by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 4: 4 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 5: 5 - 7 - 9 - 2
Race 6: 3 - 1 - 4
Race 7: 9 - 5 - 7 - 8
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 9: 2 - 4 - 8
RACE 3: JAZZY J (#4)
Tiz R Bella is likely to go off as the favorite here after easily handling a N2L field a month ago. While she earned a convincing speed figure that day, she was beating a particularly weak group for that level and did so after riding a strong rail bias through the early portions of that race. It’s possible that she’s just a new horse on the dirt, but I want to see her do it against some tougher rivals. Furthermore, there is plenty of rain in the forecast ahead of Wednesday’s card and this mare is unproven over a wet track. The problem with this race is that there aren’t many appealing alternatives. Golden Vale is the probable second choice, but she’s already had too many chances at this level. She had no excuse to lose to Salty Smile two back and then couldn’t even hold second over a longshot when cut back to today’s 6-furlong distance last time. Her speed figures put her in the mix, but I expect her to settle for another minor award. I’m taking a shot against the favorites with Jazz J. This 3-year-old filly is somewhat inconsistent, but her best efforts certainly put her in the mix. She was overmatched against a tougher field at the starter allowance level last time, but prior to that she had been picking up pieces behind superior rivals like Takecharge Mirella and Avalina. She’s best as a closing sprinter, but she’s versatile enough to stalk the pace when necessarily, and there is not much speed signed on for this affair. Furthermore, Jazz J seems to appreciate sloppy, sealed tracks, having run some of her best speed figures over those surfaces. She is likely to encounter that kind of going on Wednesday as long as the rain keeps falling.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,7
RACE 6: BON RAISON (#3)
Based on his TimeformUS Speed Figures, Ray’swarrior looks almost unbeatable in this race. He earned figures of 126 and 125 over the winter, numbers that would put him in the mix against graded stakes horses. If he repeats those performances in this spot, he is very likely to win. But is it that easy? He earned the first of those gaudy numbers against a field of $30,000 claimers, so it’s not as if he had to face any serious challenges. To his credit, the 125 figure was achieved when finishing second in the Sunshine Millions Sprint. He outdueled X Y Jet on the lead and was only run down in the final furlong by Quijote, who got a perfect trip from off the pace. That performance was legitimately strong. The problem is that he’s only been seen once since January and he should have won that day. Once stablemate Firenze Fire failed to show up, Ray’swarrior was clearly the horse to beat in that Tampa stakes, and he failed to hang on. He’s likely to lead this field for a long way, but I don’t fully trust him. Given that he’s likely to be a very short price, I want to take a shot against him with Bon Raison. This colt has had a very tough campaign, racing 9 times already this year despite the fact that it’s only June. Three of those starts came within the span of 21 days in May. The effects of that rigorous schedule may have contributed to his poor effort last time out, but he also didn’t have to appreciate the stretch-out to a route distance. This horse has developed into a dangerous sprinter, and he’s likely to appreciate the turnback in this spot. His best efforts put him very close to the favorite, and his workout on June 9 indicates that may have recovered some of his energy during this 4-week gap between starts.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4
RACE 8: AMERICAN TATTOO (#4)
Proven Reserves is expected to go off as a prohibitive favorite as he makes his 4-year-old debut. He showed great promise right from the start last year, recording a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his debut while trouncing some talented rivals. It appeared as if he might be bound for the major 3-year-old stakes last summer before failing as the even-money favorite on Aug. 26 at Saraoga. Chad Brown generally wins at a high rate off layoffs going 11 for 40 with horses returning from breaks of 180 days or more in dirt routes over 5 years. Yet the ROI for that statistic is just $1.42. This horse owns some of the best speed figures in the field and he has a right to run faster now as an older horse. I’m just concerned that he’s not going to offer any value as the odds-on favorite. Therefore, I’m trying to beat him with American Tattoo. This is the youngest member of the field, having yet to actually turn 4 in the Southern Hemisphere, where he was bred. He showed great promise in Argentina as a 3-year-old, dominating the Group 1 Polla de Potrillos (the first leg of the Argentine Triple Crown) off just a maiden win. He was reportedly working well prior to his U.S. debut on Derby weekend, but he lost all chance at the start when he broke slowly and the eventual winner swerved in front of him. He is surely better than that, and he figures to show more speed this time. As long as he breaks clearly, he could control the pace up front and he figures to be a square price.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 3 with 1,2,6