PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   14 - 15 - 4 - 13
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 6 - 8
Race 4:   7 - 15 - 12 - 2
Race 5:   4 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 6:   15 - 14 - 11 - 6
Race 7:   2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 5 - 12 - 13
Race 9:   15 - 14 - 16 - 13

PLAYS

RACE 1: MICROSCOPE (#4)
After the scratch of Fried Rice King this becomes a much softer spot. Allured could inherit the favorite's role, but I'm pretty skeptical of this runner. He did show improvement last time second off the layoff for Orlando Noda, and he's previously shown the ability to handle a wet track. However, he still hasn never recaptured his best form for this barn and now he's dropping in for the lowest claiming tag of his career. I prefer another class dropper. Microscope has yet to run as fast as some others, but he has kept strong company in his recent races. This gelding had little chance against the likes of Danny California, Harris Bay, or Bears Mafia at the New York-bred allowance level and now he’s dropping down to an appropriate spot. He’s also stretching out in distance, which I like. Although his past performances may not explicitly suggest that he’s better going longer, I think he’s run subtly well in all of his route starts. That was especially true in a couple of one-mile events over the winter at Aqueduct. Furthermore, there is rain in the forecast on Thursday and he earned both of his career victories over sloppy, sealed tracks.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 2,5 with 2,3,5

RACE 4: MCERIN (#7)
With this race getting taken off the turf, the Main Track Only entrants will probably attract plenty of support, but I’m most intrigued by turf entrant McErin. This horse has been a bit of a disappointment since returning to turf this summer for trainer Todd Pletcher, but now he makes his first start off the claim for Tom Morley. He’s at least run competitive speed figures in his last two turf starts, so it’s not as if his form has totally fallen apart. Furthermore, he ran well in a couple of his dirt route starts earlier this year, specifically on Feb. 2 and on July 11, when he was contesting a fast pace. Those races were probably too far for him, and he should appreciate the cutback in distance on dirt. I prefer him to Home Run Maker, who isn’t totally trustworthy based on his inconsistent recent form, and Vineyard Sound, who beat a much weaker field last time. I would rather use horses like Skyler’s Scramjet and Durkin’s Call underneath at bigger prices.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,12,15
Trifecta: 7 with 2,12,15 with 2,12,14,15

RACE 7: SEASIDE RETREAT (#2)
The two fillies likely to attract the most support exit the same race won by impressive Juddmonte debut winner Starfront. While neither Undine or Tactical Move was able to get close to the winner that day, they both put in encouraging efforts have have room to improve in this spot. Tactical Move figures to go favored as she makes her second career start after taking a bit of money in that unveiling. She broke a step slowly and was keen at the back of the pack before staying on decently for fourth in the stretch. All things considered it was a solid effort and Bill Mott has decent statistics with second time starters. Undine also has a right to step forward as she was returning from a nearly yearlong layoff when she finished third behind Starfront last time. She was forced to race wide around the turn and just flattened out in the stretch. She’s clearly improved since her two-year-old season and makes plenty of sense as an alternative. I’ll use both of these, but I’m most interested in a filly who is returning from a layoff in this race. Seaside Retreat raced just once as a two-year-old, finishing a distant second behind eventual Grade 2 Demoiselle winner Lake Avenue. While she didn’t break any stopwatches rallying through the stretch, I got the impression that she was just being given a start. She didn’t take much money, and Joel Rosario handled her conservatively during the race. She’s certainly bred to do better as a daughter of Grade 2 winner Boca Grande. Now she’s returning as a mature 3-year-old for Shug McGaughey, who has strong numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 5 for 17 (29%, $3.39 ROI) with maidens coming off 180+ day layoffs at NYRA. Furthermore, that recent 5-furlong bullet workout at Fair Hill suggests that she’s doing well coming into this race.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,6