PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1/1A - 3 - 2
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 1/1A - 6
Race 4:   10 - 1 - 3 - 9
Race 5:   2 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 6:   6 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 7:   7 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 3 - 8 - 4
Race 9:   8 - 1 - 7 - 4

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: FROST WISE (#4)
Tainted Angel is likely to go favored, but I don't think she has any kind of edge over this field. She was facing inferior competition in her last two starts at Finger Lakes, winning one of those at a very short price. Her prior starts at NYRA tracks certainly make her a contender here, but her closing style may not fit the flow of this race. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, which should work to the advantage of Frost Wise. There just isn't any other speed in this race, and she is predicted to be racing on a clear early lead. She has a tendency to get tired at the end of her races, but hopefully a more moderate pace will aid her finish. Michael Dilger has fantastic numbers with last-out maiden winners on dirt. Over the past five years, he is 10 for 27 (37 percent, $6.81 ROI) in such situations.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1,2 with ALL

RACE 4: FUEL THE BERN (#10)
Herecomesyourman merely has to repeat his effort from a week ago to give himself a great chance to win this race. He's cutting back to a shorter distance, but he just isn't facing any proven rivals of the same quality as Brianbakescookies, who defeated him in that similar spot last week. That said, there are a couple of intriguing alternatives to the favorite who may have a right to improve here. One of those is Rule Yourself, who drops in class while making his second start back from an extended layoff. The 5 1/2-furlong distance of his last race was probably just too short for him, and now he's stretching out to a more appropriate distance. I'll certainly use him, but my top pick is Fuel the Bern. This runner made his career debut on turf last fall, closing greenly to be a solid third behind the subsequently stakes-placed Holiday Stone. He ran well enough on dirt in his second start for them to try it again in his first start back from the layoff. However, he's probably getting back to the right surface now since he's a half-brother to three turf winners. Over the past five years, Christophe Clement is an outstanding 8 for 14 (57 percent, $5.49 ROI) with horses switching from dirt to turf in maiden-claiming races.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,3,8,9

RACE 7: ANDALUSITE (#7)
There appears to be a fair amount of speed in this race, with runners like Silver Dagger, Damage Control, and Tiznoble all having run their best recent races while running on or near the lead. I'm hoping that the pace is at least honest because I'm looking at a new face in this spot. Andalusite has been running at a variety of levels out of town, and it's usually fair to be suspicious of that form when these horses ship to New York. However, in race after race, he's been running against quality competition, and running rather well. His trainer has not had much success on this circuit, but that should only drive up the price on this viable contender. She does have success when pairing up with rider Nik Juarez, getting a 99 Trainer Rating in those situations.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,6

RACE 9: CLONEDSIMMARD (#8)
I just don't trust any of the shorter prices in this race. Giant Rocks has run a few somewhat competitive speed figures, so I suppose he deserves to be the morning-line choice. There's just nothing about his overall form that really excites me, and I wouldn't be surprised to see someone take a step forward and beat him. The problem is finding that other horse. I don't particularly want Pio's Posse, who made his debut as a 6-year-old last year and now hasn't been seen for another full calendar year while dropping in class. Charlton Baker has a pair of second-time starters, and anything he sends out must be respected. I'll use them, but my top pick is longshot Clonedsimmard. This runner just isn't really a turf horse, and his first couple of starts on dirt actually weren't that bad. He ran a very competitive speed figure when closing late in his debut, and he had significant trouble in his second start after blowing the break. He's probably going to get overlooked here, and I think he's got a reasonable chance to pull off the upset.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,7,10