by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 2: 4 - 3 - 1 - 6 (Dirt: 6 - 10 - 9 - 8)
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 8 - 3 (Dirt: 5 - 9 - 8 - 1)
Race 5: 10 - 6 - 7 - 5 (Dirt: TBD)
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 7: 1 - 2 - 5 - 7 (Dirt: TBD)
Race 8: 1 - 2 - 8 - 5 (Dirt: TBD)
RACE 1: CURLIN ROAD (#3)
Curlin Road may end up as the favorite in this spot just because he’s more trustworthy than most of his rivals. That marathon experiment in the Birdstone didn’t work out, but his form for Rudy Rodriguez has otherwise been pretty good. It took him a while to build up momentum last time, but he eventually got there over two of today’s rivals, really leveling off nicely in the last furlong. He may have to run a bit faster to win this, but he’s shown himself to be capable of doing so. He just has to avoid getting compromised by a potential slow pace, but otherwise he’s a logical player. I’m not trying to beat him because I just don’t really trust the main alternatives. Tour de Force looks like his main rival, but this is not the kind of drop that you want to see. He was claimed for $50,000 at Saratoga and is now in for half that price 7 weeks later. David Cannizzo does not have the greatest statistics off the claim, and he’s just 5 for 40 (13%, $0.92 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50% or more over the past 5 years. Tour de Force ran races for prior trainers that would make him formidable, but he was somewhat disappointing as the favorite last time and I’m concerned that he’s heading in the wrong direction. Cannizzo’s other runner Mills appears to be in solid form, and he’s a major contender based on his last two efforts. The problem is that he just rarely wins, especially in recent seasons. The same stat used for Tour de Force applies here, but Mills ran well for this barn going back to the winter of 2018-2019. He got to the lead in mid-stretch last time and gave it up late, and that’s a concern again. He is also unlikely to get much pace to close into this time with his stablemate as the controlling speed. I’ll primarily use him underneath my top pick.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 2,5
RACE 2: JAZZY LADY (#4)
While I acknowledge that this is a tougher field than she faced in her debut, I think Jazzy Lady is likely to take a step forward in her second career start. Ray Handal has yet to win with a first-time starter in his training career, but this filly came pretty close at 9-1 in her debut. She broke a bit slowly and saved ground after that, but found herself held up behind a pretty slow pace on the far turn. She was running on well late in a race in a spot where few others made closing runs. There are some intriguing first-time starters to consider, but I’d rather go with the experienced runner in this situation. I also wouldn’t totally dismiss Positive Power at a square price. She didn’t get the most comfortable run through the lane last time in that same race and might do better if Dylan Davis is able to steer her into the clear this time. As for the firsters, Sengekontacket may take the most money as she goes out for capable debut trainer Brad Cox. She’s a half-sister to 5 turf winners and became eligible for this race when she was an RNA for $45,000 as a yearling. I would also throw in Barista Vixen, whose dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1-winning turfers Channel Maker and Johnny Bear, as well as turf-bred Noble Enterprise and the George Weaver debutante I Dare U.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,6,8
RACE 6: SUPER SILVER (#6)
Allured and Sargeant Drive figure to vie for favoritism in this spot. The former ran on decently to be second in a similar spot two weeks ago, but he was never a serious threat to the winner. He got back to the kind of solid speed figures that he was posting for Chad Brown, but it certainly didn’t feel like he put forth one of his better efforts as he failed to reel in the winner. He’s at least proven that he handles a wet track and there is plenty of rain predicted for Wednesday evening. I’m using him defensively, but I’m not enamored with the idea of betting him at a short price. Sargeant Drive is perhaps slightly more appealing given how well he ran at the starter allowance level last time. He chased home a decent horse in Dark Storm, though it is worth noting that runner did come back to run poorly last weekend. Sargeant Drive has prior dirt speed figures that would make him formidable and that last start indicates that he may be rounding back into top form for Rob Atras. The only problem with him is that he’s a one-dimensional closer in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting a No Speed situation. While he’s not depicted on the lead in the Pace Projector, I would expect Kendrick Carmouche to send Super Silver to the front, and that could make this horse quite dangerous. Super Silver exits the same starter allowance race as Sargeant Drive and he finished over 8 lengths behind him. However, this grey gelding didn’t get the right trip that day as he was rated early and shuffled back on the turn. He never really had a clear path in the lane when attempting to mount a rally. He figures to be forwardly placed in this time and he proved two back that he relishes a surface with moisture in it. He looks a bit slower than the aforementioned pair, but I think he’s found the right spot.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 4,5 with ALL