by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 2:   8 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   9 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   2 - 6 - 4 - 8
Race 6:   5 - 8 - 9 - 7
Race 7:   3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   1 - 3 - 9 - 4
Race 9:   10 - 11 - 4 - 3

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: HOPE’S ROAR (#8)
If Hoponthebusgus repeats her last effort, she can obviously win this race. However, I think she faces a subtly tougher assignment this time on the rise in class. Her trainer, Rudy Rodriguez, has had a mediocre Belmont meet thus far, due in large part to a dearth of victories on the turf. Since the start of the turf season back in April at Aqueduct, Rodriguez has sent out 38 starters and Hoponthebusgus remains his only winner. Furthermore, she was clearly aided last time when her main rival, Lion in Wait, got stymied in traffic and was essentially eased. I’m using her defensively, but I prefer Hope’s Roar at what figures to be a much more enticing price. This 6-year-old mare has toiled in cheaper races for the majority of her career, but she has undeniably improved over the course of the winter at Gulfstream. Jorge Abreu showed confidence when he moved her up in class in March. While she failed to get it done that day, she was unlucky to finish so far back after getting pinned against the rail in the stretch. She rewarded her trainer’s faith next time out with a solid second-place finish against tougher company on April 12. The winner of that race, Classy Dancer, has since gone on to place in a stakes race, and Hope’s Roar actually ran better than it seems after getting a wide trip. Now she gets a positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz, and she should receive an honest pace ahead of her.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 8 with 2,7 with 2,4,5,7

 

RACE 6: GIANT BOXER (#5)
A filly that’s going to take some money in this race of whom I want no part is Perfume Lady. Despite having her claiming tag cut in half for this first start against winners, she is actually facing a massive rise in class. There was nothing of quality behind her when she broke her maiden. An argument could be made that the speed figure she received, as low as it is, was actually too generous. I suppose the horse to beat is Tee Up, who ran a respectable speed figure when finishing second at this level last time. However, she will face early pace pressure from a few, including Ribbonite, who drops in class in her second start for the Danny Gargan barn. I’ll use both of them, but the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace so I want to consider some closers. The filly that I want to bet is Giant Boxer. Her debut win back in January was woefully slow, but her second start on dirt was actually significantly better than it seems. Stepped up to face stakes foes, she got a silly ride from Abel Lezcano. Giant Boxer came away towards the back of a bunched field and was unwisely sent forward to make a premature move past more than half the field while racing extremely wide on the far turn. Unsurprisingly, she faded late, yet she still earned a speed figure that makes her competitive with this group. I can excuse the turf experiment last time, and now she gets a positive rider switch to David Cohen.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,7,8,9

 

RACE 8: ANITA PARTNER (#1)
If Fire Key shows up in her return race, she is going to win. I’m hardly advocating that anyone takes a strong stance against her in multi-race sequences, but she is going to be a very short price for low-profile connections that are not known for success off layoffs. One of the noteworthy aspects of this race is the overall lack of pace. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation advantaging those on or near the lead, which certainly plays into Fire Key’s favor. Among the many logical alternatives to the favorite, few have any speed at all. I'm not a great fan of Weekfair, who hung badly after getting a good trip in her U.S. debut. Jc's Shooting Star looks like the best alternative from a class perspective, but her lack of early speed is a major concern in this race. Since my original top pick was scratched and I don't want to settle for Fire Key at a short price, I'm taking a shot with Anita Partner. She was pretty flat in her New York debut last time, but a mile is probably a bit farther than her ideal trip. The cutback to six furlongs is perfect and Mark Casse has been having a strong year on the circuit. She actually had some legitimate excuses in her first two sprints of the season at Santa Anita over the winter. She figures to offer the best value of the potential threats to the favorite.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,9

 

RACE 9: MORE THAN A SAINT (#10)
Pirelli Tower will go favored in this spot after coming up on the wrong end of a headbob in his debut. While he did run very well that day, the waters get deeper for Pirelli Tower in this competitive full field. I prefer horses coming out of different races. One who figures to improve is Scatsuku, who may appreciate the stretch-out in distance. He ran very well in his debut before a mildly disappointing second start last time. However, he’s really bred to stretch out and could be dangerous here if he’s away from the gate more sharply. I’m using him, but the horse that I really want to bet is More Than a Saint. Brad Cox made the interesting decision to enter this New York-bred against open company last weekend before ultimately deciding upon this race instead. He wasn’t facing the strongest field at Fair Grounds last time – though that, too, was against open maidens – but these connections know what they’re doing. I believe they wouldn’t have considered last weekend’s race unless this colt was doing very well. There is not an overwhelming amount of speed in this field, so he could find himself controlling affairs up front under Kendrick Carmouche.

Win: 10
Exacta Box: 4,10,11
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,8,9,12