by David Aragona
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Race 1: 9 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 11 - 2 - 5 - 8
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 8 - 3 - 11
Race 5: 6 - 7 - 9 - 4
Race 6: 3 - 2 - 8 - 5
Race 7: 7 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 9: 12 - 2 - 7 - 9
RACE 2: PATH LESS TAKEN (#11)
Escapewithfriends is arguably the horse to beat as she drops back down to the maiden claiming level after running a respectable second against maiden special weight company at Saratoga last time. She was actually entered against maiden special weight foes last Saturday but was scratched in favor of this spot when that race was rained off the turf. This filly may really appreciate the return to Belmont when she can get back to the 6-furlong distance she tried in her career debut. Her main vulnerability is her tendency to break slowly, coupled with her lack of early speed. That’s not an issue for primary rival New York Supreme. This filly was pressing an honest pace at this level last time at Saratoga and made the lead in mid-stretch before getting run down late by a pair of closers. A repeat of that effort gives her a chance, and she might have run even better two back when getting carried extremely wide on the far turn. She’s in top form right now, though I wonder if they’ll change up the tactics and take her off the pace again this time. I want another horse out of that Sep. 6 race. Path Less Taken could only manage to finish fifth after stalking New York Supreme’s quick pace. However, I thought she took a nice step forward out of her debut, in which her rider got her into some trouble and didn’t ask her for any run through the lane. She may be better than her results indicate, and she showed good gate speed last time before getting reined in. Given the rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her on the lead here, and she goes out for a barn that has had a strong performance over the last several weeks.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,2,5,8
RACE 4: LIDO KEY (#5)
Candy Flower is clearly the horse to beat as she returns at the same $40k claiming level for which she won in her last start at Saratoga. Her form had tailed off over the summer under Saffie Joseph’s care, but she seemed to wake up last time off the trainer switch to Mike Maker. She was only in that barn for one start, as now she’s been claimed by Michelle Nevin. While Michelle Nevin isn’t known for great success first off the claim, she has had a couple of winners with the move on turf over the past several years, at odds of 7-1 and 21-1. That said, Candy Flower won’t be anything close to those prices, and I’m not totally sold on her as the favorite. I strongly prefer main rival Lido Key, who returns from a layoff for Mike Maker. She was aggressively spotted for this barn last winter, as she gradually dropped in class at Gulfstream despite running well in all three starts for this barn. Therefore, I think it’s a good sign that she’s moving back up to the $40k level for which she was originally claimed as she returns from the layoff. She was a visually impressive winner against weaker company when last seen, but she has prior races that make her a major player at this level. And importantly, Maker specializes with this move. Over the past 5 years, he is 8 for 18 (44%, $3.15 ROI) off layoffs of 180 to 360 days in claiming turf routes.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 3,8,11
RACE 5: KLICKITAT (#6)
Ghost Giant and Klickitat exit the same open N1X race on closing day at Saratoga. Ghost Giant finished one placing and about 2 lengths ahead of Klickitat, but he worked out the better trip. That Rob Atras trainee didn’t have an ideal trip by any means, going 3-wide on both the clubhouse and far turn, but he had his chance in the stretch and just wasn’t good enough. Klickitat, on the other hand, was even wider, racing 4 to 5 paths off the rail on both turns. He was dealt a bad hand breaking from the outside post position that day and could never overcome it. According to Trakus, Klickitat covered 72 more feet than the eventual winner, and 29 more feet than Ghost Giant. He also didn't get a great trip two back when he was 3-wide around both turns facing another tough field of open company rivals. This Jimmy Jerkens pupil should appreciate getting back to Belmont Park where he won at this level back in July. I would expect him to be more forwardly placed under Eric Cancel, who rode him well in that most recent victory. I think he’s still in pretty solid form, and the drop in class back into New York-bred company should suit him. The other horse that I’d use is Regal Speaker, who was improving when last seen in early summer. I’m not sure why he never made a start in Saratoga, as he was training up there all summer. However, he goes out for a dangerous barn and could still be on the upswing.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 4,7,9
Trifecta: 6 with 7,9 with 4,5,7,9
RACE 6: TRIPLE ELVIS (#3)
This two-year-old maiden even is loaded with intriguing pedigrees and could prove to be a key race down the line when its participants stretch out. While the firsters are definitely worth following, the horse who seems best suited to win today is Triple Elvis. This colt’s Saratoga debut was disappointing considering he had trained well. He was off a step slowly and never really got into the race. Yet that’s been a productive maiden event, as winner Major General returned to win the Grade 3 Iroquois and fourth-place Judge Davis won his next start. There's quality in this pedigree beyond Into Mischief, as his second dam is the great Serena's Song. Chad Brown is 6-for-25 (24%, $1.93 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. Most importantly, he’s been training even better for his second outing. He outworked impressive debut winner Key Point on Sep. 11 and then was perhaps a touch best over today’s rival Green Jacket on Sep. 25. Green Jacket is also one to consider as he makes his debut for Brown. By Curlin, his dam was beaten a neck in her only start, and this is her first foal to race. The dam is out of G2 Molly Pitcher winner Quiet Giant, making her a half-sister to Gun Runner. He’s a big, strong-looking colt, but everything about him says that he’ll ultimately be more of a route type. I expect him to come running late, but he should do even better when the distances get longer. The Todd Pletcher duo is more difficult to read. Mo Donegal appeared to be working well in early summer before he missed some training time in August. He’s another who may want more ground. Varatti is bred to win early as a son of Into Mischief, but his workouts have given me mixed signals. At times he’s looked precocious but he also has some dull drills mixed in there. As for the others, Sidekick has a huge pedigree, being a half-brother to Code of Honor. Yet he’s one who looks like he could need a race. And at a bigger price, I would even use a horse like Printrack underneath. He has a throwback pedigree, being by Awesome Again out of a dam who is a full-sister to Greenwood Lake and a half-sister to 1987 BC Juvenile winner Success Express.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,2,5,8
RACE 8: REJECTED AGAIN (#2)
Perfect Munnings could go favored here as he returns to turf for the first time since his career debut. I don’t mind him on this surface, but he’s going to take money off a flashy dirt speed figure last time, and I think it’s a mistake to take horses switching surfaces under these circumstances. Scocciatore also would fall into this category. Both of these runners are obviously contenders, but there are others worth considering at better prices in this wide open affair. A few horses exit the sixth race on Aug. 28, won by Big Package. Colton’s Command made some mild late progress up the rail, but I actually thought Christopher ran better in that spot. The pace came apart, and he was game to battle on after making an early move to take over in mid-stretch. He’s really found his niche as a turf sprinter for a low-profile barn and could be a fair price once again. I almost put him on top, but I couldn’t resist another rival at what should be an even bigger price. Rejected Again isn’t competitive here based on most of his prior turf efforts, all of which have come at route distances. However, he’s really stepped forward this summer since the claim by Leah Gyarmati, and has improved sprinting on dirt. He was a surprising second in a salty open claiming race two back, and last time ran very well to close for fourth behind Baby Yoda in one of the fastest races of the entire year anywhere in the country. Given his preference for sprint distances on dirt, it stands to reason that he may just want to sprint on turf as well. He possesses a versatile running style and could get somewhat ignored for this low-profile barn, even as he gets an intriguing rider switch to Paco Lopez.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,11
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 1,4,9,10,11