by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 5 - 10 - 9
Race 2: 7 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 9 - 12 - 7 - 11
Race 5: 6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 7: 9 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 8: 4 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 1 - 10 - 9 - 3
RACE 2: JAZZY J (#7)
South of France figures to go off at a relatively short price in this race after finishing a closing third in his debut at Gulfstream. While three horses have returned to win out of that race, none significantly improved her TimeformUS Speed Figures. She can win, but she hardly excites me at what figures to be a short price. I strongly prefer another filly with experience. Jazzy J made her debut against the well-meant Abyssinian last time and was clearly no match for that foe. However, she did well to finish third despite reacting very badly to the muddy kickback heading into the far turn. She was bearing out under Pablo Fragoso yet never stopped running. I think she will move forward off that effort, and she may appreciate getting onto a dry, fast track. The outside post position may also help her run a more professional race. Of the firsters, the two that interest me are the Rudy Rodriguez-trained Dizzy, whose second dam was the champion filly Eliza, and She’s a Black Belt, who looks live for Michelle Nevin.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,6
RACE 3: DOUBLE CAST (#6)
I have no major problems with the probable heavy favorite Bengala. This filly made a favorable impression in her U.S. debut at Keeneland. She launched a premature wide move leaving the backstretch and stayed on well through the lane. The winner, Creative Thinking, returned to register an impressive stakes victory next time out at Churchill Downs. Bengala had been tried in some tough spots in Ireland last year and may appreciate finally getting on firm turf. I’m certainly using her, but I think she faces a legitimate foe in Double Cast. These connections are never going to take much money, but they have a talented filly on their hands. It took Double Cast a long time to break out of maiden company, but that was partly due to some badly timed rides and poor luck. She’s been in good form for quite some time, and her four-yearold debut suggests that she may have taken a significant step forward over the winter. The distance of that race was probably too short for her, yet she was finishing strongly after a mildly uncomfortable trip.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with ALL
RACE 5: ODIN’S STEED (#6)
Surface Strike has run the fastest races, but the stretch-out in distance is a question mark for a colt that has shown speed in two dirt sprint starts. Looking beyond the favorite, this race is totally wide open. I think you have to use One More Tom, who makes his first start against New York-breds after facing much tougher open maiden fields in his last few starts. Local Counsel is also mildly interesting after running pretty well in his dirt route debut last month. I’m using all of them, but the horse that interests me most at a square price is Odin’s Steed. This rangy gray colt has had trouble putting starts together up until this point, but he has shown some ability in his races. He ran on well to be a distant third in his debut after losing contact with the field early. His second start at Aqueduct was significantly better, as he closed willingly after getting eliminated at the start. That race was falling apart late, but none was closing as quickly as Odin’s Steed. He’s been given plenty of time since that race and has lodged an improved series of workouts during the last month. I like the switch to Joel Rosario, and Charlton Baker has been enjoying a stellar meet.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5,9
RACE 6: PUERTORICAN STYLE (#5)
I find the favorites in this race to be particularly untrustworthy. Chief among those is Joopster, who exploded with a dominating win against cheaper rivals last time. However, he was sent out by Wesley Ward that day while that one was in the midst of a remarkable run of success. He’s been claimed out of that race by a low-percentage barn, so I’ll be surprised if Joopster is able to pair up wins. The likely favorite is American Power, who goes out for the ever dangerous Jason Servis. While he’s run reasonably well in all of his races, none of those efforts really excite me. I’m also somewhat concerned about his oddly sparse worktab, especially given the layoffs between all of his starts up until this point. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so I want a runner that can come from just off of it. Puertorican Style seems to fit that bill as he makes his first start off the private purchase by owner Robert Amendola. He and trainer Pat Reynolds teamed up to coax an astonishingly strong performance out of another relatively new acquisition, Have Another, a few weeks ago. This gelding’s recent form is decent, and he ran well enough three back to suggest he doesn’t need to improve that much to beat this field.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,6,9
RACE 7: STRAWBERRY TEQUILA (#9)
Byself is clearly the most talented filly in this race based on her excellent debut. She broke sharply, yet kindly sat off the pace before engaging race favorite Miss Hot Stones in a duel through the stretch. She gamely prevailed in fast time, earning a speed figure that makes her the horse to beat. However, it’s been a long time since that race, and trainer Rick Violette has poor numbers with every angle relating to this filly. He doesn’t typically do well off these types of layoffs, and he underperforms with debut winners in their second starts. If she shows up, she’ll probably win, but I’m skeptical. I want to take a shot against her with Strawberry Tequila. I know that this filly rarely wins, but I think she’s going to offer significant value in this spot. Aside from Byself, she’s run some of the fastest dirt races in the field, and has clearly established that she belongs at this level. Her first race off the switch to Jeremiah Englehart was awful. However, something had to have gone wrong that day as she was traveling well approaching the quarter pole before abruptly shortening stride in the stretch. She’s been given some time off since then and now returns off a solid series of workouts up at Saratoga. If not for the last race – which I will take with a grain of salt – this would be considered a positive trainer switch. Furthermore, there’s some pace in this race, which should help set up her stretch kick.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,6,7