by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 9 - 8
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   8 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 5:   1 - 10 - 7 - 8
Race 6:   12 - 6 - 7 - 10
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 8:   2 - 8 - 13 - 12
Race 9:   6 - 8 - 10 - 5

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: STREET VENDOR (#2)
Flip the Script and Street Vendor exit the same maiden event on Aug. 15 at Saratoga. The former runner might attract some support based on his trip, but I prefer the Todd Pletcher second time starter. I’m of the opinion that Flip the Script’s own antics got the best of him last time. He seemingly had run in upper stretch of that race, but Luis Saez could never angle him into the clear as the colt had this head turned, trying to lug in. Importantly, he had gotten a great ground-saving trip up until encountering that stretch traffic, whereas today’s rival Street Vendor was outside on both turns. Aug. 15 was a day when the rails were at 0 feet on the inner turf, and Street Vendor was always racing outside after breaking slowly. He doesn’t possess a quick turn of foot, but he was relentless once Rosario got him into top gear, finishing fastest of all to get up for second. Pletcher is a decent 14 for 51 (27%, $1.51 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in turf routes over 5 years.A repeat of that performance will make him tough to beat, and he’s trained well out of that race. The other horse that interests me is Daunt, who didn’t take any money on debut, which is understandable for connections who rarely win first time out. He actually ran a respectable race, as he was never inside and stayed on willingly through the stretch. He has a right to do better with that experience under his belt, and is bred to be a good one, out of Grade 3-placed turfer Promotional. I would also use the other Pletcher runner Napa Valley, who has worked much better on the turf since his debut.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 3,7,8,9
Trifecta: 2 with 7,9 with 3,7,8,9
 

RACE 4: EASY SHOT (#8)
This $25k claimer is very confusing, as there is no clear standout and those with turf form aren’t the easiest to trust. That’s certainly the case with Vettori Kin, who could go favored first off the claim for Rob Atras. His best turf efforts will surely beat this field, but he has no early speed and he’s coming off one of his worst efforts in some time when he was uncompetitive at this level at Saratoga. He was going out for a trainer who rarely wins on the turf at that time. However, Atras is only 3 for 24 (13%, $1.02 ROI) first off the claim on turf, as he does his best work on dirt. I took a somewhat negative view of him, though I acknowledge he can win. Outrageous Bet is more appealing as he’s just getting back to the right level and distance after trying an 11-furlong handicap at Monmouth last time. He didn’t run that badly but conventional route distances are more in his wheelhouse. He appears to have improved since getting claimed by Pat Reynolds and has the tactical speed to work out a decent trip. I’m going in a different direction with Easy Shot. He’s been campaigned primarily on dirt in his career, but his prior attempts over turf are worth some scrutiny. In his turf debut he actually ran very well to be second at the Fair Grounds, just a half-length behind Tell Your Daddy, who has since gone on to become a graded stakes winner. That was a strong effort, but he was subsequently thrown into a pair of even more difficult turf assignments. He was uncompetitive in a very tough allowance race at Churchill in June 2020 and then was badly overmatched behind Factor This in a stakes at Ellis Park. Now he’s been claimed by John Terranova, who doesn’t claim many horses but has had some limited success with new acquisitions. His recent form is better than it appears and I think he could appreciate the surface switch.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,6,7
 

RACE 5: TOGA DANCER (#1)
The horses exiting the off-the-turf fifth race on Aug. 20 at Saratoga need to be discussed, as Sundaeswithsandy and Excursionniste both figure to take some money in this spot. They have decent turf pedigree, as the former is a half-brother to multiple turf winner Crack Shot and the latter is by good turf influence Tourist. However, they’re going to get bet because they possess decent dirt form. Yet this is a turf race, and there are others in here who will get somewhat overlooked based on less appealing form despite having just as much pedigree for grass. One of those is Kingham Hill, who finished far back in that Aug. 20 event. However, he was competing over the wrong surface. He’s by good turf influence Declaration of War and is a half-brother to 3 turf winners. I’m definitely using him, but I’m most interested in a colt who has already tried this surface. Toga Dancer didn’t take much money in his debut earlier in the Saratoga meet, and ran like a horse who needed the race. He was off slowly and lagged at the back of the pack before passing some tired rivals late. He figures to do better with that experience under his belt, and he’s certainly bred to excel at today’s conditions. Furthermore, Michelle Nevin is a solid 5 for 31 (16%, $2.00 ROI) with maiden second time starters on turf over the past 5 years.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,7,8,10
 

RACE 7: GOT THE GOLD (#4)
Blitz to Win is clearly the one to beat, having earned TimeformUS Speed Figures that would make him formidable here in each of his last three starts. That said, he’s been in spots where he’s seemed like a strong contender before and he’s failed to get the job done. Notably, he’s done most of his best work sprinting and has run the two worst races of his career in routes. Therefore, it's a little curious that his connections have again entered him to go a mile. He adds blinkers for this, which could get him a little more involved early. However, he’s not the easiest horse to take at a short price. Some may go to V Pattern as the alternative, and he is bred to stretch out as a half-brother to Papa Shot, Sharp Starr, and Speke – all of whom improved going longer on the dirt. That said, he hasn’t shown much in his two career starts and could take some money here given the rider switch to Luis Saez. I prefer Got the Gold, who finished just ahead of him last time. This gelding didn’t do much to distinguish himself when in Linda Rice’s barn over the winter, failing to make an impact in his debut before finishing a dull third against maiden claiming company. He was claimed out of that race by Chris Englehart, and returned 5 months later at Saratoga showing significant improvement. He was off slowly and outrun early but launched an eye-catching late run to get up for second while racing on his wrong lead. Now he’s stretching back out to a mile, but he’s bred to handle it with plenty of stamina pedigree on the bottom side of his pedigree.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5
 

RACE 8: MASHNEE GIRL (#2)
Get the Candy could go favored here after posting one of the highest speed figures in the field last time out when finishing second at this level at Saratoga. She used her early speed as a weapon from the outside post position and just couldn’t quite fend off a longshot in the late stages. I thought that was an improvement on her maiden victory, when she had everything her own way on the front end and sprinted home over a weaker field. She’s obviously a contender, but there is far more early speed signed on this time and she has to overcome yet another wide draw. That could also be an issue for Blame It On Mary, but at least she’ll be a more enticing price. This filly has only started once on turf, but it was a very good effort. She stalked a blistering early pace that ultimately fell apart and she hung around best of the other speeds through the stretch. She’s been off for a little while but she can factor here if she returns in top form. Given the amount of speed signed on, Tis a Pity seems like the logical closer. She was somewhat compromised by having to make a wide move at this level last time in a race where winner Jill’s a Hot Mess snuck up the rail with a great trip. That said, her form is now exposed as she improved on her visually impressive maiden win against weaker. I’m using her, but she’s going to be much shorter than the 7-1 she went off at last time. I’m getting more creative with my top pick. Mashnee Girl figures to be a generous price in here and she has a lot to prove as she returns from an extended layoff. Her speed figures say she’s too slow, but those were earned when she was a 2-year-old an competing in the wrong races. She was always meant for turf last year but was badly overmatched the one time she got to try it in the Miss Grillo. She was never going to be competitive there, against some legitimate open company fillies while going a distance that is too far. Now she’s returning from the layoff and appears to be working like a horse who has really stepped forward during the time away. I like that maiden-breaking jockey Jose Lezcano climbs back aboard, and she figures to be somewhat ignored in the wagering.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 8,10,12,13