by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 3: 5 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 5: 4 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 8 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 7: 5 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 7 - 8 - 1
RACE 1: DAYS OF SPRING (#2)
There aren’t many appealing longshots on this card, so I’m merely highlighting some horses who I believe are likely winners, though most of them will be relatively short prices. Days of Spring is the horse to beat as she drops in class for the first time while returning from a brief layoff. Todd Pletcher is 17 for 58 (29%, $2.16 ROI) with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming company in turf routes over the past 5 years. She was overmatched in her prior start when finishing behind Sweet Melania, who went on to be second in the P. G. Johnson Stakes. The second- and third-place finishers also returned out of that race to win against solid company, so that was a strong race. Days of Spring was also hindered by the slow early pace of that race, as she was wrangled to the back of the pack in the early going and couldn’t muster much of a late run. She actually may have shown some improvement with the stretch-out, so I like that Todd Pletcher is keeping her at a mile. If she merely holds her form, she’s going to be difficult to beat. Her main rival is first-time starter Princess Fawzia, who goes out for Linda Rice. This barn typically does better second time out, but this filly has some turf pedigree and wouldn’t need to be much to have a say in this race. At a bigger price, I would also want to throw in Wild North. This filly didn’t do much running in her debut, but she’s bred to improve on this surface. Daredevil has the pedigree to be a decent turf sire and her dam earned all 3 of her victories on turf before producing a turf winner. I’ll throw her in underneath.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6
Trifecta: 2 with 3,6 with 2,4,6,7
RACE 5: CLYDE’S RUNNER (#4)
It seems like Chad Brown has had trouble figuring out exactly where Variant Perception belongs from a class perspective. He hastily dropped him in for a tag back in April, but then reversed course and targeted tougher N1X allowance races more recently. He ran well against a tough foe in King of Spades at Monmouth two back, but then disappointed at Saratoga last time. He had a minor excuse given his rough trip through the opening furlongs that day, but he did little running thereafter. He now is dropping and just seems to have a slight class edge on this group, though I wouldn’t want to take too short of a price. Inscom would have also attracted some support in this race, but the connections of that horse have instead decided to start his stablemate Business Cycle, who has little turf pedigree. I want to take a shot with Clyde’s Runner. The change in tactics has yielded results for this gelding this season. He showed newfound speed in his May return when wiring a field going 6 furlongs, and was then compromised by a slow pace when reverting to his former closing style on June 30. He had no trouble stretching out when again aggressively ridden last time, and he was able to hold on for the victory over next-out winner Mo Gee. There isn’t a ton of speed in this race, so he should get another favorable trip, and the one-turn mile seems perfect for him.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 4 with 7 with 1,2,3,5,8
RACE 8: CORAL LEGACY (#3)
Assuming that No Regrets doesn’t draw into this race and participates on Friday instead, Coral Legacy is likely to go off as the favorite and I see no reason to take a stand against this horse. He’s been facing subtly tougher company in all of his recent starts. Stock Trade, who beat him three back, is vastly superior to this group. Coral Legacy understandably tired going the demanding 9 furlongs at Saratoga last time. He made his most recent start at Monmouth and I thought he arguably put forth the best effort of his career, as he closed for third against a stronger group than the one he meets here. The pace of that race held together on the front end, and Coral Legacy was closing best of all late. Christophe Clement has been enjoying a strong Belmont meet and it seems like he’s found a perfect spot for this horse. I just can’t get behind any of the alternatives, particularly since I’m against all of the horses exiting the race at this level from Sept. 14. That was won by the 3-year-old Honorable Hero, who arguably isn’t even as good as Coral Legacy. The pace held together that day, so I’d tend to favor horses coming from off the pace in that spot. However, even those who ran reasonably well, like Risky Sour, can’t be trusted to win. Coral Legacy won’t be much of a price, but he just seems like he is probably going to get the job done, and I’d lean on him heavily in the multi-race sequences ending here.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,5,7,8
Trifecta: 3 with 7,8 with 1,2,5,8,10