by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 4: 8 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 6: 3 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 7: 3 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 8: 4 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 9: 2 - 3 - 1 - 4
RACE 3: CELEBRATION (#5)
If White Flag merely repeats the strong effort that he put forth in his 4-year-old debut, he should be awfully tough for this field to handle. This runner showed his class with solid performances against stakes company last year, and he clearly appreciated the return to Belmont Park last time. Christophe Clement’s horses have been running very well over the past month and he appears to be trying to squeeze in a few more wins before we head upstate. I’m hardly against this favorite, but there are some other options to consider at more attractive prices. Snowday is obviously classy enough to compete with White Flag, having finished just behind Disco Partner in the Belmont Turf Sprint last fall. However, he will need to be at his best in his first start off the layoff. I could see how some might make cases for runners like Weekend Hideaway and Vici, but neither of those contenders really interest me in this spot. The horse that I think is most likely to take a step forward in this race is Celebration. He was ambitiously spotted in his U.S. debut going a distance that is probably too far for him. He was far too eager in the early portions of that race and didn’t have much left for the finish. That said, he still only finished a few lengths behind solid stakes performers Force the Pass, Irish Strait, and Dalarna. Now he turns back to six furlongs, which should be an ideal distance for him. He was a confirmed sprinter in Europe before coming to this country, carving out a decent reputation running in handicaps. He was actually in career form when last seen racing in Ireland, as his only poor performance during 2017 was due to a bad trip in September.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,7
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 1,4,7
RACE 4: HER LATEST FILM (#8)
Both of the first-time turfers figure to take money given a lack of other options. Wise Strike may end up going favored, since she is likely to win this race if she transfers her dirt form to turf. She is certainly bred to do just that, since her dam was a stakes-winning turf sprinter, and this filly is a half-sister to a turf winner. It’s somewhat curious that Chad Brown avoided running her on turf last year, but he’s dangerous off layoffs and she must be taken seriously. Majestic Won may go off at a slightly higher price, and she, too, is bred to take to this surface as a half-sister to 3 turf winners. She went favored in her debut at Gulfstream last December, but she never really threatened while finishing third. I’m using both of these fillies, but I actually prefer the runner with the best turf experience under her belt. Her Latest Film is still trying to find an identity after three starts. She made a solid late run in her debut going 5 furlongs at Gulfstream, but hasn’t been able to produce much of a late kick in a couple of route attempts at this meet. It is worth noting that she ran much better than it appears last time, as she raced 3 to 4 wide all the way around the turn after breaking from the outside post position. While she is bred to go long on the dam’s side of her pedigree, she is a daughter of War Front, and she runs like a filly that may appreciate a turnback.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,5,6
RACE 5: SPECTACULAR PLUM (#2)
This is one of the most confounding races on the card, since any of the seven entrants seemingly has a right to win. Congruity is probably the horse to beat, merely because he’s the likely front-runner in a race where no one else seems too intent on taking the early lead. He was beaten by Michael Wonderful last time, but you can argue that Congruity ran the better race after setting a solid early tempo. I don’t want any of the horses exiting the June 15 race at this level. Michael Wonderful lost as the 3-5 favorite as two of today’s rivals finished ahead of him. Alwanees and My Pirate both improved with the switch to turf, but I feel that they just took advantage of a weak group, whereas this race is tougher. Year of the Kitten is one to consider as he drops in class, but his recent form has been awful. Therefore, I’m taking a shot with new face Spectacular Plum. Whereas almost all of these horses have been running against straight three-year-olds in their recent starts, Spectacular Plum has been knocking heads with tougher older rivals at Monmouth. He never had a chance in that May 26 race after blowing the start and racing far off a pace that held together up front. Then last time, he actually ran very well despite not receiving a great trip. He got shuffled out of position down the backstretch and had to make a 4-wide run around the far turn, which is especially detrimental at Monmouth. All things considered, he ran remarkably well to only lose by 2 lengths as he was finishing fastest of all late. That race received a TimeformUS Race Rating of 102, whereas today’s race gets a preliminary rating of 96 – indicative of a significant drop in class. He also gets an important rider switch to John Velazquez.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 5,7 with ALL
RACE 7: CARTHON (#3)
This race has been brought back from the cancelled July 1 card. Yet that race’s heavy favorite, Minsky Moment, was not entered back, leaving this as a wide-open affair. Blurred Line will inherit the favorite’s role, but I’m just not enamored with this horse. I know he ran well going 1 3/16 miles at Gulfstream in his second start but he has not validated that performance in any of this other races. He got a very lucky bob to win in his first start for Danny Gargan last time, and the second- and third-place finishers did not come back to run well. In some ways, the horse with the best turf form is Ides of Arch. He kept solid company when working his way through the maiden ranks last year and gave a good account of himself in his first start against winners. However, he may need a start off the layoff. I suppose one of the three-year-olds has a right to improve. Gotham’s Storm was a bit rank in the early going last time, but I don’t like the race that he or Phone Funky Munky are exiting. The two most interesting horses in this race may be the first-time turfers. Most will gravitate towards Honor Up, who sports a decent turf workout and has been well-back in recent starts. However, I’m more interested in Carthon. The way this horse got over a sealed racetrack in his maiden victory gives me hope that he’ll handle turf. While he doesn’t have significant damside turf pedigree, a few of his siblings handled this surface. Tapizar is a decent turf influence, as his progeny have been connecting at 12% on this surface. Furthermore, there is very little speed signed on for this race, so he may find himself in an advantageous position.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,6,7
RACE 8: MOROCCO (#4)
Rapt is clearly the horse to beat off the strength of his second place effort at 21-1 in the Kingston, the first start of his 5-year-old campaign. He was never a threat to winner Offering Plan that day, but he still finished ahead of some nice New York-breds in a performance that validates his third behind that same foe in last fall’s Mohawk. On the surface of things, he appears to land in a great spot, as he’s a deep closer in a race that the Pace Projector is predicting will feature a fast pace. However, the scratch of Dr. Shane significantly changes the complexion of this race, making a swift early tempo less of a certainty. Generally, horses like Rapt are not great wagering propositions at short prices, since they need so much to break in their favor to come out on top. Therefore, I’m taking a shot against him with Morocco off the layoff. Assistant trainer Leana Willaford is deputizing for Bill Mott, who himself has solid numbers with turf horses coming off layoffs. This horse took a long time to break through the maiden ranks despite running well on a number of occasions, but he seemed to turn a corner last summer. He ran well to be second to Business Expense at Saratoga after breaking from an outside post position, and he followed that up with a commanding win in fast time at Kentucky Downs. It’s worth noting that both of those races were run over very firm turf courses, and he should get his preferred hard course in this race. His 2017 finale at Keeneland looks pretty disappointing, but the short comment fails to note that he completely missed the start that day, and left himself far out of position in the early going. Morocco seems to be training forwardly up at Saratoga for this return, and I like his tactical running style.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,7
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 2,3,5,7