PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 7 - 10 - 5
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   9 - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 4:   1 - 9 - 11 - 10
Race 5:   8 - 2 - 1 - 9
Race 6:   2 - 1 - 4 - 10
Race 7:   1/1A - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 8:   6 - 9 - 3 - 4
Race 9:   4 - 7 - 10 - 13

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: INDY UNION (#5)
Pink Sands is likely to go off as a short-priced favorite after running an improved race at this distance last time. She showed good early speed and finished well while proving no match for the winner. She's certainly one of the top players in this race, but there are other fillies in this group who appear to possess some talent. One of those may be first-time starter South of the Shore, who makes her debut for Chad Brown. She actually has more of a turf pedigree on the dam's side, so perhaps it's a good sign that she's trained forwardly enough on dirt to get a shot racing on this surface. I'll use both of these, but my top pick is Indy Union. I liked both of this filly's first couple of starts on dirt and thought she finished up like a horse who really wants more ground. She made a belated but sustained run from well off the pace in her debut and then bettered that effort in her second start, running past Pink Sands in the final eighth of a mile. A turf experiment last time didn't work out, but now she gets back on the right surface.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4

RACE 3: PALINODIE (#9)
Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand here with both Dovecote and Silver Shaker. Of the pair, I prefer the recent maiden winner Silver Shaker, who was impressive when winning at this distance last time. That race did not set up well for a closer, as the leaders meandered through slow early fractions (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs). Despite that poor setup, she came flying through the lane with a devastating run to win by open lengths. If she repeats that performance, none of these may beat her. However, I still want to take a shot with a runner who figures to offer better value. Palinodie was quite dull when returning from the layoff this summer at Saratoga. That race was dominated by the front-runner over a turf course that was favoring speed and the rail, but Palinodie still should have produced more of a stretch kick. I'm hoping that she just needed that race to get back into form because her U.S. debut last fall in the Long Island Handicap was actually a good effort. She was strongly rated far off an extremely slow pace, and she closed well to get as close as she did at the wire. Now, she's stretching out to a more appropriate distance, and the Belmont turf course should be more to her liking.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,5,6,8
Trifecta: 5,9 with 5,9 with 3,6,8

RACE 6: DJULPAN (#2)
There is very little speed signed on, and the Pace Projector is indeed predicting a situation that favors runners who will be on or near the early lead. Therefore, trips could play a big role in the outcome. The Pace Projector is predicting that Cordero may be in front early as he makes his first start off the claim by Brad Cox. He was in decent form prior to the barn change, and he figures to be awfully dangerous here given the circumstances. I'll use him, but I think he could get some company up front from Djulpan. For whatever reason, this colt's connections rated him in his recent starts. He didn't handle it two back and then was inexplicably dragged back to nearly last in the early stages of his most recent start. He's run his best races when he's up on the pace, and I think Jose Ortiz will revert to those tactics as he gets back aboard here. I know that some others have run faster speed figures, but I don't wholly trust class droppers like War Stroll and Camp Courage.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6,10,11,12

RACE 8: CLASSIC COVEY (#6) / CAPITAINE (#9)
I'm not saying anything particularly clever by pointing out that Classic Covey is clearly the horse to beat. His maiden score was visually impressive, as he rallied powerfully from well behind in a situation where the pace didn't exactly fall apart. It's sometimes difficult for horses coming off maiden wins to step up against winners, but Bill Mott has fantastic numbers in these situations. Over the past five years, he is 23 for 91 (25 percent, $2.94 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in turf routes. I believe he is the most likely winner, and I want to use him with Capitaine, who figures to offer much better value. This horse didn't seem to know what he was doing in his turf debut back in July at Saratoga, but he improved significantly in his second start over the surface later in the meet. That day, he was the only horse who was contesting the early pace to still be around at the end in a race that was dominated by late runners. It seems like he's heading in the right direction, and he figures to work out a nice stalking trip in this spot. I’ll primarily use him in exactas with the favorite.

Win: 6,9
Exacta Box: 6,9
Trifecta: 6 with 9 with 2,3,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 2,3,4,5 with 9