by David Aragona
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Race 1: 8 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 11 - 10 - 4 - 8
Race 3: 2 - 3 - 6 - 12
Race 4: 6 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 5: 11 - 9 - 13 - 1
Race 6: 2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 7: 5 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 8: 1 - 5 - 13
Race 9: 8 - 16 - 15 - 1
RACE 1: DEVIL’S FLAIR (#8)
There is very little reliable form to analyze in this race, so the best I can do is try to point out horses that I think will offer some value. There are a pair of first time starters in this field, and I think you have to take both of them seriously. Obviously, Tropical Storm Em has the better credentials, as she is a daughter of Scat Daddy going out for top debut trainer Todd Pletcher. On the other hand, her pedigree is not exactly geared towards stamina and Pletcher is in the midst of a poor run with his 2-year-olds. I’m using her, but I’m pretty wary of accepting a short price. Girl of Tosconova is a full-sister to a decent route winner and Rudy Rodriguez can also have one ready. I’m including these two, but I’m more interested in some of those with experience. One horse that I want to use prominently is Quietude. It’s probably not a good sign that she’s dropping in for a tag so early despite having sold for 6 figures as a yearling. On the other hand, she may have needed her debut and it’s not surprising that she didn’t handle turf last time since she’s not really bred for it. Added distance figures to help her, if she can run at all. The horse that I want to bet is Devil’s Flair. She made her debut on turf and didn’t show much, but I thought her dirt effort last time was better than it might appear. She was actually up close soon after the start but got shuffled back as horses jostled for position down the backstretch. Joe Bravo ended up taking her in hand behind a wall of runners and angled her to the far outside. Sep. 14 was a day when you wanted to be on the rail and indeed that 6th race was dominated by horses that stayed inside. I actually thought Devil’s Flair ran well within the context of the race to nearly get up for third despite that terrible trip. The stretch-out is a concern, but it’s an unknown for all of these and at least she figures to be a square price.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,5,7
RACE 4: BAD STUDENT (#6)
The scratch of likely favorite Turco Bravo makes Bad Student a much more likely winner, as well as a much short price. This 17-time winner was the last horse to beat Turco Bravo, accomplishing that on July 20 at Saratoga. While Bad Student seemed to relish that 9 furlongs that day, his decisive victory was very much a function of a moderate pace that hindered Turco Bravo. Bad Student looked like a probable winner in an off-the-turf race last time, but he was inexplicably rated off a slow pace in the early going, which cost him his best chance. I like him getting back to a mile as he ran one of his best recent races over this trip on May 6. I also think his running style is perfectly suited to this race, since he figures to sit right in behind the likely speeds Doyouknowsomething and Professor Snape.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5,7
RACE 6: DEARLY DECLARED (#2)
Midnitesalright can certainly win here, but she’s going to be the favorite after already having had a few chances. Horses that are as precocious as her usually don’t continue progressing into the fall of their juvenile seasons, so I think it's unwise to lean on her in this spot. Call It a Truce ran well within the context of her Sep. 15 debut, as she made a wide move around the far turn and into the lane on a day when you wanted to be on the rail. She clearly has some ability, but I have doubts about the overall quality of the race she exits. I’m using both of these fillies, but there are some interesting first time starters in this field. Saratoga Style goes out for Todd Pletcher and sports a stellar pedigree in the second generation of her female family. However, Pletcher has been on a bad run with his firsters and I have not liked what I’ve seen of her morning drills. The one that interests me most is Dearly Declared for Barclay Tagg. She, too, is bred to be a runner as a half-sister to the popular New York-bred stakes performer Saratoga Snacks, who earned nearly $700,000 during his career. This filly has shown some ability in her morning drills. She has outworked all of the stablemates with whom she’s been paired, usually while under a strong hold by her exercise rider. Barclay Tagg can certainly have one ready to fire first time out, and the barn has been in the midst of a strong run since mid-summer.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6,7