PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   9 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 4:   1 - 7 - 8 - 2
Race 5:   8 - 11 - 4 - 10
Race 6:   1 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 7:   7 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 8:   3 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 9:   4 - 5 - 11 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: QUEEN OF CASTLE (#9)
The horse to beat is Miss Aja Brown, who stretches out to seven furlongs, which figures to be more to her liking. Her return from the layoff was decent considering her wide trip, and she should move forward. I’ll use her, but I think Queen of Castle will offer better value. This filly has been facing slightly tougher company in New York-bred allowance races and now drops in for a tag. She tends to flatten out late in her races at a mile and beyond, so this slight turnback could work for her.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,8

RACE 3: PHI BETA EXPRESS (#1)
I don’t really trust the shorter prices in this affair. Old Dubai will take money based on the connections and pedigree, but he really didn’t do any significant running in his debut. Thaddeus has been facing tougher maiden fields recently, but I’m still not convinced that he’s really that good. Instead, I’ve landed on Phi Beta Express. I know that he, too, needs to step up his game, but he’s getting a positive trainer switch to Danny Gargan. He was very green in his first couple of starts, and his last race at Fair Grounds was better than it appears considering the pace. The one first time starter that I want to include is Tommy T. This barn knows how to win with a firster despite the fact that they haven’t done it much in recent years, and the worktable looks solid.

Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,4,5

RACE 4: TRES CHARMANT (#1)
Horses like Rock Ave. Road and Out of Nowhere have run pretty well in recent races at this level, but neither one is a terribly exciting bet. I’m going to try to beat them with the lightly raced Tres Charmant. The head-on replay of this filly’s lone start last month is worth watching. I don’t know what the plan was, but Jose Ortiz never asked her for any serious run during the opening half-mile, and she lost contact with the field. However, when he finally set her down in the stretch, she absolutely took off. She ran the fastest final quarter of anyone in the field and proceeded to gallop out past them all after the wire – including the winner, who beat her by more than 20 lengths – as Ortiz continued to niggle at her. Linda Rice gets a 100 Trainer Rating with second-time starters, and this seems like a horse who simply wasn’t meant to win her debut.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,7,8

RACE 5: D’YER MAK’ER (#8)
Elenzee is going to take money here, but I’m not thrilled with his chances. He had everything his own way up front when beating a weaker field to win his maiden last time out, and the waters get deeper this time. Ordinaire makes plenty of sense off his prior turf form as he gets back to his best distance. However, if I’m going to take a runner coming off an extended layoff, it’s D’yer Mak’er, who figures to offer much better value. Both of this gelding’s turf starts from late last season are better than they appear. That was especially true on Nov. 25, when he made a four-wide run around the far turn and still got up for third.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,10,11

RACE 6: DREAM DOCTOR (#1)
The classy Iron Power is dropping in for a tag today, and his recent form has been somewhat inconsistent. I’ll use him, but I prefer others. Rapt had to wait in traffic while making his stretch bid last time, but the race was falling apart late, so he was very much with the flow. My top pick is Dream Doctor. I’ve been a fan of this horse, and I think he lands in a good spot where he should work out a great stalking trip along the rail. He’s proven that he can win off this kind of layoff, and assuming Iron Power doesn’t show up, who else is there to be afraid of in this spot?

Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,3,5

RACE 7: EVERYBODYLUVSRUDY (#7)
Emancipation is going to go off as a heavy favorite and very well may turn out to be the most talented runner in this bunch in time. However, based on his debut, he’s just one of many contenders. He got a strong pace to close into that day, and now he’s stepping up to face a deeper field. A short price on him translates to better value on everyone else. I’m going to take a shot with Everybodyluvsrudy. I know that his recent races are on the slow side, but he’s had a series of minor excuses. This horse showed real potential as a 2-year-old, and we’re still waiting for him to take that next step forward at 3. I’d like to see Paco Lopez get him involved a bit earlier since this race does not feature that much early speed.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5,6