by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 1/1A - 3 - 4
Race 2:   11 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   6 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 6:   1 - 5 - 6 - 8
Race 7:   12 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   9 - 2 - 11 - 3
Race 9:   9 - 4 - 8 - 7
Race 10:   12 - 8 - 1 - 9

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: NERO’S FIDDLE (#11)
This race becomes a little less appealing after the scratch of High Tone, who I thought was a good horse to play against. Perhaps Justintimeforwine deserves another chance after getting pushed through unreasonably fast fractions in his last start. He certainly has the ability to win a race like this and has actually run faster than High Tone in the past. However, he can be fairly fainthearted and isn’t the easiest horse to take at another short price. I think the winner will be Nero’s Fiddle. This horse put in an excellent effort when last seen on Sept. 18. While he wasn’t right on top of that fast pace set by Justintimeforwine, he made the first move after that horse coming to the top of the stretch. He then refused to yield in the lane as the closers swallowed up most of those who were attending the pace. It seems like this gelding is always an overlay due to the fact that he goes out for low-profile connections, but he’s been subtly improving with every start and now seems ready to collect his diploma.

Win: 11
Exacta: 11 with 4,5,7
 

RACE 5: OUR LAST BUCK (#6)
I suppose I Love Jaxson has to be considered the horse to beat as he drops back down in class to face New York-breds for the first time in nearly a year. He just hasn’t looked like quite the same horse since returning from a layoff over the summer, though it’s fair to say that he was in against significantly tougher company every time. He’ll be a serious factor here if the drop in class wakes him up, but I’m a little skeptical. I prefer his main rival Our Last Buck. This 6-year-old turned into a different horse for Michelle Nevin once they finally stretched him out in distance. His first two starts after returning from a layoff this summer were excellent, both good enough to defeat this field. While he lost by 13 lengths at Saratoga last time, I think that performance needs to be evaluated within the context of the pace. They were flying up front as today’s rival Freaky Styley unexpectedly pushed Our Last Buck through unreasonably fast early fractions. They both paid the price, but it’s worth nothing that Freaky Styley was eased and Our Last Buck was able to hang on for second, albeit far behind the winner. Our Last Buck is better than that, and he figures to appreciate the turnback to a one-turn route here. After the scratch of Freaky Styley, Our Last Buck should work out a great trip either stalking Hit It Once More or setting the pace, and that should help him rebound.

Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 2,3,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 3,5 with 2,3,4,5
 

RACE 6: PURE CARMINE (#1)
Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this 11-furlong maiden event as he sends out the two likely favorites, Compliant and Amano. While they each possess the speed figures to win at this level, neither one has shown much competitive spirit in their races, and I’m somewhat reluctant to take either of them at short prices. I suppose I slightly prefer Compliant, since he ran a fast speed figure last time when beaten by a legitimately talented horse in Doswell. He was never a threat to that foe, but it was his first start off a lengthy layoff and he has a right to improve. Notably, his best prior effort came going 1 1/4 miles over this course last year, so it’s possible that more distance will be to his benefit. Amano is more difficult for me to endorse. He was compromised by a slow pace two back, but he was still supposed to win that day when facing a weaker field than he meets here. The distance will aid him as well, but he doesn’t have the fast figures of his stablemate and just seems like a bit of a one-paced plodder. I want to go in a different direction as there are viable alternatives to these favorites. The one who intrigues me most is the California shipper Pure Carmine. He’s yet to run fast enough to win a race like this, but he’s shown hints of potential in his two starts to date. He ran deceptively well in his career debut as he lost touch with the field early but made up good ground in the second half of the race before encountering traffic in the stretch. He just looked like he had no clue what he was doing during the race, but he figured things out late and galloped out strongly. He was much more professional in his second start, as he made a sustained wide run to get up for third. He strikes me as one that will appreciate marathon distances given his grinding style. He has a layoff to contend with, but Neil Drysdale is a remarkable 7 for 14 (50 percent, $4.16 ROI) with turf starters at NYRA over the past 5 years.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,8
 

RACE 8: TIERGAN (#9)
I’m hardly against the likely favorite Quickflash, who can surely win this race if he merely holds his form. He would be almost impossible for this field to handle if able to run back to his effort two back at Belmont when he finished a close third at this level. That day he got squeezed back at the start and was forced to make a mid-race move to challenge at the quarter pole before tiring over a track that may have been favoring rail runners. My one issue with him is his last race, as he didn’t have much of an answer in the stretch when soundly defeated by Golani Brigade and Blackjack Davey. Perhaps those are just superior horses, but the former lost as the favorite next time out and the runner-up significantly regressed in his subsequent start. The turnback to 6 furlongs should help Quickflash, but I want to go in a different direction in search of better value. My top pick is Tiergan as he returns from a layoff. This horse has yet to earn a speed figure that matches the favorite’s top numbers, but he’s shown potential at different points throughout his career. He ran some nice races going a mile as a 3-year-old, but I suspect that slightly shorter distances are better for him, especially when he lands in spots where he gets more pace to close into. That should be the case here with speeds like Midnight Whiskey, Riken, and Bears Mafia signed on. Tiergan has been working well for his return and I think he can take a step forward now as a full matured 4-year-old. The other horse to consider is the aforementioned Bears Mafia, who has been running superior speed figures at Finger Lakes. However, I want to see him transfer that form to NYRA before I support him in a spot like this.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,8,11
Trifecta: 2,9 with 2,9 with 1,3,8,11
 

RACE 9: FESTINA PLENTE (#9)
This race gave me serious trouble, as I’m reluctant to trust any of the shorter prices. Notorious R B G may be the horse to beat as she tries to win this condition after just barely losing at this level at Saratoga. However, she’s facing a tougher field this time and she doesn’t have any sort of speed figure edge over her rivals. I’m certainly using her, but I didn’t think this was a spot in which you wanted to take a favorite. I also don’t want the horses exiting that September 6 race won by So Gracious, which featured a blanket finish as all of the runners came together like an accordion at the end. Cost Benefit is an intriguing new face on the turnback, but Chad Brown doesn’t have the best statistics with horses moving all the way back to 6 furlongs. This filly is bred to sprint and has plenty of tactical speed, but I worry that she could be overbet. I want to go in a totally different direction, so I landed on a wild card. Festina Plente makes her first start in this country after being privately purchased and transferred to trainer Mike Stidham. While Stidham doesn’t get many of these foreign shippers, he has done well with the few he’s received, going 4 for 14 (29%, $2.30 ROI) over the past 5 years when those runners make their U.S. debuts. This filly picked up minor awards last year in Ireland more often than she won, but she nevertheless kept solid company in her races, especially late in her 3-year-old season. She finished a good third against stakes company when last seen, losing to Group 3 winner Surrounding. Her Timeform Ratings stack up well against this field, her workout pattern looks as steady as can be, and she figures to fly under the radar.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 4,7,8