by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 9 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   1 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 5:   2B - 1/1A - 9 - 8
Race 6:   6 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 7:   10 - 3 - 5 - 9
Race 8:   6 - 2 - 9 - 5

PLAYS

 
RACE 4: PALLAS ATHENE (#4)
Stiva figures to be the favorite in this race as she makes her second start. That was actually a pretty solid field that she faced at Colonial Downs, as a number of fillies that finished ahead of her would also be major players in a race like this. Graham Motion tends to give horses a race first time out, so it’s certainly conceivable that she would improve with that experience under her belt. You also get the sense that the stretch-out in distance will help her, since she appears to be a pretty rangy filly without much acceleration to her. The only drawback is the potential price, since this is the kind of horse that the public tends to overbet. I’m using her prominently, but there are others in here with solid credentials. Lady Rosalie closed nicely against a solid field on the Travers undercard last time, though the stretch-out in distance is a bit of a question mark for her. She doesn’t have the size of some of her rivals, so it remains to be seen if she possesses the power to see out this trip. I’m using both of these fillies, but my top pick is Pallas Athene. This John Terranova trainee didn’t have much of a chance to make an impact in her debut, which was dominated by stakes filly Varenka. She got to go this distance when last seen in early July, but she was very far back in the early going that day in a race that was dominated on the front end. She was actually running on well at the end of that race, and I think she could be more effective at this level with a more aggressive ride. Therefore, I like that the connections are adding blinkers, which should allow her to sit closer to what figures to be a very moderate pace. I get the sense that she has more ability than she has yet shown on the racetrack.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,6
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 2,5,6
 

RACE 6: CARTHON (#6)
Linda Rice will only start Control Group after scratching I Love Jaxson, and this older half of the entry is more of an enigma. Rice is not showing a ton of confidence as she immediately drops him in for a $40,000 tag after claiming him for $62,500 at Saratoga. Obviously, he wasn’t expected to run quite as poorly as he did that day, and it’s possible that he’s just going off form. I’ve also always felt that he’s a bit better around two turns, hence his overall lack of success at Belmont Park. I want to take a shot against him with Carthon. I just think this gelding makes a ton of sense as he returns from the layoff. He ran one of the best races of his career last December when he was fresh and coming off a similar break. He then continued to throw down solid TimeformUS Speed Figures throughout the winter and spring at Aqueduct. I believe this 1 1/16 miles distance is perfect for him, and he’s drawn well outside of his main pace rival. As long as he’s ready to go off the layoff, I think he’s going to be a handful in this spot. The others are harder to trust. Uncle Sigh obviously has it in him to win races at this level, but his poor last effort is a concern. I could also throw in the speedy Three to Thirteen and Durkin’s Call, who would be formidable if able to regain the form he displayed over the winter.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2,5 with ALL
 

RACE 7: VALUE ENGINEERING (#10)
I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite Value Engineering, who may finally be getting on track. It’s been a struggle to get this horse on a steady pattern, as he needed significant time between his first three starts. Therefore, it’s probably a good sign that he’s running back just 5 weeks after his impressive Saratoga maiden win. This colt was beaten by some very good horses earlier in the year, as Clint Maroon went on to win a stakes and The Last Zip is now Grade 1-placed. He showed plenty of determination when slicing his way through the pack to win after encountering traffic in that most recent start. He’s always been bred to go longer, so the 1 1/4 miles of this race should be right up his alley. He doesn't need to improve much to take down this group and he has the tactical speed to work out a decent trip from mid-pack. I’m not thrilled with some of the other horses that are likely to take money in this spot. I’m interested in Bluegrass Parkway as my primary alternative as he returns from a layoff for Rodolphe Brisset. He may need a race, but he showed promise earlier in the year and made a premature move when last seen at Churchill.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,5,9
Trifecta: 10 with 3,5 with 3,5,6,7,9
 

RACE 8: POSITIVE POWER (#6)
It’s hard to know where to begin in this confusing race with no clear horse to beat. I suppose Morality Clause and Ella Brilla will vie for favoritism. The former showed promise when unveiled in a few softer turf sprints earlier this summer, but found herself struggling against tougher foes in an open maiden special weight at Saratoga last time. She had to steady in the late stages, but was never really going anywhere after a ground-saving trip. I’m not sure the stretch-out in distance helps her cause. Ella Brilla is bred to relish today’s conditions as a full sister to a solid turf router. She’s showing some solid workouts and it’s a good sign that Jose Ortiz jumps aboard, but Brian Lynch does not have strong statistics with firsters in turf routes. Jazzy Lady makes plenty of sense from a pedigree standpoint, since Cairo Prince has developed into a solid turf influence and the dam earned her only victory on grass. However, Ray Handal is 0 for 37 with first-time starters over the past 5 years. At prices, I’d also consider horses like Shyza, who has some turf pedigree, and La Negrita, who was wide when facing a tougher field in her debut. However, my top pick is Positive Power. Misremembered wins with 7% of his first time turfers and 10% of his turf starters overall. The dam never tried turf but did win her only start on synthetic, and she’s actually a half-sister to Bebop, the turf-winning dam of the aforementioned Jazzy Lady. This filly has finished up like a horse that wouldn’t mind added ground, and she has a way of going that makes me think turf may be her preferred surface.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Box: 2,5,6,9
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 7,8