by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 8 - 2 - 9
Race 3: 3 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 8 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 1A - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 6: 8 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 5
Race 8: 2 - 11 - 8 - 4
RACE 3: PROSCHEMA (#3)
T Loves a Fight is obviously the horse to beat as he drops back down to this N1X level after running above this condition last time. He was no match for the likes of Built to Suit and Fuel the Bern in that race, but he also may have been hindered by a slow pace and a wide trip. He had previously put forth some of the best efforts of his career at Saratoga. However, he’s been pretty busy since the new connections claimed him in May, making 8 starts in the span of just 4 months. While there are some excuses for his last performance, his speed figure did drop off a bit, so one wonders if the honeymoon phase with Orlando Noda is coming to an end. He’s still the horse to beat, but I’m not willing to accept a short price on him, especially considering that his main rival Proschema finished just a neck behind him in that Travers day allowance race. Whereas T Loves a Fight was expected to run well that day, Proschema was a surprise at 55-1. While his form for Tim Glyshaw had been decent, he had never before indicated that he was an effective sprinter. Bill Mott wheeled him back pretty quickly after that poor showing on Aug. 3 and Proschema ran the best race of his career. It’s possible that this 3-year-old is just now rounding into top form for the new barn, and it’s encouraging to see Junior Alvarado, who has ridden T Loves a Fight to victory, stay with this colt. There isn’t much pace in this race, so he may get the jump on his chief rival.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1 with ALL
RACE 6: MO MAVERICK (#8)
There are many contenders to consider in this intriguing NY-bred optional claimer. Mike Maker seems to have Shiraz back in top form after a slow start to the year. This gelding has been right there at the wire in each of his last two starts, and he’s now cutting back to arguably his best distance. The only problem is that he tends to settle for minor awards. The same thing is true of Banana Thief, who should vie for favoritism. He’s never going to win by much, but he will consistently deliver competitive efforts when he works out the right trip. Like Shiraz, he’s a definite contender, though it seems somewhat unlikely that a horse like this would compile back-to-back victories. Linda Rice has a pair of runners in this race and her go-to rider Jose Lezcano lands on Elektronic. It’s probably fair to say that he's getting some class relief, even as he moves out of restricted 3-year-old company to face older horses. This horse has ability, but he can be a little goofy at times, so needs to run a professional race against a field of this caliber. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and the front-runner figures to be Mo Maverick. Yet how will his route speed translate to this sprint distance? Kendrick Carmouche stays aboard, so he’s likely to ride him aggressively to the front, and he routinely sets sprint-like fractions in his route races, so the pace of this race should be no shock to him. The real test will come in the stretch when it’s time to kick for home, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has enough left in the tank going this distance, especially since a number of his rivals haven’t shown a great willingness to pass horses late. Mo Maverick sprinted effectively on dirt as a 2-year-old, so it’s possible that this turnback is exactly what he needs.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,7,9
RACE 7: CHATEAU (#4)
There are three main contenders in this race and two of them are trained by Jason Servis. Happy Farm figures to be the favorite given his pair of recent victories and impressive set of speed figures since the claim by this barn. However, he’s stepping up in class pretty significantly after facing claiming and starter allowance company in recent months. While he was impressive in victory last time, he was also riding a strong rail bias that exaggerated his margin of victory. I’m not sure that he’s actually quite as good as those recent efforts indicate and I want to take a shot against him at a short price. Fuel the Bern makes plenty of sense, since he’s already proven than he can run well at this level. This is arguably a weaker field than the one he met last time, when he was sandwiched between stakes horses Build to Suit and Eye Luv Lulu. He should sit a decent trip and Danny Gargan has been having a strong meet. I’ll use him protectively, but my top pick is actually the other Jason Servis horse, Chateau. At first glance, the 6 1/2 furlongs might seem like a stretch for this runner, but I think he’s better equipped to handle it than some may realize. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a scenario favoring the front-runner. He earned a field-best 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his last effort, as he was rewarded for surviving an extremely fast pace. The other horses who were chasing him in the early going that day finished last and second-to-last, but they returned to earn TimeformUS Speed Figures that were 28 and 23 points faster, respectively, in their subsequent starts. That leads me to believe that Chateau’s effort may have been even stronger than it appears.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,5