PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 3 - 5 - 1A
Race 2:   6 - 11 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 5:   7 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 5 - 4 - 9
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   4 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 9:   4 - 1 - 5 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: FROST PROOF (#6)
Pence was installed as the morning-line favorite as he turns back in distance after losing at this level going two turns at Saratoga. He clearly just didn't want to go that far, but I also have to question this runner's overall talent based on his debut effort. That six-furlong race featured a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) that totally fell apart, and he still couldn't make much of a late impact. He has a right to improve, but I don't expect him to offer any value. Instead, I prefer Frost Proof, who comes back at the same level at which he finished a decent third at Saratoga last time. That day, he overcame a wide trip and put in a solid late run through the lane against what was probably a tougher field. Prior to that, he had run much better than it seems going long on the turf at Belmont, making a premature move to challenge for the lead on the backstretch before fading late. This horse actually has a bit of talent, and he figures to be a square price once again.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,11

RACE 5: BELLE OF THE SPA (#7)
A few runners in this field are coming out of the eighth race on Sept. 4. That day, Lady Joan just outfinished Style Drift for second after closing from midpack. However, Style Drift had the tougher trip as she encountered traffic in the lane, and I slightly prefer her this time. That said, the race was run over a turf course that had taken a lot of rain, and both of them clearly handled the softer going. One horse who did not appear to relish the course that day was Belle of the Spa. She made an early move to the front coming to the top of the stretch and then flattened out in the late stages. This filly's prior races at Belmont had been quite good. On a couple of occasions, she survived very fast paces (indicated by red color-coding) and still was able to finish with interest. A return to that form would make her the horse to beat in this spot, and she's likely to get her preferred firm course this time.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,6

RACE 7: DELTA OUTLAW (#4)
Blaze'n Prospector is probably the horse to beat as he drops in class off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez. However, I don't completely trust this runner to improve on his prior form, given that he has been in capable hands prior to this claim. He ran fine for top claiming trainer Robertino Diodoro last time and was conditioned by Al Stall prior to that. A repeat of his last performance gives him a chance here, but I think he's going to be an underlay. The other logical contender is Deep Sea. He takes a similar drop in class, but Pat Reynolds gets just a 46 Trainer Rating first off the claim, and this runner may be pace-compromised. Instead, I'm taking a shot with the speed. Delta Outlaw is one of the few moving up in class. He busted out of the gate last time and showed renewed early speed before holding sway in the late stages against a weaker bunch. While this is not a positive barn switch, this horse has plenty of back class and at least showed that he can still run competitive races last time. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, and he is fast enough to clear off in the early stages.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6

RACE 8: BLIND AMBITION (#4)
You have to respect Undrafted, who takes a needed class drop into this allowance race after facing some of the best turf sprinters in the country through the spring and summer. On his best day, he would easily beat a field like this, but it's fair to say that he's probably lost a step in recent seasons. He's still the horse to beat, but I think he's facing an up-and-coming 3-year-old who could give him a real challenge. Blind Ambition did well to win the Quick Call two back at Saratoga despite the 5 1/2-furlong distance being a bit short for him. He was bet down to even-money when stretched out to a mile last time, and things just didn't work out. He got involved in a taxing, contested pace battle in a race that ultimately fell apart in the late stages. I like him getting back to a one-turn race, and he should be able to relax into a stalking trip this time behind speeds like Angry Moon and Chief Lion.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 3,5 with ALL