by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 5 - 10 - 9
Race 2: 8 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 3 - 13 - 8
Race 5: 6 - 1 - 12 - 10
Race 6: 5 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 7: 6 - 10 - 9 - 11
Race 8: 11 - 5 - 12 - 7
Race 9: 3 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 10: 1 - 7 - 3 - 6
RACE 2: BRAY (#8)
Bray is an interesting case for trip handicappers. Anyone who pays close attention to trips would have had legitimate reason to take a stand against this horse in his second start on Nov. 30. Everything had worked out perfectly for him in his debut, as he saved ground around both turns over a turf course that seemed to favor inside paths, and he only altered course to the center of the track when absolutely necessary in deep stretch. He did produce a visually impressive turn of foot in the final eighth, but sometimes it’s necessary to downplay those visual impressions when a horse’s trip gives him such an apparent advantage. Yet any trip handicapper who had dismissed Bray exiting his debut for riding a rail bias had better reassess that opinion in light of his trip on Nov. 30. The rails were once again set at 0 feet that day and this time Bray never got near the inside path. Rosario was forced to settle three-wide on the first turn and he continued in that path before getting pushed out even wider by a tiring foe at the quarter pole. All things considered, Bray did well to gather himself and rally past rivals into second, albeit over 6 lengths behind the winner. Yet that winner, Bourbon in May, was a heavy favorite who not only had a significant speed figure edge, but also rode the advantageous rail for his entire trip. It’s very likely that Bray, who did show some ability first time out, actually took a significant step forward in defeat in his second start. Plenty of time has passed since then, but Christophe Clement has solid stats off layoffs and it’s not as if this is the toughest field for the level. I prefer him to his two main rivals, Mandate and Smile Bryan. Mandate was compromised by a slow pace at Gulfstream last time, but he’s now stepping up to face older horses and may ultimately require more ground than the one-mile distance he gets here. Smile Bryan showed turf ability two back, but this sprint has some stamina questions to answer.
Win: 8
Exacta: 8 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 2,4,6
RACE 5: REMOANE (#6)
This is a highly competitive maiden affair featuring a number of fillies with decent turf form. The horse to beat is probably Strongerthanuknow, who showed good speed in a pair of turf sprints last year before fading. One of those turf appearances came against open company in the Colleen Stakes and she held her own despite getting steadied in midstretch. The two fillies who crossed the wire ahead of her that day have since gone on to win turf stakes, and Strongerthanuknow also went on to improve her speed figure next time out even in defeat. She’s the speed from the rail, but there are some other intriguing contenders drawn to her outside. Fractorzation stalked an honest pace when just missing at Aqueduct in her lone grass start last year. Saratoga Love showed promise in her debut. And even the turnback Crescent Lady is somewhat interesting given her sprint-oriented pedigree and poor trip at Saratoga last time. I’m using all of them in some capacity, but my top pick is the first time turfer Remoane. This is a filly I had tabbed to follow soon after her debut, hoping that she would appear on turf second time out. It’s worth watching the head-on replay of her first start, as that angle reveals that she was pretty rank leaving the backstretch green for the run around the far turn while racing in tight quarters. She appeared to react badly to kickback in upper stretch but only really faded out of contention once Junior Alvarado eased her up in the final eighth. She clearly needed that start and now she returns on the right surface. Her sire BC Mile winner Karakontie connects with 16% of his turf starters, and his dam is out of stakes-placed turfer Exchange Funds, who earned all of her career victories on grass. Furthermore, the Tom Morley barn has been known to connect with some first time turfers in maiden races at big prices (5-for-34, 15%, $5.00 ROI over the past 5 years).
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,9,10,12
RACE 6: XANTHIQUE (#5)
I have no major knocks against Passive Investing, who seems like the most likely winner of this race. She’s only crossed the wire first once, but she’s run well in all three career starts and her maiden-breaking effort at Keeneland last time was better than it might appear. She broke tardily that day and had to advance into position while racing wide, gamely holding off a late surge from Temple City Terror, who has since done some nice things. If I were to nitpick, I’d point out that Chad Brown is just 4-for-18 (22%, $1.03 ROI) with last-out maiden winners coming off 180+ day layoffs in turf routes, but that’s hardly enough reason to dismiss her. I prefer her to Madita, who disappointed when last seen over this course last fall. She sat a good trip stalking the gate-to-wire winner that day and just backed up in the stretch. Her first start in this country was more encouraging, but even that day she was unable to muster the sort of rally that you would have expected given her trip. Some others offer greater appeal at better prices. One of those is English Soul, who has never actually won a turf race but has nevertheless posted a slew of speed figures that put her right in the mix against this field. She put in a strong effort in her first start for this barn last fall when finishing third in the G3 Cardinal, and she’s just ben on the wrong surface since then. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is the 4-year-old filly Xanthique. She showed some promise last year, picking up a stakes-placing in the Riskaverse behind a pair of talented rivals. She just failed to hit the board in her final two starts of 2019, but she was compromised by a very slow pace in that September optional claimer and then faced a deceptively strong field when last seen at Keeneland. All three horses who finished ahead of her that day have since come back to improve their TimeformUS Speed Figures, and Zofelle and Zuzanna both went on to win stakes on the turf. Xanthique’s tactical speed should have her in the right spot here.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,7
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 3,4,7,8,11
RACE 7: MR. FIDGET (#6)
There are many contenders to consider in this wide-open maiden claiming event. Horses like Inside Info, Lorenzen, and Forest Spirit are all dropping in for a tag for the first time, and that move always merits some respect. Of those, I slightly prefer Inside Info, who ran deceptively well against a minor stakes field at Finger Lakes when last seen. It’s perhaps a little concerning that he’s returning for a tag in his first start for the Brad Cox barn, but this is probable the level at which he belongs given his performances last year. All three will be on my tickets, but the horse that interests me most from a value standpoint is Mr. Fidget. He’s already started for a tag, but notably isn’t in for the $30,000 claiming price here, taking advantage of a new rule for horses who have raced for less than or equal to today’s claiming price in their first starts back. Some may be deterred by the fact that he’s claimed away from Linda Rice, but trainer James Ferraro does a solid job and can certainly send out a longshot winner. Both of this colt’s prior performances came going a mile and I’m intrigued by this turnback in distance given that his best half-sibling was a turf sprinter. Furthermore, he’s already run as fast as the favorites, and is coming out of a strong race, out of which the winner returned to beat a much tougher field with an improved speed figure. If the pace heats up on the front end, he should be rallying late.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,9,10,11
RACE 8: HIDDEN SCROLL (#11)
I know what you’re thinking: ‘Hasn’t he had enough of this horse yet?’ Well, yes, I have – on the dirt. Hidden Scroll, in the role of dirt superstar, just hasn’t panned out and I think we can all admit that at this point. Yet the switch to turf necessitates a reassessment of the horse. From the very beginning, one of the major questions I and others had about Hidden Scroll was whether he was truly a dirt horse. I hoped so, since there would have been exciting things on the horizon for a horse of the quality that he displayed in his debut. Yet those reservations stemmed from the fact that his debut performance came over a freshly sealed sloppy track – the type of surface that can sometimes favor horses with turf inclinations. And then there’s Hidden Scroll’s pedigree, which does feature many prominent turf influences. Hard Spun does get his fair share of turf runners, and his dam is out of a Etoile Montante, a Group 1 and Grade 2 winner on turf, making her a half-sister to multiple graded stakes-winning turf Starformer. And, of course, there’s Hidden Scroll himself. He doesn’t move like your typical dirt horse, with that long, floating stride. This surface switch may be too little too late, and it’s possible that he’s just not the same horse that we once hoped he could be. Yet, in terms of raw ability, he’s still shown the most potential of anyone in here and there’s a real chance that he could just run these off their feet if the move to turf wakes him up. He gets one more shot from me. As for his competition, there are certainly some talented runners in this field, but most of them also have questions to answer. Take Value Proposition, for instance, who should also be a short price in this race. As visually impressive as he was in his debut, that field has turned out to be pretty weak in retrospect. And while he performed better than the nose margin of victory would suggest at Saratoga, he was the one who caused his own trouble with his tendency to lug in badly. What’s to say he’s gotten over that, and is he even fast enough to win this race if he runs straight? I’m skeptical. Cross Border has been a different horse lately for the Mike Maker barn, but it’s difficult to determine what his best distance is given how well he’s run over a variety of trips. Arthur Kitt is another Gulfstream shipper that merits strong consideration. It’s possible that he’s just wanted to go this flat mile all along and his return effort for Christophe Clement was pretty encouraging. Even a horse like Dream Friend is very much in the mix given the distance of this race and his consistent speed figures from last year.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 4,5,7,10,12
Trifecta: 11 with 5,7,12 with 1,3,4,5,7,10,12
RACE 9: GOT STORMY (#3)
This basically amounts to a match race between two exceptional mares. Rushing Fall figures to be the slight favorite as she makes her seasonal debut. When this Chad Brown trainee is at her best, she’s awfully difficult to beat, especially when she gets to attain a forwardly-placed early position in her races. Yet her 2019 campaign concluded with a couple of losses at short prices, shattering that air of invicibility that had previously surrounded her. She just faced a better horse in Sistercharlie in the Diana, and she didn’t get her preferred trip in the First Lady. Neither of those factors should be issues on Wednesday, but it’s not like Got Stormy is some inferior rival. Arguably, Got Stormy’s best effort eclipses that of Rushing Fall, as no one was beating the daughter of Get Stormy in the Fourstardave last summer at Saratoga. The concern with Got Stormy is that she’s lost a step since then, having gone down to defeat at short prices in her first two starts of 2020. She clearly wasn’t herself at Tampa, but her last race in the Kilroe was fine. It was hardly her best effort, but it was arguably not far off the form she displayed in races like the Woodbine Mile and Matriarch last year. Both mares need to negotiate the 1 1/16 miles distance, which might give the slight edge to Rushing Fall. Though, I could see Got Stormy working out a more favorable trip if Xenobia speeds off on the front end. Xenobia can be a run-off type early in her races, and that could put Rushing Fall in the position of chaser while Got Stormy waits. I get the slight edge to Got Stormy at a better price, but it should be a fun match-up, whomever comes out on top.
Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 1 with ALL