by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 9 - 5 - 7
Race 5: 7 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 5 - 1 - 11 - 9
Race 7: 6 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 8: 8 - 12 - 2 - 9
Race 9: 3 - 7 - 4 - 2
RACE 2: FAIR LASSIE (#4)
First Forever is the horse to beat in this spot as she seeks her third consecutive victory. She’s facing many of the same rivals in this race that she defeated at this level on May 23. That victory, along with her prior maiden score, were accomplished over wet tracks and she is likely to encounter fast going Wednesday. She gives every indication she’ll handle fast ground, so that’s a major concern. Yet she’s going to be an awfully short price, and her recent TimeformUS Speed Figures of 78 do not make her particularly formidable. I’m using her, but I want to take a shot against her with one of the new faces at this level. Fair Lassie drops in for a tag for the first time since she won her debut in a maiden-claiming event. She earned an 81 TimeformUS Speed Figure that day, which is higher than any number First Forever has every achieved. She then stepped up in class to face winners in an optional-claiming event, and she again ran fairly well to be fourth. Things started to go awry when she was overmatched in stakes company two back and when she failed to handle the turf last time. Yet now she’s back in a realistic spot and I think she can pull off a minor upset if she gets back to her better races. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner as trainer Bruce Grossman adds blinkers for this race. As long as she beats First Forever to the front, I think she has a shot to lead this field all the way.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with ALL
RACE 4: STORMY JUSTIN (#1)
Battle of Blenheim is the horse to beat, but he’s going to be an awfully short price despite the fact he has not run a competitive race in over a year. Sold by former owner Joe Allen and transferred from Chad Brown to Todd Pletcher, he just has not been the same horse for the new connections. He returned as a new gelding this past February and had no excuse while fading after a good trip as the favorite. Back at the same level in late March, he again had no punch in the stretch, shortening stride when the real running commenced. I know his speed figures make him appear better than these horses on the drop in class but he has not been putting out a full effort in his recent starts, and that’s a concern at any level. I’m somewhat against this favorite. My top pick is Stormy Justin. I know he looks a bit cheaper than his rivals, but he’s the one horse in this field who appears to be coming into the race in the best form of his career. He’s clearly improved under the care of Pat Reynolds and his recent efforts suggest he may have another step forward in him. He ran better than it seems two back when he overcame a wide trip around the clubhouse turn. He then put it all together last time at Monmouth, finishing powerfully through the lane while running down a decent rival in Kitten Street, who returned to win. He figures to sit a great trip stalking behind speed rivals Bootlegger and Heavy Meddle, and I think he’s good enough to compete with these.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,7,9
Trifecta: 1,9 with 1,9 with ALL
RACE 6: PRETTY SPECTACULAR (#5)
Galadriel’s Light figures to go off as the favorite as she makes her turf debut. She had her fair share of chances last year and just seemed to tail off after a promising debut in October. Her connections got a bit too ambitious spotting her in the Maid of the Mist in her second start, but then she seemed to regress when returned to the maiden ranks thereafter. Now she’s dropping in for a tag for the first time as she returns from the layoff. I’m more concerned about the drop in class than the move to turf, which makes some sense. She is a half-sister to a turf winner and Will Take Charge has had some success as a turf sire. I’m using her prominently, but it’s hard for me to take a horse trying a new surface for the first time as the favorite. If I’m going to try a first time turfer, I want to take a shot with Pretty Spectacular at a much better price. Emcee has gotten off to a somewhat slow start as a sire, generally, but he’s had some success with his turf runners. This filly’s dam has only produced one turf winner, but a couple of her other foals have shown a preference for turf without actually winning over it. Pretty Spectacular didn’t show up last time, but now she gets a positive rider switch to Eric Cancel. She’s the one that I want to focus on at a price, but I could also include some others in exotics.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,9,11
RACE 7: CREATIVE STYLE (#6)
Trustworthy is the class of this field, having made seven consecutive starts in similar starter-allowance spots. He tends to settle for minor awards rather than competing for the top prize, but that may be due to the fact he's met some talented rivals in his recent starts. All four of his competitors March 17 have returned to win, and most did so with vastly improved speed figures. If he returns in top form, he will be very difficult to beat, but the three-month layoff is a minor concern. Some will consider Walkoff to be his main rival, but I’m wary of this Todd Pletcher trainee at what figures to be a short price. He debuted in a maiden claimer, getting bet down to 7-5 odds mainly due to that field's lack of quality. He put in a strong closing split to win, flying through his final eighth in 11.74 seconds, according to Trakus. It’s no surprise to see him in a protected spot as he stretches out, but he doesn’t have the most convincing pedigree. Horses like this tend to get overbet. I’m trying to beat these two with Creative Style. He has significantly improved since getting claimed by Rudy Rodriguez in February. He defeated Mental Model two back, and that one returned to win next out with a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was no match for the venerable Missle Bomb last time, but was hindered by racing wide against a strong rail bias that day. A mile is uncharted territory, but this grey is in better form than it appears and is drawn well outside of the other speeds.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5,7
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 1,2,7
RACE 8: BERTRANDA (#8)
This is easily the most competitive race on the card. In my opinion, you can make a legitimate case for 9 of the 11 runners entered for turf, so of course I want to look for a price. Jason Servis sends out the two mares who are likely to go off as the first and second choices, and I’m not enamored with either one. High Jingo seems like the kind of horse who will catch the public’s attention due to her lightly-raced record and consistent success in turf sprints. However, she’s only raced once since the fall of 2017. While she won going this distance that day, she did so against a much weaker field with a favorable pace setup. Now she hasn’t been seen for another year, and she has to get the 7 furlongs against a much tougher group. I prefer her stablemate Broken Border, who seems to handle the distance. However, she’s clearly seen better days and I’m skeptical that she can get back to the winner’s circle at this level now as a 7-year-old. I want to go in some other directions. Belle of the Spa is a filly who must be included on any serious tickets. She, too, is coming off a layoff, but she has run well in most of her turf starts and she arguably put in her best effort going this distance off a similar layoff last summer. I’m using her, but I instead want to focus on a couple of fillies going out for David Donk. Saratoga Treasure is the one who many will favor due to her solid turf form from late last season. While she was never a serious threat in her only prior start at this level, she was running on well late that day. She’s a bit of a question mark going this 7 furlong distance, but she does have a right to step forward as a 4-year-old. I’d use her defensively, but I’m far more interested in her stablemate Bertranda, who figures to get somewhat lost in the shuffle. She made her first start off the claim for David Donk last time and she ran better than it seems. The rail was the place to be on May 18, but her rider made little attempt to hold his position down inside after breaking in front of the field. She gave up position, steadying and getting shuffled back, from the start all the way until the top of the stretch. She actually was running on well late but she was already out of contention by that point. Now Donk is putting her back on the turf and her overall record on the surface (7-0-0-2) does not look that encouraging. However, it’s worth digging deeper into her form to watch some of those races. She last raced on turf in the Turf Amazon Stakes at Parx last year, so she obviously was overmatched there. Prior to that, her only other turf sprint came at this level at Belmont in early 2018, and she was hardly disgraced while going out for a low-percentage barn. All of her other turf starts were in route races. Despite the fact that she’s clearly better sprinting, she actually placed 3rd in the Christiana Stakes going 1 1/16 miles on grass at Delaware in 2017. She finish just 2 lengths behind the Grade 2-placed filly Journey Home and earned a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort. If Bertranda can still handle this surface now as a 5-year-old, she fits very well in this spot and has a great chance to outrun her odds.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,7,9,10,11,12