by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 5 - 9 - 2
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 7 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 8 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 5: 9 - 2 - 10 - 8
Race 6: 1 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 7: 6 - 9 - 10 - 11
Race 8: 10 - 6 - 5 - 7
RACE 1: WACKY PAL (#1)
Potential favorite Graded On a Curve makes his 3-year-old debut after hitting the board in both outings as a juvenile for Chad Brown. He closed willingly to be third in his Saratoga unveiling and then was somewhat disappointing when only able to finish in a dead heat for second as the even-money favorite in September. He needs to step forward to beat this field, but Chad Brown does excellent work with maidens coming off layoffs of this type. Alphalfa is a more difficult horse for me to assess. He nearly won his debut, but did so against an inferior group of maiden claiming foes going 7 furlongs. Linda Rice has a reputation for doing very well with her second time starters in general, but she has not carried that success over to turf. Over the past 5 years, she is just 2 for 22 (9 percent, $0.68 ROI) with second-time-starting maidens in turf routes. I’ll use him defensively, but I prefer others. My top pick is Wacky Pal. This horse showed some promise in his debut against open company at Gulfstream in December. While he didn’t have any serious trouble that day, he was pinned down on the rail behind tiring runners coming around the far turn and had to weave his way through traffic while trying to mount a rally in the stretch. He was facing much tougher company that day and was hardly disgraced despite finishing 7th. He returned against New York-breds last time at Belmont and a number of things went wrong. Forced to run over a demanding course – not firm as labeled – in a driving rainstorm, he was pinned down on the rail for much of the race. Saez searched for some running room in the stretch, but Wacky Pal encountered significant traffic trouble and got steadied badly twice in the span of just one furlong. He’s clearly better than that and should give a much better account of himself in his second start off the layoff.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6,9
Trifecta: 1 with 5,9 with 2,3,5,6,9
RACE 3: HARV WON’T TAP (#7)
The horses entered for turf in this competitive race are quite closely matched. I suppose Mobridge is the horse to beat after he easily defeated an inferior group at the $25,000 level last time, but he’s been claimed by a trainer who is not known for success with turf runners. He loves Belmont Park, so I’ll use him, but others figure to offer better value. A number of horses exit the 7th race on May 19, and a few did not get ideal trips. Applicator appeared to be in a good spot coming to the quarter pole, but he had to wait in traffic in upper stretch before altering course to find running room late. He rallied well to be third, but arguably could have finished closer had he found a clear path sooner. I’m using him, but my top pic is Harv Won’t Tap. This horse was perhaps most compromised by the flow of that May 19 event, as he sat far off the pace in the early going in a race that was dominated on the front end. Few horses were making up ground in the lane, yet Harv Won’t Tap spun wide to launch an effective late rally that carried him past over half the field. His move was belated, but he was clearly running fastest of all at the end. He was claimed out of that spot by Robert Falcone, who is 6 for 18 (33 percent, $3.97 ROI) first off the claim on the turf over the past 5 years. Harv Won’t Tap had been running well at Tampa this winter, and he would be quite formidable if able to recapture that form.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with ALL
RACE 5: DEFT (#9)
Crypto Gold may go off as the favorite here after crossing the wire first at this level last time only to be disqualified for interference in mid-stretch. He ran fairly well that day, but I don’t think that was the strongest race for the level and now he’s moving up in class slightly to meet a tougher bunch. Furthermore, he got a strong pace to close into, so I’d be more inclined to take Whiskey Is My Wine out of that spot. At least he was involved in that honest early pace, so he stands to have greater upside in his second career start. I’ll use both, but I prefer others on top. A I Initiative is somewhat appealing off his form at Gulfstream, where he earned some of the highest TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field. However, he disappointed in his return to New York last time and may not be the same horse for new trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci. I’ll still use him, but I want to go in a different direction. My top pick is Deft. This horse made his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez just 11 days ago, and he’s returning in a slightly softer spot. He was never going to beat the classier duo of Digital Footprint and What’s to Blame last time, but I thought he finished well after being rated in the early going. Manny Franco clearly knew he had a horse with run underneath him, and he shifted out too hastily in upper stretch, causing interference. Yet Deft still finished up well, indicating that he can handle route distances. I would expect him to be more forwardly placed this time and he should be competitive here if he merely repeats that last effort.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,6,8,10