by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 3: 9 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 7 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 2 - 3 - 1 - 7
Race 7: 10 - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 9: 2 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 10: 14 - 4 - 11 - 5
RACE 4: LUCKY LOTTO (#7) / STREET HEAT (#4)
Pirellone figures to take money off his blowout win going 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga last time. He was left alone on the lead that day and just ran off from the field in the stretch. However, this is a tougher field, and he has to contend with Nonna's Boy on the front end. I instead prefer a pair of runners looking to regain the form they displayed during the Belmont spring/summer meet. My top pick is Lucky Lotto, who was outrun last time at Saratoga when compromised by a speed-favoring track and a slow pace. He's probably best going today's one-mile distance, and he now makes his first start for the Robertino Diodoro barn, currently being managed by assistant trainer Rob Atras. I'll use him with Street Heat, who is a little dirtied up after losing two races at this level at Saratoga. He was mildly compromised by wide trips on both occasions and by a stumbling start last time. He figures to be placed closer to the pace this time, and I'm not sure that he's actually lost a step since he won a couple of races at Belmont in the spring.
Win: 4,7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,5
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 4,7 with 2,3,5 with 4,7
RACE 5: CLASSIC COVEY (#7)
Chad Brown starts a pair of well-bred first-time starters who came with hefty price tags. Untraceable worked a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at the Fasig- Tipton sale in 2016 and is a half-brother to Bear Tough Tiger, a talented sprinter. Nezet is out of the multiple Grade 1 winner Pure Clan and was one of the most expensive yearling purchases of 2015 at more than $1.6 million. This barn will take its time with horses when necessary, but it's still somewhat concerning that they are both debuting toward the end of their 3-year-old seasons. Of those who have run, Jahaafel figures to take the most money. He rode the rail, which was definitely the place to be on the Saratoga turf course, whereas Now in a Drive had a much tougher trip in that race. While Jahaafel was cutting the corner, Now in a Drive had to steady and got spun out in the 3 or 4 path around the far turn. He's the one I would want out of that race, but he's had many chances already at this level. I instead want to get a little creative, so I'm taking a shot with Classic Covey off the layoff. He ran well in his debut last fall at Aqueduct, making a belated bid behind the talented runner Yoshida after being reserved in the early stages. Bill Mott’s runners improve with racing, and Classic Covey returns as a new gelding and with Lasix for the first time. Furthermore, over the past five years, Mott is 9 for 39 (23 percent, $2.22 ROI) with maidens coming off layoffs of 180 days or longer in turf routes.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,9
Trifecta: 7 with 1,4 with 1,3,4,6,9
RACE 6: CERRO (#2)
Lex Vegas is the deserving favorite here based on his overall body of work. However, I'm somewhat troubled by his dull effort last time. He got a good trip, sitting well off the dueling leaders, but had no punch when called upon in the stretch. That performance necessitated this drop in class, but he might have to improve on that effort marginally in order to beat this field. I prefer others at better prices. I'm certainly afraid of A Fleet Attitude, who has been claimed by the always-dangerous Danny Gargan. His recent form is solid, and any improvement on his last effort would make him a serious win candidate. I'll use him, but my top pick is Cerro. I know that Mitch Friedman is not considered as prolific a claiming trainer as Bruce Levine, but I don't view this as a very negative trainer switch. This horse is capable of winning at sprint distances but was just compromised by a track that was tilted against him last time, as horses with speed and position toward the inside had an advantage on Aug. 12. His prior effort at Churchill Downs would make him awfully tough to beat, and he's been competitive at this level for a long time before that.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,7
RACE 9: CANDID DESIRE (#2)
It will be interesting to see how the pace develops in this spot. The Pace Projector is predicting a scenario that favors horses on or near the lead, but I have to think that the pace will at least be honest given the specifics of this situation. Hey Jabber Jaw looks like the fastest early, and he's drawn inside, which forces Mike Luzzi to send him. Angry Moon is piloted by the typically aggressive Kendrick Carmouche and seems unable to effectively pass horses, so he has to get sent to the lead as well. I think it's likely that they hook up and set it up for a late runner. The logical closer is Ostrolenka, and we'll have to see if he can bring his stellar Saratoga form downstate to Belmont. I respect him, but he's going to be a very short price, so I prefer the less obvious closer, Candid Desire. This horse ran in a couple of very tough spots up at Saratoga and did not disgrace himself on either occasion. He doesn't have any flashy speed figures in his past performances, but he always shows up and will be there to take advantage if Ostrolenka doesn't produce a top effort. At two or three times the price of the favorite, he's my pick.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,6
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with ALL