by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 8 - 7 - 9 - 3
Race 2: 1 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 5: 6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 6: 7 - 8 - 1 - 11
Race 7: 7 - 6 - 9 - 3
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 9: 1 - 4 - 9 - 3
RACE 2: CAOIMHE (#1)
These $14,000 conditioned claimers do not typically attract the cream of the crop, but this particular race has drawn a particularly weak bunch. I suppose Elizabeth Nicole is the horse to beat, since her speed should place her in front of these early. While she has been racing against straight 3- year-olds in her recent starts, a few of those were arguably tougher than this one. Some may be put off by the way she readily faded in the stretch last time, but she dueled through a very fast opening quarter mile and actually finished far ahead of the other filly involved in that pace in a race dominated by closers. This barn has been on quite a roll at this meet, and they’ve named a rider that seems to ride front-runners well. I think this is a race where it would be wise to look outside the box, so I’m taking a shot with Caoimhe. This horse looks unappealing at first glance, but I think she’s going to run much better as she turns back in distance. While her sprint races from the early summer don’t jump off the page, many of those efforts did come against tougher fields and she earned speed figures that put her in the mix. She actually ran fairly well behind the superior Promises Broken at Saratoga and then she was badly overmatched in two starts since then. Eric Cancel has a knack for getting these cheaper closing sprinters to run.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,6
RACE 4: LOCAL EDITION (#7)
Shamrock Kid will be the favorite in this race, but I’m not convinced that he’s a cinch to beat this field at a short price. I understand the argument that he may have needed his first start back off the layoff, but I still think we were supposed to see an improved effort out of him that day. It was his first start for Brad Cox off a huge trainer upgrade and he was bet down to favoritism. Considering that context, his 7th place finish was quite disappointing. Now, without even giving him another chance against maiden special weight company, he’s dropping in for the tag. I’ll use him, but there are plenty of other options. Millies Party Boy earned a speed figure in his last race that would make him very tough here, though I wonder if he can replicate that performance given the great pace setup he received that day. I’m more interested in some of the other horses out of the maiden special weight race that Shamrock Kid exits. Both Testy Kitten and Local Edition finished behind the favorite that day, but I prefer them in this spot. Testy Kitten has more obvious appeal. He earned a speed figure in his debut that would make him a major player here and he didn’t get the smoothest trip last time, when he had to alter course after getting shuffled back behind a tiring longshot on the turn. I’m using him prominently, but I think Local Edition is just as intriguing at a much better price. He finished ahead of Testy Kitten without any serious trouble last time, but now he gets back into a more realistic spot. The last time that he competed at this level, I thought he ran deceptively well. The pace of that Aug. 26 race was fast and contested and Local Edition did well to hang in for fourth despite the fact that the race collapsed the end. He seems to be steadily improving for Tom Bush and I think we could see his best performance yet in this spot.
Win: 7
Exacta Box: 4,6,7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3
RACE 5: WISECRACK (#6)
There is admittedly very little form to analyze in this maiden claiming event. Of the first time starters, New Stones appears to be somewhat wellmeant. He sold for a reasonable sum as a yearling, sports some mediocre workout times, and has attracted John Velazquez for a barn that knows how to win with youngsters. I’m using this gelding, but I’m not too enthusiastic about accepting a short price on a first time starter. Of those with experience, Strong One has to be considered a top contender despite the fact that he did no serious running in his debut. You can definitely make some excuses for that race, since he had to race over a sloppy track and was facing significantly tougher competition than what he’s meeting today. He has the pedigree to be a solid sprinter as a half-brother to New Yawker and Valiant Passion, but it is somewhat alarming that he’s dropping in for a tag so readily after selling for six figures as a yearling. I’ll use these runners, but the one that I want to bet is Wisecrack. This horse has definitely been a disappointment, taking money in both turf starts and offering up no finish whatsoever. However, on the bright side, he obviously has speed, as he set a pretty fast pace in his debut before fading. Last time out, he didn’t break as sharply and his rider came out with a plan to rate him, which just didn’t work out. Despite being a son of The Factor, who is more of a turf sire, this horse has trained very well on the dirt in the morning, so I find this surface switch intriguing. Luis Saez will certainly use his speed this time and I wouldn’t be surprised if he can take them all the way on the class drop.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3
RACE 8: HEAVY MEDDLE (#2)
With the scratch of Stoney Bennett, Shiraz may go off as the favorite here. He earned an eye-catching speed figure in that return to dirt and the runner-up returned to win impressively yesterday. However, Shiraz benefitted from a strong rail bias and I’ll be surprised if he is able to win right back with a similar performance. The scratch of Stoney Bennett has prompted me to upgrade Sudden Surprise, who may play out as the controlling speed without that rival in the race. He's faster than Shiraz in the opening stages and he has been known to get brave on the front end when afforded an uncontested lead. I don't love him, but I don't want to leave him out of the mix. I think this is a good spot to consider some horses that appear to have gone off form. One of those is Syndergaard, who obviously didn’t run his best race when he returned for John Terranova’s barn in July. He lost that race at the start when he broke behind the field, something that he has done a few times recently. Another slow break from the rail could be very problematic. On the other hand, he does have talent and can certainly win if he works out a trip. At a big price, I would also throw Arthur’s Hope into my wagers, since he has earned a number of competitive speed figures and has run in the wrong spots more often than not. I’m using both of these horses prominently, but my top pick is Heavy Meddle. I admit that I’ve never been this colt’s biggest fan, but I just think he’s finally landing in the right spot. He actually ran very well two back at Saratoga when he made a premature move into a fast pace that collapsed. He finished behind Stoney Bennett last time, but he got a very wide trip and was always out of position. I think he’s at his best over a fast track when he can work out a stalking trip, and that figures to be the case this time.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,7,8
Trifecta: 2 with 1,7,8 with 1,4,5,7,8
RACE 9: MAJOR FORCE (#1)
Field of Courage has to be considered the horse to beat as he gets some significant class relief in this spot. Rudy Rodriguez claimed this horse for $80,000 back in the spring and the gelding has proven to be a pretty disappointing investment. That’s not to say that he’s run badly in his races. Rather, they’ve campaigned him as ambitiously as you’re supposed to with such an expensive purchase and he just hasn’t quite panned out. They’re basically throwing up the white flag as they drop him in for $32,000 towards the end of the New York turf season, and he probably will get claimed. If he runs back to his effort two back at Belmont, he’s going to be a handful, but he’s also not the most consistent sort and it’s possible that he’s tailing off. I actually prefer his main rival Expected Ruler among the shorter prices. While he’s gone longer than today’s 6 furlong distance in recent starts, he’s had plenty of success going shorter in the past, so I’m not concerned about the turnback. I don’t love his last two races, but I think this move to Robert Falcone’s barn is significant, since he has developed a history of improving horses off the claim. He’s shown improved speed in recent starts and the addition of blinkers seems to suggest that they want him forwardly placed again. I’m using both of these horses, but I think there are other contenders to consider at bigger prices. I want to take a shot with Major Force. I was a fan of this gelding when he was in Linda Rice’s barn, as he did well to overcome slow paces in a couple of deceptively impressive wins on May 26 and June 22. He was overmatched and outsprinted over a very firm turf course two back in July, but his most recent effort at Saratoga was actually better than it seems. Major Force got badly outrun in the opening stages of that race and did well to close for fourth. He finished just ahead of War Stroll, who came back to defeat today’s rival Expected Ruler last time out. Antonio Arriaga is not known for his turf runners, but he has been able to improve horses off the claim. I think it’s a good sign that Javier Castellano stays aboard and some give in the ground should create a situation more conducive to a closer like him.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,7,9