by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 7 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 3 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 5: 7 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 9 - 2 - 3
Race 7: 6 - 2 - 4 - 1A
Race 8: 5 - 1 - 10 - 11
Race 9: 11 - 5 - 8 - 12
RACE 2: DIAMOND JEN BRADY (#6)
The two fillies likely to attract the most attention are Special Relativity and Fair Regis, and I don’t have a strong preference between them. Special Relativity makes her first start off the claim by Robertino Diodoro after recording a career-best speed figure at Churchill Downs last time. While it’s fair to call the strength of that race into question, this 3-year-old does appear to be in the best form of her career and it’s a good sign to see the new connections run her in a protected spot. Fair Regis has run multiple solid speed figures since joining the Robert Falcone barn, and she ran well at this level 4 weeks ago. On the other hand, she was supposed to win that last race after getting a perfect setup, and I feel that she’s already reached her ceiling. While the alternatives have yet to run quite as fast as the favorites, I do think that Diamond Jen Brady has a right to take a step forward on this occasion. She exits the same race as Fair Regis, but the Mark Hennig trainee was involved in that fast pace while making her first start off a 5-month layoff. According to TimeformUS Trainer Ratings, Hennig gets just a 58 Trainer Rating first off a layoff, and a 100 Trainer Rating second off a layoff. Diamond Jen Brady took a significant step forward in her second start over the winter, and she would be a major factor if she repeats that pattern here. Furthermore, there is not an abundance of early speed in this race, so she may have an easier time of it on the front end.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,7
RACE 6: FOCUS GROUP (#1)
The horse to beat is obviously Patterson Cross, but this favorite is hardly trustworthy. His only two performances since returning from an 11- month layoff earlier this year have been subpar. While he did have to briefly alter course at the head of the stretch at Keeneland last time, he quickly found a clear path and just couldn’t run down the leaders. Some may consider Markitoff to be the best alternative, especially after the result of last weekend’s United Nations at Monmouth. While Markitoff did finish second to Funtastic, he was clearly no match for that runner and had to come under a heavy drive 3 furlongs from home just to hang on for second. I think he’s a trap. In my opinion, the right horse to take is Focus Group. I’ve always been a fan of this runner, and I think he’s improved with the addition of blinkers. He ran very well in his 2017 finale despite being given too much to do late. Jose Ortiz has now ridden this colt a number of times, and has realized that he needs to start his run early to have a chance of running down the leaders. He was able to work him into the clear at the quarter pole at Keeneland last time, and Focus Group had plenty of time to run down an inferior bunch. Chad Brown was confident enough to enter this horse in the Belmont Gold Cup last month before ultimately deciding against trying that ambitious spot. This race is still a significant step up in class, but it’s a logical next step for a horse that is heading in the right direction. The other runner that I want to throw in at what figures to be a generous price is Soluble. I know that he rarely wins, but horses going out for this barn often need a race coming off layoffs. He got his prep last time and now stretches out to a distance at which he’s run competitive speed figures in the past.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,9
RACE 7: RUNAWAY LUTE (#6)
While Mr. Buff has run the fastest recent speed figures, I wonder about his current form. I know that he seemingly got back to one of his better efforts in that May 12 allowance race, but many have returned out of that event to run significantly worse in their subsequent starts. I wonder if he’s starting to head in the wrong direction as his connections finally decide to take advantage of the New York-bred N2X allowance condition that he’s always been eligible for. While it’s fair to have similar questions about likely co-favorite Syndergaard’s current condition, I’m more optimistic about his prospects. This colt clearly possesses talent, but it’s been a long time since he’s run a top race. He now returns in the barn of John Terranova, who has been enjoying a solid year in New York. He’s worked steadily and swiftly for this return, even outdueling graded stakes winner Faypien in his most recent 5-furlong drill. He’s not my top pick, but I think he’s very dangerous. The runner that I want to bet is Runaway Lute. He returned from the layoff last month and ran very well to be third while defeating a number of today’s rivals. The pace of that race was fast as closers dominated. Runaway Lute was the only horse to be chasing that quick early tempo to be around at the finish, and he might have gotten even closer had he not had to wait for a clear path at the top of the stretch. He took a big step forward in his second start off a similar layoff last season, so I’m hopeful that he can continue moving forward here.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,3,4
RACE 8: FAIRY LINK (#5)
This is a particularly treacherous leg in multi-race sequences, because so many horses are eligible to win. Given the wide-open nature of the event, Amertume figures to get overbet. She’s obviously run the fastest speed figures, but she’s now been off for over 3 months, and could be vulnerable if she returns with a subpar effort. I think she’s the horse to beat and I certainly would not advocate taking a strong stance against her, but others figure to offer much better value. Chad Brown has a pair of fillies in this race, but I’m not enamored with either one. Data Dependent got a great pace setup last time and just couldn’t produce the same late kick that we saw out of her as a 2-year-old. In my opinion, she still hasn’t recaptured top form as a 3-year-old and I’m somewhat against her. Night Time Lady got a great ride from Paco Lopez when she was third in the Chelsey Flower, as others were far less fortunate. This filly was also lucky to win her debut in a race where others had trouble, and she totally fell apart in her final start last year. It’s still unclear if she possesses real talent. Christophe Clement’s pair is more appealing. Golden Orb gets necessary class relief after trying a series of stakes races. She ran deceptively well in the Chelsey Flower last year, but her more recent performances have been lackluster. City Day has never won on turf, but she did run well over this course behind Rushing Fall and Daddy Is a Legend last September. She’s got a “wise guy” look to her in this spot. I’m using them, but the horse that intrigues me most at a far more generous price is Fairy Link. She upset Data Dependent when breaking her maiden going this distance last year, and I believe that she has moved forward since then. Fair Link had trouble in her 3-year-old debut in April when she was steadied at the quarter pole before rallying again to nearly get third. She then was too ambitiously spotted in the Boiling Springs, where she actually didn’t run as badly as her 9th place finish would suggest. Last time, they tried stretching her out to 9 furlongs, which is clearly too far for her. Yet, all things considered, she ran well to be third behind a pair of nice fillies. Getting back to a one-turn mile is perfect for her, and I also appreciate that she has tactical speed in a race where most of the top contenders are closers.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,6,10,11