidable favorite. She broke a step slowly and was wide throughout, but that was not the strongest field for the level. Horses like Ailish and Lila Ruth are worth considering off lengthy layoffs, but both may need to improve to break through at this level. I’m interested in a pair of longer prices, both of whome are 15-1 on the morning line. My top selection is Tappanzee, who was starting to show some improved form on the grass at the end of last year. She ran well to be second behind impressive maiden winner Jot in November. Schettino was then forced to switch her to dirt for the winter, but she continued improving on that surface, running deceptively well on Dec. 23 before breaking her maiden in February. You can throw out her last race since she got a terrible trip after breaking slowly, and now she’s getting back on the right surface. My second pick is Tradeable, who figures to be a similarly enticing price. This filly showed promise at Saratoga last summer, running second in her debut before winning a maiden race. She was then stepped up in class to face open company in the Matron and she hardly disgraced herself while splitting the field to finish 6th. She didn’t do quite as well in the Stewart Manor at the end of the season, but she was too close to the pace and wide on the turn that day. Now she’s returning in a much easier spot to kick off her 3-year-old campaign and she, too, will be generous odds for connections who rarely take money.

Win/Place: 7
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 7,11 with 2,3,7,8,9,11