by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 5:   7 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   2 - 7 - 3 - 8
Race 7:   2 - 1A - 3 - 5
Race 8:   2 - 1/1A - 6 - 5
Race 9:   4 - 11 - 10 - 2

PLAYS

 
RACE 4: LILAC GIRL (#4)
Chad Brown has a pair of contenders in this maiden turf sprint. Crowding Out is the more lightly raced of the two and owns proven sprint form, having finished third at this distance in her career debut back in May. While she only lost by three-quarters of a length, she never looked like a serious threat to win that race, just staying on at one pace. She handled dirt well enough last time and has the tactical speed to be dangerous. I just think her stablemate Split Then Double is a better horse. Perhaps she improved with the added ground this season, as her only prior sprint attempt earned a slower speed figure. However, I’m of the opinion that she’s simply a more mature horse now. She was beaten by good rivals Star Command and Rastafara in her last two starts, both of whom came right back to beat winners. Furthermore, Chad Brown is a strong 8 for 23 (35%, $2.48 ROI) with maidens going from routes to sprints on turf over 5 years. I think she’s the horse to beat, but I am interested in a new face. Lilac Girl makes her career debut for Jonathan Thomas, who can be quite dangerous with first time starters. He’s 5 for 22 (23%, $2.03 ROI) debuting in turf sprints over the past 5 years. She’s out of a turf stakes placed dam who has already produced a turf winner. I’m also encouraged that the turf-winning sibling was by negative turf influence Union Rags, whereas this filly is by good turf sprint sire Quality Road. She appeared to have a very well balanced stride in the one dirt workout I saw, and It seems she achieved a respectable time in her Aug. 27 turf drill. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she has some ability.

Win: 4
Exacta Box: 4,8
 

RACE 6: LADY PETROL (#2)
I’m highly skeptical of the favorites in this optional claimer. Misspell figures to attract support for Chad Brown as she drops out of a Grade 3 event at Woodbine. While she was compromised by a moderate pace in that spot, she really offered no punch through the lane after sitting a decent trip. I thought she was supposed to win two back when she just failed to hold off the late charge of Third Draft. She was flattered when that one returned to run well in the Riskaverse, but she always takes money and I think her form is pretty exposed at this point. Messidor is a wild card as she drops out of the Saratoga Oaks and transfers into the Christophe Clement barn. The distance may have been too far for her last time, but it’s not as if she did any meaningful running in that spot. Her prior form is Europe is decent though unspectacular and it’s unclear to me where she truly fits from a class standpoint. I’m going in a different direction for my top pick with Chad Brown’s other runner Lady Petrol. This filly made a few starts as a two-year-old for Mark Casse, earning slow speed figures before getting put on the shelf. She returned in June at Belmont, and ran better than it seems in her first start for the new barn. The pace of that race was very slow, and she did well to make up some ground through the lane. That was a deceptively strong field for the level as the second, third, and fourth place finishers all returned to win with improved efforts. Now she’s stretching out, and Chad Brown is 25 for 77 (32%, $2.25 ROI) with non-maidens going from sprints to routes on turf over 5 years.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,7,8
Trifecta: 2 with 3,7 with 3,4,7,8
 

RACE 7: ALCOOLS (#2)
We’ll see if both halves of this Linda Rice entry actually participate in this race, as it would hardly be surprising if she chose to scratch one of them. Happy Farm is the stronger representative from this barn, as he drops slightly in class after contesting a pair of $50k claiming events earlier in the summer. His best form is obviously superior to this field, but I have some questions. I’m a little troubled that he appeared to lose his once potent early speed in his last two starts, and Irad Ortiz doesn’t seem particularly inclined to ride him aggressively. Furthermore, I question where he’s been since getting claimed 77 days ago, as he was training in Saratoga and failed to make a start up there. Clench comes off a big speed figure, but his recent form has been spotty and he got a great setup last time. I want to look at some alternatives. Fox Red is one to consider as he makes his first start off the claim for Saffie Joseph. This barn had a rough Saratoga meet, but still possesses solid stats off the claim on dirt. This horse didn’t get a particularly aggressive ride last time but his form had been trending in the right direction as he steadily moved up in class. My top pick at a bigger price is Alcools. This gelding looks a little cheap at first glance, but there are some reasons to be optimistic about his chances. He earned a competitive 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his sloppy victory two back over next-out winner Strolling, who turned the tables on him at Saratoga. Yet Alcools was going out for a low-percentage barn last time and clearly didn’t perform at his best. Now he’s been claimed back by the same owners who lost him two back and they immediately raise him in class. Chris Englehart doesn’t have strong statistics off the claim, but I like the confidence being displayed by connections who know this horse.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 3,5,6
 

RACE 8: TEMPLE (#2)
The Chad Brown / Klaravich Stables entry figures to be tough to handle in this spot. Value Engineering is the more trustworthy half, as he consistently earns speed figures that make him good enough to win at this level. However, he’s been short prices many times before and tends to settle for minor awards. That said, he did run well to be third within the context of his last race, as the pace was on the moderate side and the top two finishers dominated up front. I’m actually more intrigued by his entrymate Perjury Trap, who somehow was dismissed at 7-1 when he won at Ellis Park last time. This 4-year-old has shown hints of ability in the past but has had trouble putting it all together. I loved the way he finished last time and think he may be ready to take the next step forward. The only problem is that he’s going to be a very short price given that he’s coupled in the wagering. The only alternative to this entry that interests me is Temple. I acknowledge that he’s not exactly a winning type and claiming off Mike Maker isn’t an easy thing to do. However, I can make an excuse for his first start off the claim for Tom Morley last time. That Lure field was particularly tough and he got the wrong trip, racing wide behind a slow pace around both turns. He figures to appreciate the added distance and he’s drawn much better on the rail this time. Furthermore, his recent form isn’t as bad as it seems as he got caught in traffic two back and might have finished much closer with a clear run. There’s no speed signed on beyond the inferior Summer to Remember, so John Velazquez should have him placed in a stalking position.

Win: 2
Exacta Box: 1,2