by David Aragona
 

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   1A - 9 - 5 - 4
Race 3:   3 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   7 - 4 - 12 - 5
Race 5:   6 - 5 - 9 - 4
Race 6:   9 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 7:   4 - 12 - 11 - 7
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 9 - 1
Race 9:   5 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 10:   2 - 9 - 13 - 6

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS (#2)
Potential favorite Pecatonica significantly improved this summer at Saratoga, twice hitting the board at this level after winning her N1X condition. The issue is that she got nearly perfect trips in all of those races, saving ground on the turns before rallying in the stretch. Perhaps this is the day she finally breaks through this condition, but she doesn’t have any kind of speed figure edge over this field and could be an underlay. Among her main rivals are Out of Trouble and Vip Nation. The former got the job done against a weaker claiming field last time at Saratoga. While she did have excuses in her two prior starts at this level, she still has to prove that she can transfer that improved form into this tougher spot. Vip Nation could be the one to catch, depending on how Short Pour is ridden. This 5-year-old mare disappointed against claimers last time, but she had run deceptively well after blowing the start in her return from the layoff two back. Rudy Rodriguez has poor numbers off the claim with turf horses, but I won’t be surprised if this mare runs well for this barn. Yet I want to go in a different direction with Dancingwthdaffodls. This grey mare had achieved most of her success as a turf sprinter coming into that last start, yet she ran surprisingly well going the two-turn mile. That race was dominated towards the front end and she never had proper position, racing wide at the back of the pack. She lost significant ground around the second turn, yet kicked for home nicely to get up for third. She’s capable of better than that and is now reunited with regular rider Jose Ortiz. I think she can pull off the upset if she gets a little pace to close into.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,5,8
 

RACE 3: BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#3)
My primary opinion in this race is that I’m against Legit, who could vie for favoritism. This horse just missed at this level last time at Saratoga when closing from far back to finish second. However, he had everything in his favor that day, as he lagged behind an extremely fast pace and was merely picking up the pieces at the end. The horse that you should want out of that race instead is Winston’s Chance, who chased that swift pace while racing wide for most of his trip on a day when the rail may have been an advantage. This time there is very little speed signed on, which should work against Legit and may help the tactical Winston’s Chance. Another horse who figures to attract support is Kingmeister, an improving 3-year-old who recently won an off-the-turf event by over 5 lengths. While he does still have upside in a race dominated by proven commodities, I feel that he’d have to improve again to compete against this field. He benefited from a slow pace last time in a race that just doesn’t quite measure up to those that the others are exiting. My top pick is Backsideofthemoon. I’ve long been a fan of this 8-year-old, but I’ll readily admit that he doesn’t often win. That said, he’s generally been in strong form for the better part of the past year. After winning a pair of races for Rudy Rodriguez at Aqueduct, he was claimed for $100,000 by the current connections, who proceeded to throw him into some ambitious spots. He had no chance rating behind a slow pace in the Alydar last time and two back he actually ran quite well behind the top two finishers in the Grade 1 Forego, Win Win Win and Complexity. While that form is solid, he’s finally getting the class relief he needs and he’s unlikely to be favored given the connections of the other runners in this race.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with ALL
 

RACE 4: UNICORN SALLY (#7)
Kept Waiting is clearly the filly to beat as she drops in for a tag for the first time following two solid efforts at the maiden special weight level. She barely lost on July 22 at Saratoga after leading most of the way, and then couldn’t quite fend off a fast-finishing Kilkea when again second in August. As long as she maintains her form it’s going to take an improved effort by a competitor to defeat her. The obvious alternative is Micromillion, who was in over her head on the wrong surface when she contested the Fleet Indian last time. Prior to that she put forth a pair of solid efforts on the turf, overcoming a wide trip to finish second at this level on July 25 before trying tougher maiden special weight foes two back. While she clearly has improved on the turf recently, she’s never run fast enough to beat the favorite and isn’t likely to offer much value. I prefer another alternative, Unicorn Sally. This filly has run just as fast as Micromillion and generally done so against tougher company. She closed well to be fourth in a maiden special weight event at Belmont in June, and then was hindered by poor trips in her last two starts at Saratoga. She finished well behind Kept Waiting in the July 22 maiden event, but she stumbled at the start and was wide thereafter. Then last time when dropped in for this tag she got a ridiculously wide trip, getting fanned into the 5 or 6 path when attempting to launch a rally on the far turn. She’s better than that and the move to Belmont’s Widener course and switch to Joel Rosario should help her.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,12
 

RACE 5: AUTOSTRADE (#6)
I’m not thrilled with the shorter prices in this race. Horses like Mills and Scarf It Down can obviously win, but I find each of them tough to take in this spot. The former possesses more consistent overall form, but he was pretty dull in that off-the-turf race last time. You could also argue that he was lucky to earn that victory at Belmont back in June when Scarf It Down stumbled at the start, made an early move, and just missed. I prefer Scarf It Down based on that performance, but it’s hard to explain his subsequent effort at Saratoga in which he was basically eased. He’s had time to recover since then and the Orlando Noda barn has been winning at a high rate in recent months. Yet I still want to look elsewhere. Some may try to make a case for the Finger Lakes shipper Financial Freedom. This horse certainly fits from a class and speed figure perspective, but I’m generally skeptical that these horses can transfer their form to the NYRA circuit, especially if they’ve never tried before. My top pick is Autostrade, since this horse is likely to be the biggest price of those I’m considering. He was terrible at Monmouth last time when dropped in for an $8,000 tag, but that race featured an extremely slow pace that worked against him. Prior to that he actually was in decent form. He was no match for a tougher field at the $25,000 level in July so I’m willing to excuse that performance. And he ran deceptively well in that June 19 race when dueling with the superior rival Leitone on the lead before fading. If he can still run at least that well on the drop in class I think he has a chance to upset this group.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,7,9
 

RACE 9: LOGIC N REASON (#5)
Capital Structure is a British-bred daughter of Lope de Vega who sold for $274,000 at the 2018 Tattersalls sale. She had been in training at Palm Meadows during the spring but didn’t make her debut until July at Monmouth when she surprised a solid maiden field to win at odds of 6-1. She was much the best that day, as she overcame an awkward start by making a mid-race move to challenge for the lead before drawing off in the stretch. This filly clearly possesses talent, but it remains to be seen if she can handle this step up in class. Horses have not returned out of that last race to perform particularly well in subsequent starts, so she certainly has some questions to answer. I’m using her, but I didn’t want to accept a very short price on her. Her main rival is the returning Crystalle, winner of last year’s P. G. Johnson at Saratoga. While she would clearly be a player in this race if able to take a natural step forward off her two-year-old form, her running style could be a hindrance. She’s a deep closer who typically breaks slowly from the gate, and that figures to be a problem in a race that lacks pace. I prefer Logic N Reason, who could play out as the early leader by default. This filly disappointed in her return from the layoff in June, but she ran much better last time at Saratoga. The pace of that July 26 affair was fast, and Logic N Reason was part of a four-horse vanguard leading the field down the backstretch. She finished well ahead of the other horses involved in that pace but was ultimately passed in a race dominated by closers. The 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for that performance is the highest in this field, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the early leader.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 3,4 with 2,3,4,6
 

RACE 10: MADAM DEPUTY (#2)
I’ve seen enough of Love Me Tomorrow, who may go favored here. She always attracts support but just can’t seem to get the job done even when she finds herself in favorable scenarios. Perhaps she’ll shake loose on the front end this time, as she is clearly faster than her rivals in the early going, but I’m still skeptical that she can hang on late. Mind of Gold is her main rival as she ships to NYRA for Wayne Potts. That 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned at Monmouth last time seems pretty legitimate, and she arguably could have been closer had the winner not drifted into her path in upper stretch. She gets a positive rider switch to Joel Rosario and must be taken seriously. I’ll use both, but I thought this was a spot to get a little more creative. My top pick is Madam Deputy, who wheels back on 6 days’ rest after fading here on opening day. While that 19-length margin of defeat looks discouraging, she actually didn’t run as badly as that finishing position would indicate. This filly was contesting a fast pace three-wide in a race that totally fell apart late. She was actually traveling quite well coming to the quarter pole before she shortened stride in the last couple of furlongs. The 7 furlongs was too much for her to handle that day, but now she’s cutting back in distance and catching a weaker field despite moving up in claiming price. Rudy Rodriguez is a solid 9 for 41 (22%, $2.34 ROI) with horses coming off 1 to 7 day layoffs on dirt over the past 5 years. She ran well enough to win this in her debut and could get somewhat lost here with a low-percentage rider named.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 6,9,10,13