by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 3
Race 2: 5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 2 - 1/1A
Race 4: 5 - 9 - 1 - 10
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 6: 3 - 8 - 6 - 1
Race 7: 8 - 4 - 10 - 3
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 9: 2 - 10 - 6 - 11
RACE 1: CLAIRVOYANT LADY (#4)
Archumybaby is likely to be scratched given that she won Sunday and was claimed out of that spot after being entered here by her prior connections. Her absence makes Miss Nancy the prohibitive favorite off the claim by Repole Stable and Chris Englehart. This daughter of Arch is undoubtedly the class of the field, having raced against much tougher company in almost all of her recent starts. While she’s been campaigned primarily on turf and synthetic surfaces during that time, her prior dirt efforts suggest that she can win on dirt at this level. The only real problem with taking this mare at a short price is her running style. She just doesn’t have any real early speed, and that could severely compromise her chances as she cuts back to 6 1/2 furlongs. Without Archumybaby in the field, Clairvoyant Lady and Daria’s Angel figure to contest the early lead. Of those two, I strongly prefer Clairvoyant Lady. Some may argue that she has been a disappointment since getting claimed away from Jeremiah Englehart this summer, and that’s fair. However, her current connections got far too ambitious over the summer, placing her in some tough optional-claiming affairs. She was never going to beat horses like Play Unified and Queen Laila two back, and then last time, she was unable to race competitively against a deceptively strong field at Monmouth. They tried to use her speed that day, but she was unable to make the front and retreated from there. This filly has run a number of prior races that suggest she can win at this level, and this time, Jose Lezcano figures to put her on the lead and hope she can take them all the way.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,3
RACE 2: HILLS POND (#5)
This is a particularly tricky race because many of the top contenders enter from different class levels. Killeen and Year of the Kitten figure to vie for favoritism, but I’m not a great fan of either. Killeen did face tougher company at Saratoga last time, but he was also totally uncompetitive in that Aug. 8 race and ran a speed figure that was significantly worse than his Kentucky form. I think he was flattered by inferior competition in his prior starts and was exposed in that Spa race. Year of the Kitten won at this level at Saratoga, but he got plenty of pace to close into that day, and he may not be so fortunate this time. Coltandmississippi is a formidable presence as he returns to turf for Gary Contessa. I prefer him to the two aforementioned runners, and even The Queens Jules is somewhat dangerous as the likely controlling speed. I would use both of these horses prominently, but my top pick is Hills Pond. This horse rarely gets any respect at the windows, mostly because trainer Ned Allard has run him in some pretty tough spots. Despite having been soundly defeated in his recent races, he’s nevertheless run some of the fastest speed figures in this field. His effort behind Factor This three back is good enough to win this, and he actually ran deceptively well last time in a tougher optional-claiming race against older horses. I like the rider switch to Irad Ortiz, and I think this horse will offer plenty of value in a confusing race.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,7
Trifecta: 5 with 3,4 with 1,3,4,6,7
RACE 4: PIER FORTY (#5)
Beach Front is probably going to go off as the favorite here off his encouraging debut sprinting at Saratoga. While I have no major knocks against his performance that day, I’m somewhat dubious of his ability to stretch out to a mile. His dam’s family is composed of mostly sprint influences, and runners such as this are often bad bets at short prices. I find Quiet Out East to be somewhat more reliable given his solid effort going two turns at Saratoga in his debut. He was no match for the winner that day, but he finished relatively close to Scotty Brown and Graded on a Curve, who both came back to run respectably last week. Quiet Out East was actually supposed to participate in that race, but ended up getting scratched at the gate. I’m using both of these runners in some capacity, but the horse that interests me most is Pier Forty. This son of City Zip took plenty of action in both of his two career starts and has generally been a disappointment. However, now he gets a total makeover for his third start. He returns as a new gelding, adds Lasix for the first time, and returns to turf. He obviously showed some ability at the OBS sale earlier this year to sell for $250,000 and I don’t want to hold his only turf race against him. Pier Forty wanted no part of the elongated distance that day and just didn’t seem to have his mind on running at any point. He moves like a turf horse, so his second start on dirt is actually pretty encouraging. I’m giving him a chance to finally figure things out.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,9,10
RACE 5: WILL DANCER (#1)
This is the race that I’m most anticipating on the Thursday card, both as a racing fan and a horseplayer. There may be some real talent among the 2-year-olds in this group, and many have impeccable pedigrees to handle the route distance. Todd Pletcher has entered two runners, and King for a Day figures to attract the most support. This Uncle Mo colt exits one of the fastest 2-year-old maiden races of the Saratoga meet. While he was no match for the impressive winner Complexity, he actually ran fairly well within the context of the race. Those vying for the lead were strung out across the track heading into the far turn, and King for a Day was widest of all around that bend. No one was able to make a significant closing move, but this colt actually stayed on well to get up for third. He’s bred to improve with added distance, and I think he’ll give a better account of himself here. Among his intriguing, well-bred challengers is Tacitus, a first-time starter out of champion Close Hatches. However, Bill Mott rarely wins with male youngsters in their debuts. The horse I want to bet is Will Dancer, who comes out of a seven-furlong maiden race on Sept. 1. While he was well beaten that day, I thought he actually showed some ability despite his rider going to great lengths to give him an education. Will Dancer broke sharply, but Irad Ortiz took him back off the pace in a tightly bunched group heading down the backstretch. Having given up that forward position, he was subsequently shuffled back to last heading around the far turn. With nowhere to advance, Ortiz guided him to the rail, forcing him to take some dirt in his face. He squeezed through a narrow opening inside at the top of the stretch and then finished up very willingly while never threatening the top trio. He figures to improve with that experience under his belt, and he’s certainly bred to handle added ground.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with 2,3,4,5,6,7
RACE 6: OVERNIGHT SUCCESS (#3)
This is very tricky race, as you can make a valid case for many of the participants. Prognostication is probably going to go off as the favorite for Chad Brown as he seeks his fourth win in a row. He’s clearly in good form right now, but this is far and away the toughest field that he’s ever faced and I’m somewhat skeptical of his overall class. Class is not a concern for Clyde’s Image, who returns from a 20-month layoff in this spot. When last seen, this horse was racing competitively against the likes of Made You Look, who has since gone on to be competitive in graded stakes races. Horses like this are always difficult to trust, but Clyde’s Image has seemingly gotten fit off a limited set of workouts and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well. Final Frontier is another horse to consider, but his turf ability is now exposed after he was disqualified out of a win at 25-1 last time. I’m using him, but I think you missed the opportunity. The horse that I want to bet is Overnight Success. While he had to drop down to the maiden claiming ranks to break his maiden last time, that was actually a pretty tough field for the level. Runner-up Midnight Tea Time has run well enough to win maiden special weight races on a number of occasions and returned to validate the speed figure. The major question for Overnight Success heading into that start was the distance, since he had excelled going shorter early in his career. However, his powerful finish last time suggested that he might actually be best going this far. I think he also responded well to the change in tactics. Irad Ortiz had trouble figuring this horse out in prior starts, riding him once as a deep closer and then as a front-runner. He should sit a stalking trip here and I think he’s talented enough to compete with this group.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,6,8