by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 3 - 6 - 9
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 7: 3 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 4 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 9: 7 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 10: 7 - 6 - 1 - 5
RACE 3: IT’S A SHAW THING (#2)
Sweet Carolina has to be considered the one to beat as she drops out of maiden special weight company and makes her first start for George Weaver. While she didn’t show much in her career debut, that came on turf and this surface switch actually makes plenty of sense. She’s bred to be more of a dirt horse on the female side of her pedigree, as a half-sister to solid dirt performers Catron and Waymond Boyd. I’m using her, but she’s not the kind of horse that I want to lean on at a short price. I’m actually just as interested in the filly drawn just outside of her. It’s a Shaw Thing sprinted first time out, also on turf, but at least she showed some early speed. She chased a fast pace before fading in the final quarter mile, as she didn’t appear to take to the turf terribly well. Given that she’s a daughter of Warrior’s Reward out of dam that ran on dirt, it’s possible that she may prefer the main track. Obviously, we don’t know if either of these fillies can run at all, but the competition is not too stiff and at least It’s a Shaw Thing is going to go off at a square price.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,6
RACE 5: WEGETSDAMUNNYS (#1)
Giant Zinger has not run quite as fast as a few of her rivals, but she’s coming off two straight victories and must be considered a major threat to continue her march through her New York-bred conditions. While she won by only a nose in each of her last two starts, she’s beaten some decent fillies. That was especially true last time, when she went three wide around the far turn and made the first move ahead of the talented Myhartblongstodady. I’m using her, but there are definitely others to consider. Purely Lucky skipped this condition when she tried her hand against open N1X allowance foes two back, and she actually ran very well that day. A dirt experiment failed last time, and now she’s heading back to the right class level. I do wonder if she wants to go a bit farther than 1 1/16 miles, but I think she must be used. I’m using both of these fillies, but I think it would be unwise to dismiss the horses coming out of the New York Stallion Series Stakes on Aug. 9. Kreesie had some trouble that day as she got caught between horses in upper stretch, but she ultimately had her chance in the late stages and flattened out. I’ve been a fan of that race’s runner-up, Wegetsdamunnys, and I think her turf races are better than they appear. She had to alter course multiple times when rallying through the lane on June 24, and then last time out, she rallied determinedly despite going wide around both turns. She’s proven that distance is no issue for her, and I like that she’s drawn inside this time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,7,8
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with 4,5,6,7,8
RACE 9: SWEET STING (#7)
I found this to be a particularly tricky turf race, because I really don’t want to rely on likely favorite Data Dependent, and this field is very evenly-matched once you look beyond her. Data Dependent did run well last time, as she made a strong closing move into a race that was dominated on the front end. She clearly has ability, but she is now going to be running over a turf course that has taken plenty of rain and is unlikely to be firm by Thursday. She appears to be a filly that really needs firm ground to perform at the highest level, and it’s not as if she has that much room for error if she puts forth a subpar effort. Quivery finished well behind Data Dependent last time, but she was perhaps even more hindered by the pace, as John Velazquez had to wait to angle her into the clear at the top of the stretch after she trailed early. She has a right to take a step forward in her second start off the layoff, and she showed some ability in England as a 2-year-old. I’m using her both of these, but the filly that interests me most is Sweet Sting. I liked her effort behind the talented older mare La Moneda two back, and I thought she never really had a chance to give a true account of herself in the Riskaverse last time. That stakes was contested on one of the few days that we saw a truly firm turf course at Saratoga. That course profile coupled with the slow early pace produced a race that turned into a sprint to the wire. Sweet Sting was out of position throughout the running, and just could not quicken with the top two in the lane. She’s better than that, and I still have hope that she could ultimately prove to be the best horse in this race.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,5
Trifecta: 7 with 1,3 with 1,2,3,4,5