by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1A - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 1/1A - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 6 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 5: 1 - 5 - 4 - 8
Race 6: 6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 7: 6 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 8: 3 - 6 - 4 - 5
RACE 3: CHANNEL ISLAND (#4)
The most polarizing runner in this competitive field is Felix the Fox, who tries turf for the first time. He’s run the fastest speed figures of any horse in this race and would certainly be up to the task of beating a group like this if he’s able to transfer his dirt form to grass. While he does have enough pedigree to handle this surface, he’s always been cut out to be more of a dirt horse. Furthermore, Felix the Fox tends to break slowly and tends to hang after reaching contention in deep stretch of his races. I’m using him, but I prefer the turf horses. A few horses exit the second race on June 8, and I’m not particularly enthusiastic about any of them. That was a very weak race for the level, and I think they’re all stepping up into a tougher spot here. Better Tapit is the most intriguing runner out of that affair, since he broke slowly and was in traffic late, but he still needs to improve to beat this field. Third Edition is more appealing. He kept solid company in his last two starts at Gulfstream and Keeneland and should be a factor if he brings that form to New York. In some ways, he’s the horse to beat. Yet my top pick is Channel Island. This horse needs to improve off his prior starts for Christophe Clement, but he’s in a barn that can get that done. He showed some potential at Tampa this winter while running slower figures, and he clearly took a step forward when he resurfaced at Belmont in June. That was a maiden claiming race, but he was meeting a tough group for the level. While Channel Island never threatened the winner, he stayed on well to be fourth, running like a horse who would appreciate added distance. Mike Maker is an expert at tabbing runners to excel in these elongated turf routes, and I think he can get this colt to step forward off the claim.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,5
RACE 4: PURE PRAISE (#6)
The main contenders in this race all exit the third race on May 17 at the same level. A Dixie Twister caused a minor upset that day, holding off a late charge from 4-5 favorite Annie Rocks. One can argue that Annie Rocks ran the better race, since she was too far off a moderate early pace and had to rally inside of runners in the lane. Yet there’s some question as to whether Annie Rocks, who may be the favorite again, is in top form right now, and I think she’s somewhat vulnerable. A Dixie Twister makes sense, but last time was the time to have her at 13-1. Awesome Quick is one worth considering out of that race, since she was making her first start in 7 months and contested the early pace before fading. She should be fitter this time and the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. I’m using her, but my top pick is new face Pure Praise. This filly was always cut out to be more of a sprinter, so I’m intrigued that she ran as well as she did stretching out to two turns on the turf this winter. She seems to prefer that surface, and there’s every reason to believe she can do better turning back to 6 furlongs on the grass. This is a slightly tougher spot for her, but she’s one of the few rivals with tactical speed who can stay close to Awesome Quick early. Furthermore, her trainer Roy Lerman is in the midst of a breakout season.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,7,8
RACE 6: CREATIVE STYLE (#6)
The potential favorite is Senor Jobim, a full brother to Maclean’s Music who clearly doesn’t possess the brilliance of that sibling. He did well to win at Churchill two back, but then couldn’t quite sustain that momentum when losing at this level just 8 days later. Now Asmussen brings him to New York, and this barn has not had a ton of success with these types of runners so far at the meet. Smile Bryan also comes in from Churchill Downs, and this 3-year-old is slightly more appealing to me. He arguably could have won last time had he gotten into the clear sooner in a race dominated up front. He had shown good potential in his prior start at Keeneland, and Graham Motion has been bringing live runners to Belmont. I’m using him prominently, but I think you need to respect the two horses drawn to his outside. Shamrocked is obviously fast enough to win this race if she shows up with this top effort, but that’s no guarantee after he ran poorly at Parx last time. He figures to take money in this spot, and I’m not quite sure what to do with him. Ultimately, I’ve landed on Creative Style. This runner should appreciate the turnback in distance after running deceptively well going a mile in his last start. The early pace of that race was fast and Creative Style did well to hang on for third after dueling four wide in the early going. Prior to that, he had raced wide against a rail bias on May 18, so he’s clearly in better form than it appears. Rudy Rodriguez’s runners have been performing well over the past couple of weeks, and I think this gelding lands in a great spot.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,4,5 with 1,4,5