by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 2:   4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   2 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   6 - 9 - 1 - 10
Race 6:   6 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 7:   5 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   6 - 8 - 4 - 5

PLAYS

 
RACE 3: TANGLED WEB (#2)
Firewater Jake is the horse to beat as he drops in class out of the Caesars Stakes at Indiana Downs. While some might view this as a negative drop, it’s not as if this colt hasn’t started for a claiming tag before. He was in for the tag in his two starts at Arlington prior to trying the stakes last time. The speed figures that he earned in those victories would make him tough here, but I do think it is fair to wonder if he’s still in that kind of form. Brad Cox sends out nothing but live runners, so I’m using him defensively. However, I want to consider some others at better prices. Baffin Bay and Southern Brigade faced off in a similar spot on Sep. 12 and the former got the job done, making a late run into a slow pace. Southern Brigade may take some money here due to the rider switch to Luis Saez, but I didn’t feel that he was ever a major danger last time. I instead prefer Tangled Web, who makes his first start off the claim for Mike Maker. This barn hasn’t had as much recent success off the claim on turf as in past seasons, but I don’t think this gelding needs to improve much to beat this field. He ran quite well last time, surviving a fast pace to hang on for second going this distance. The horse that he dueled into defeat that day, Honorable Hero, returned to win last week with an improved speed figure. Furthermore, this horse ran one of his best races over a turf course with some give to it back in June and we got plenty of rain on Tuesday. At a much bigger price, I'd also throw Halstaat into the mix underneath. This gelding is getting some needed class relief and has actually run fairly well on a few occasions while facing tougher company.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,3 with 1,3,6,7,8
 

RACE 4: RAZEENA (#2)
Trial and Error may go off as the slight favorite here after she ran second in a similar spot last time. While it was nice to see her finally run a faster speed figure that day, I didn’t think that she had any major excuse to lose as Stand for the Flag just outstayed her in the final quarter pole. That winner does have some ability, as she returned to win her next start, albeit as a 2-5 favorite at Parx. She’s the horse to beat, but she may have to contend with Bell Court on the front end. This Kiaran McLaughlin trainee had been training well into her debut, in which she was bet down to 5-2 odds. She didn’t break that sharply, but she tugged Luis Saez up into a good position and briefly looked like a potential winner before fading in the last eighth. It’s possible that she’ll improve with more distance, but her pedigree gives mixed signals. Her dam Burmilla was best as a sprinter but she is a half-sister to nice dirt router Snowbell. I think this filly has talent, but I’m a little skeptical about her going this far in her second career start. I actually want to take a shot with McLaughlin’s other runner Razeena. This filly has had more chances than most in here, but I think it’s worth noting that her only two dirt efforts in this country came over sloppy tracks. It’s unclear if she actually prefers that kind of going. She closed well into a fast pace back in May, but she just got the wrong trip last time as she got stuck behind some tiring rivals at the quarter pole and lost momentum while altering course in traffic. She handled fast dirt pretty well over in Dubai when finishing third in the UAE Oaks over the winter and she might get a decent pace setup here.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4
 

RACE 7: GETMOTHERAROSE (#5)
Rose Flower is probably the horse to beat as she drops out of stakes company down into this optional claimer. She was a little unlucky in the Christiecat as Franco had to briefly pause while trying to find a seam at the quarter pole before splitting horses. However, the main issue with her last time was the distance, since 6 furlongs just seems like it might be too short. She put in an electrifying late run going 7 furlongs in her final start in France and she’d be a handful if she could run back to that form here. Clement’s foreign shippers will sometimes need a start, so she should be ready to step forward here. That said, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and that could work against her. I prefer Getmotherarose as she steps up in class. This 3-year-old has improved by leaps and bounds since the springtime. She has steadily climbed the class ladder, winning her N1X condition last time like a filly who’s ready to take on tougher company. She traveled beautifully in the early stages that day and exploded once Jose Ortiz asked her for run. She has to get the 7 furlongs this time, but her ability to relax in the early stages might allow her to get it done. That recent bullet workout suggests she’s maintaining her excellent form and I think she might just be the “now” horse. I’d also consider Psalmody as a backup since Joe Sharp is so dangerous with his turf sprinters. I usually don’t like turnbacks like this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this mare handles it.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6,8
Trifecta: 5 with 4,6 with ALL
 

RACE 8: STAR COMMAND (#6)
Laughable is a deserving favorite off her second-place finish to the very talented half-sister to Lady Eli, Princesa Caroline. While this filly was no match for that rival, she finished nearly 7 lengths clear of the rest of the field in what was an unusually fast race for this level. If she repeats that performance, she’s going to be a handful in this spot. The only knock against her is that she’s not going to be much of a price, since her form is totally exposed at this point. Furthermore, while there may not be a potential star in the mold of a Princesa Caroline in this race, you could still argue that this is a deeper maiden special weight from top to bottom than the one she exits. There are a number of alternatives to consider. Two of those exit a different maiden race from earlier in September. Antoinette and Coalition Building finished fourth and fifth behind the Chad Brown second-time starter Indochine. Both tried to make wide runs in the stretch and just flattened out late. Antoinette is probably the one you want out of that race, since Bill Mott doesn’t usually have his turfers cranked up to win first time out. However, I’m not sure how strong that race was overall. I’m instead taking a shot with Star Command on the stretch-out. This Phipps-owned and bred filly was curiously started off at 5 1/2 furlongs in her debut at Saratoga despite the fact that she’s clearly bred to go farther than that . Shug McGaughey often gives his youngsters a start before getting serious, so she’s likely to take a step forward here. Furthermore, this filly has reportedly been working in sensational fashion ever since that debut, going in company with impressive debut winner Power Move a few times and reportedly outworking her on one occasion. She has to transfer that morning improvement to the afternoon, but I’m willing to take a shot with her given that she’s almost guaranteed to be a square price given all of the other viable options in this spot.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5,8
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 1,3,4,5,10