by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 2: 7 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 4: 7 - 6 - 2
Race 5: 4 - 13 - 9 - 8
Race 6: 9 - 5 - 7 - 8
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 5 - 10 - 7 - 3
RACE 2: BLUSHING JUSTINE (#7)
It’s difficult to have too much confidence in any of the entrants in this race, including the likely favorite, Our Whim. In terms of consistency, she is far and away the most trustworthy horse in this race. The problem is that she’s finished second four times in a row and has racked up 10 runner-up finishes in 22 career starts. Gary Contessa has been having a strong meet at Belmont, and this filly has earned the fastest speed figures. However, I don’t want to take a short price on a runner like this, and there are some viable alternatives at much higher prices. Probable second choice Problem Solving is worth considering as she drops in class slightly, but she has very little early speed, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. I’m taking a shot with Blushing Justine, who is sure to go off at an enticing price. This filly actually showed some ability early in her career for trainer Dennis Lalman before things went awry in February. She’s now resurfaced in the stable of Carlos Martin, and she has not run very well. On the other hand, she has been entered in a pair of spots where she was just never going to be competitive. She’s not a turf horse, so I can throw out her Aug. 23 effort, and her last effort is actually not nearly as bad as it might seem. That $40,000 claiming field was much tougher than this one, and Blushing Justine was four to five wide all the way around the far turn and into the stretch. Now, they’re adding blinkers, likely in hopes of getting some more speed into her. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be forwardly placed early, which should give her a better chance.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,5,8
RACE 3: PLAINSMAN (#2)
Mr. Buff may win this race if he repeats his last effort, but I find this favorite a little hard to trust. This New York-bred gelding has never been the most consistent sort, and his many tries at this open N1X level are good evidence of that. They skipped a condition with him early in his career, which resulted in him running one allowance condition above that for which he was eligible for well more than a year. They finally moved him back down to the N.Y.-bred N2X level this summer, and he broke through on Aug. 22. While a replication of that performance may beat this field, he was facing a much softer group. The Pace Projector is predicting he will enjoy a similarly easy early lead this time, but I think he faces a legitimate challenge from Plainsman. This Brad Cox-trained 3-year-old ran much better than it appears in his first start for the new barn last time. Weather Wiz, the winner of that race, is a solid allowance performer who would be a top contender in this race, and Plainsman arguably would have beaten him with a fair trip. Joel Rosario made a tactical error in rating Plainsman off a slow pace early, yet the horse nevertheless made up a ton of ground during the final half-mile despite being spun very wide on the turn for home. Belmont Park should be more conducive to his running style, and he displayed in his prior starts that he actually possesses more tactical speed than what was on display last time. Rosario figures to learn from that last ride, and I think this talented sophomore has a big chance to take down the favorite here.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5
Trifecta: 2 with 1 with ALL
RACE 6: HALLOWEEN HORROR (#9)
There is a ton of speed signed on in this low-level claiming race, so it’s unsurprising that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. The runners likely to vie for favoritism are Too Fast to Pass, Joy Drive, and Missile Bomb, and all do their best running when racing up close in the early going. Of those, Too Fast to Pass is the one who really needs to secure the front in order to have his best shot, so the presence of Wrong Ben, Imasuperstar, and Alright Alright could significantly impact his chances to win right back off the claim by Gary Gullo. I’m somewhat against him. Joy Drive has to be taken seriously given that he has faced tougher company in his recent starts. The drop in class is a concern, but he’s clearly good enough to win. However, given the likely race flow, I’m interested in a couple of horses who figure to be rallying from behind. One of those is No Distortion. It’s possible that this 5-year-old is just in poor form right now, but he has had legitimate excuses for his recent starts. He was too close to a fast pace while racing on a dead rail two back, and then he just didn’t handle the turf last time. His prior speed figures make him competitive, and these connections have done good work with their claims. I’m using him, but my top pick is Halloween Horror. Six furlongs is probably a little short for this horse, but I can’t ignore that he owns the highest TimeformUS Late Pace Rating in a race that features a ton of speed. Furthermore, he has been racing against significantly tougher company in most of his recent starts. He dropped into this same level last time, but he was hindered by a slow pace in a race dominated on the front end. That performance was better than it seems, and Gary Contessa has been doing very well at this Belmont meet.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 5,6,7,8