by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 7 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 5: 1 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 8: 7 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 4 - 7 - 6 - 1
RACE 3: SHAMROCKED (#6)
The likely favorites in this race are hardly trustworthy. Lucky Town has clearly been facing better competition in recent starts and has earned speed figures that make him the horse to beat. However, his connections are apparently giving up on him as his form has gone south. Lightning Buzz and Appealing Henry exit a common race at this level. The former typically runs his race but that’s usually only good enough to earn him minor awards. Appealing Henry gets a significant rider switch to Jose Ortiz, but his recent form is somewhat dubious. I think you have to use all of these runners in some capacity, but I want to take a shot against them with Shamrocked, who steps up off a win. He’s relatively inexperienced compared to many of his rivals and there are indications that he’s in very good form right now. While the raw final time of his last race was slow, Shamrocked actually ran very well within the context of that race, as he chased swift fractions before making an early move into the lead. His TimeformUS Speed Figure of 93, which takes into account the fast early pace, accurately encapsulates his effort, and it is the highest last-out figure earned by any horse in this event. Since that effort, he drilled a bullet 4 furlongs a week ago, which is always encouraging to see out of these cheaper claimers. There is not much early speed in this race, so he should be able to set or stalk a more moderate early pace.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,5
RACE 6: BERNIN’ THRU GOLD (#4)
We’ve now crossed into the portion of the summer when the top barns on the circuit will start to unveil their most talented 2-year-olds. While there are some decent runners with experience, including Odie and Gump, this appears to be a race that features some live first-time starters. Given the potential quality of those newcomers, it’s conceivable that the winner of this race could show up next in stakes like the Sanford or Saratoga Special when racing moves upstate. The three first-time starters that are likely to attract the most attention are Lexitonian, Bankit, and Bernin’ Thru Gold. Lexitonian is a Calumet Farm homebred son of Speightstown who has apparently been working forwardly up at Saratoga. While there is not much pedigree in his immediate female family, his second dam was Grade 1 Test winner Swap Fliparoo. Todd Pletcher is always dangerous in these situations, and this colt should be taken seriously. Bankit is the most expensive auction purchase in the race off a 10 2/5 workout at the OBS Sale in March. While the time of that drill is not exceptional, he displayed a long, rhythmic stride that left a favorable visual impression. However, this horse has a significant turf pedigree on the bottom side of his pedigree, so I wonder if dirt will ultimately be his preferred surface. I think the one that you want out of this trio is Bernin’ Thru Gold. Mark Hennig is having a fantastic year with first-time starters. Over the past year, he is 7 for 16 (44 percent, $7.16 ROI) with first-time starters on the dirt, and 4 of those winners were 2-year-olds. Bernin’ Thru Gold worked a solid quarter-mile in 21 2/5 seconds at the March Fasig Tipton sale, and he sports the best dirt pedigree in the field. He’s a half-brother to stakes winner Mei Ling, and his dam is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Master Command. Furthermore, having viewed a couple of his recent workouts over the Belmont main track, it’s apparent that Bernin’ Thru Gold has real ability.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,5,6
RACE 7: MOLLY’S NIGHTHAWK (#5)
Sardonyx and Geranium are going to attract the bulk of the play in this race, and I’m just not convinced that either one is very good. Sardonyx was soundly beaten when second at this level two back and there was nothing of quality behind her. Then last time, you can argue that both of these fillies moved a little too soon in a race that fell apart. However, the winner is not very good and the race came up slow. I’m using them, but I think they’re vulnerable. The alternative that I find most intriguing is Molly’s Nighthawk, who gets back on turf as she makes her 3-year-old debut. This filly’s only two turf attempts came against significantly better company. Her debut was actually better than it looks, as she was green through the early stages and briefly got caught behind tiring runners on the far turn before finishing well late. In her following start, which came against an even tougher, she was part of a large field and just appeared to get lost behind some longshots on the turn. Hector Diaz got her off the rail late and she finished decently once again. Now she’s returning off a layoff, which is not John Kimmel’s best move. On the other hand, she gets a positive rider switch to David Cohen and finds herself in the easiest turf race in which she’s participated. At a big price, I also want to use Rosey Gal. She is a half-sister to 3 turf winners, so she is supposed to move up on this surface.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,6,7