by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 2:   8 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 9 - 4 - 8
Race 4:   9 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 5:   2 - 8 - 12 - 9
Race 6:   12 - 4 - 9 - 11
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 8 - 5
Race 8:   2 - 9 - 1 - 5
Race 9:   6 - 5 - 9 - 2

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 4: GOLDEN SEAL (#9)
This race is frustrating in the sense that some of the key players are stuck on the also-eligible list. Rockin Jo and Now a Factor both ran quite well in a reasonably fast maiden race last time out and would be major factors in this spot. However, they will only draw into the body of the field if there are a few scratches. Even if they get into the race, my top pick is the first-time turfer Golden Seal. Brad Cox has awesome numbers in a variety of situations, and he gets a 100 Trainer Rating with horses switching to grass for the first time. This colt actually did some running in his debut, closing mildly late in a decent Saratoga maiden race. He's certainly bred to move up with this surface switch since he's a half-brother to four turf winners, including multiple stakes-placed runner Ack Naughty.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,4,6

 

RACE 6: THENAMEESCAPESME (#12) / O CAPTAINMYCAPTAIN (#4)
Alexander David was installed as the morning-line favorite, but this is not the kind of runner I want to bet at a short price. He hasn't made a start since January, when he was trained by Lisa Lewis, and I'm not even sure that the races he was running at Gulfstream make him all that formidable here. He's one whom you have to use, but I think there are more attractive options at better prices. One runner worth including is O Captainmycaptain, who turns back in distance after getting rank and running off in the early stages of his last race at Saratoga. The pace of that race was extremely fast, and he actually hung on reasonably well considering the circumstances. Prior to that, he had been overmatched against open company, and he's just finally landing in a more realistic spot. I'll use him, but at a similarly large price, my top pick is Tom Albertrani's other runner, Thenameescapesme. Albertrani rarely has his first-time starters ready to fire, so I expect this horse to improve on his start two back, which was the last time he competed at a sprint distance. He probably doesn't want to go two turns, but I thought he ran reasonably well last time at Saratoga despite breaking from the outside post and getting hung wide around both turns. I believe we haven't yet seen the best of this one.

Win/Place: 4,12
Exacta Key Box: 4,12 with 4,8,9,10,11,12

 

RACE 7: CLEVER ROYAL (#2)
The horse to beat in this spot is clearly Touchofstarquality, whose top races would make him awfully tough for this group to handle. The only question he has to answer is whether or not he can rebound from his uncharacteristically dull effort in the State Dinner back in July. Obviously, he's one you have to use. I'm less sure what to do with Economic Model as he attempts to rebound from a poor performance at Saratoga. The main track was favoring inside runners that day, and he was wide for his entire trip. That said, so was his stablemate Threefiveindia, and he was no match for that foe in an uncharacteristically dull performance. I've never been this runner's biggest fan, and I think he's going to get overbet here. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead since there really isn't much early speed signed on. Ocean Knight figures to lead the way early, but I'm concerned that he might not be good enough to win. Instead, I'm taking a shot with Clever Royal. This horse was claimed out of his last race at Del Mar in July and now makes his first start for the Robertino Diodoro barn. He gets a 93 Trainer Rating first off the claim, and I like that they're showing the confidence to move him up in class. When last seen, this horse was in the best form of his career, finishing just behind seasoned graded stakes performers Collected, Accelerate, and Danzing Candy in his last two starts at this distance. He has the ability to sit closer to the pace, and he figures to be a square price.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,8
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5,8 with 1,4,5,7,8

 

RACE 8: WEEKEND EXPRESS (#2)
Snap Decision is the clear-cut favorite on the morning line, and he's certainly one of the top contenders as he drops out of stakes company. His race in the Hall of Fame two back was fine, and all of the runners who finished ahead of him that day would be formidable in this spot. However, I was somewhat disappointed with his last effort. He got plenty of pace to close into, and he was supposed to be able to beat those horses with that setup. There are some seasoned older runners in this spot who won't exactly be pushovers for the less-experienced 3-year-old. The one who interests me most is Weekend Express. He didn't get the right setup two back when defeated by a top-class field that included next-out Knickerbocker winner Blacktype. Last time at Parx, he got a terrible trip, as he made a four- to five-wide run around the far turn as the winner saved ground. He's capable of running well enough to win at this level when he's on his game.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6,9