by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 6 - 1A - 5 - 3
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 8 - 5
Race 5: 11 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 6: 8 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 7: 3 - 5 - 10 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 9: 10 - 11 - 3 - 5
RACE 2: FLAT CALM (#5)
With the scratch of Might Be, the entry becomes the likely favorite, with Rachel's Blue Moon being the one that is likely to attract the majority of that support. Rachel’s Blue Moon clearly appreciates these one-turn route races at Belmont, but she may be compromised by having to break inside of the other speeds today, as Archumybaby and Flat Calm should also be pressing from the outside. I’m using the entry, but there are others to consider. Pink Twist probably needs to be upgraded after scratches, since she was in over her head in her last start at Saratoga, and will appreciate this slight drop in class. However, she was no match for Rachel's Blue Moon going this distance in early summer at Belmont. My top pick is Flat Calm, who stretches out in distance in her second start off the layoff for Linda Rice. I thought this filly’s return last time was very encouraging because I’ve never really thought of her as a sprinter. She showed improved early speed from her outside post and gamely held off a late charge from the in-form Starlite Mission in what was a reasonably fast race. She had previously won her maiden going a mile at Aqueduct, and the added distance is supposed to be to her liking. She’s a daughter of stamina influence Flat Out and out of a Tiznow mare who hails from the female family of the great Canadian champion Dance Smartly. Rice’s runners often improve second off the layoff, and I find it interesting that she removes blinkers for this start because she has excellent numbers doing so (8 for 17, 47 percent, $4.34 ROI over the past five years).
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,6
RACE 4: CANTEEN (#1)
A number of fillies in this field are exiting the fifth race on Sept. 30, won by the promising Godolphin filly Enliven. While the winner got the job done decisively, there’s an argument to be made that runner-up Off Topic was at least as good as her considering the trip she got. Off Topic did not break alertly from the rail and found herself at the back of a compact field in the early going. From there, she had to bull her way between horses to find running room around the far turn and then was spun wide coming into the stretch. All things considered, she actually finished up very well to be second. This big, imposing daughter of Street Sense strikes me as one who can continue improving with experience, and I view her as a deserving favorite. I’m not thrilled with Introspection or Dovey Lovey, who also exit that affair, so I instead want to look at some other alternatives. Filly Joel ran well in her debut, but she needs to prove that she can handle the stretch-out in distance. One filly who I suspect wants every bit of this 1 1/16-mile trip is second-time starter Canteen, and she is my top pick. I realize that this Chad Brown trainee comes out of a pretty slow heat, but she actually ran very well within the context of that race. Canteen broke very awkwardly and trailed the field by several lengths early. Sept. 16 was a day that featured one of the strongest rail biases of the entire meet on the main track, so this filly actually did well to make a wide closing move through the lane. This expensive yearling buy is a rangy filly with a big stride, and she is certainly bred to handle the added ground here. If she breaks cleanly, I think we’ll see a big step forward.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6,8
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 4,5,7,8
RACE 5: QUICK CHARGE (#11)
I’m not really against Southern Brigade, who certainly handled the stretch-out in distance last time and will be pretty formidable if he repeats that effort. This ridgling ran like a horse that needed more ground when he was closing late in his debut back in August. Unsurprisingly, he showed better tactical speed in his second start and finished up respectably to get into a dead heat with Graded On a Curve. I definitely prefer this horse to Scotty Brown, who was allowed to set a moderate pace in that same race last time and just could not see it out. In some ways, I suppose they’re the two most trustworthy options in this field because they’ve done this before, but I think there are some other interesting players to consider at better prices. One of those is first time starter Klickitat, who is a half-brother to New York-bred stakes winner Evaluator. While Evaluator excelled on dirt later in his career, he was an impressive debut winner on turf as a 2-year-old, so this one has a right to do well in this spot. I’m using him, but I’m most interested in a horse that is stretching out in distance for the first time. Quick Charge had reportedly trained well into his debut at Saratoga, and he actually ran fairly well to be a close fifth. I don’t think that was the toughest New York-bred maiden race that was run at the meet, but he at least showed some hints of ability. They tried dirt next time out and he flashed newfound early speed before fading in the final furlong. I’m intrigued by this stretch-out in distance, since he really is bred to excel going route distances. He’s by stamina influence Take Charge Indy, and his dam was a confirmed router on dirt and turf. Aside from Scotty Brown, there really isn’t much obvious speed in this race, so Quick Charge should easily make the front under Hector Diaz. The Widener course has not been hurting runners with forward position, and I would not be surprised to see this colt take them a long way at a big price.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,4,8,10
RACE 9: CANARSIE KID (#10)
If Outrageous Bet repeats his last effort, he probably will win. However, I think there were a few factors that contributed to that effort, which is clearly an outlier in his overall body of work. Outrageous Bet has always appreciated softer turf courses, so he got his preferred going last time, but it’s likely to be firm on Thursday. While his race came up fast, much of that was due to the quick early pace. Speedy favorite McErin had been softened up, and Outrageous Bet got a perfect ride and trip as he ran him down. I’m still not totally convinced that he’s far superior to horses like Sparky and Fast Getaway, who finished just behind him back on Aug. 19 at Saratoga. Of those two, Sparky is particularly interesting since he also handles give in the ground and possesses the tactical speed to get the jump on Outrageous Bet. I’m using him, but my top pick is Canarsie Kid, who is somewhat of a new face at this level. This horse rarely competes against New York-breds anymore, but he has remained eligible for this N1X allowance condition. He’s struggled against cheaper foes in the past, but his recent efforts suggest that he may be in the best form of his career at age 7. I was highly encouraged by his race two back behind the talented Sheikh of Sheikhs, and he seemed to improve on that last time over a yielding course at Belmont. This has always been his favorite venue, and six furlongs is the ideal distance for him.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,5,7,9,11
Trifecta: 10 with 3,11 with 3,5,7,9,11