by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 7 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 2 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 3 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 6: 5 - 11 - 1 - 4
Race 7: 2 - 9 - 8 - 3
Race 8: 5 - 9 - 7 - 1
Race 9: 6 - 10 - 1 - 4
RACE 1: ACORN STREET (#7) / TERRABYTE (#3)
Despite only drawing 7 runners, I found this race to be especially difficult. If it stays on turf, the top two contenders appear to be the pair shipping up from Florida, Supercommittee and Equal Rights. Both of these fillies can obviously win, but I don’t want to settle for a short price in this spot. Supercommittee ran well going this distance last time, but she did so over a Gulfstream Park turf course that can often carry speed. While she did set a fast pace, I didn’t love the way she finished off that race, as she was drifting out through the lane. Equal Rights seems like the logical closer in a race that features speed. However, she’s been off for 3 months since making her debut, in which she offered up a lackluster late kick. I see a couple of better options at decent prices. Acorn Street figures to improve off the claim by Brad Cox as she returns for her three-year-old debut. This filly ran reasonably well in October last year against solid fillies Wealth Effect and Matty’s Magnum, and her final start at Aqueduct was not as bad as it seems given the fast early pace. Over the past five years, Cox is 8 for 26 ($2.95 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 120 to 240 days in turf routes. She’s my top pick, but I also want to use first time starter Terrabyte at what figures to be a very generous price. I don’t see it as a negative that she’s debuting for this high-priced tag, since maiden special weight races notoriously come up so tough on this circuit. While there isn’t obvious turf pedigree on her dam’s side, her dam is a half-sister to 2 turf winners and the majority of her foals have excelled on synthetic surfaces. Data Link is a turf influence, and I liked the way this filly was moving in her 10 2/5 workout at the OBS sale last year. John Terranova has had some success with prices making their debuts recently (albeit in sprints).
Win: 3,7
Exacta: 3,7 with 1,2,3,4,7
RACE 4: FIVE STAR BUNT (#2)
The most intriguing horse in this race is Infinity Squared, who would obviously crush this field if able to produce one of his better efforts. After showing promise in his first few starts, things fell apart two back at Oaklawn. His most recent start was not quite as bad as it seems given that he was shuffled back on the turn, yet he still came up empty once set down in the stretch. He was claimed out of that race and since transferred to trainer Michael Tannuzzo, who saddles his first starter since 2011. There are too many question marks for me to pick him, but you have to use this horse. The clear danger is Hard Way Winner, who may end up going off favored. This horse has the best early speed in a race that is lacking much pace, and he’s been claimed by some sharp connections. If he improves at all on his most recent outing, he should be tough to overhaul. However, I see one alternative that may be able to take the necessary steps forward. Five Star Bunt showed some promise as a 2-year-old. He finished behind talented New York-breds like Aveenu Malcainu and New York Hero after setting fast paces in a pair of maiden races. He finally broke his maiden in October when dropped in for a tag, running a speed figure that makes him competitive here. Linda Rice claimed him out of his next start at Laurel, in which Five Star Bunt got a ridiculous trip, racing six wide all the way around the far turn. Something may have gone amiss in his first start for the new barn as he’s been on the sidelines since. Now Rice brings him back in a realistic spot and he can make some noise here if able to get back to his better form.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 5,6 with 1,3,5,6
RACE 8: RECTIFY (#5)
Mighty Zealous has always been a consistent performer, but he’s taken his game to a new level since being united with Paco Lopez two back. If he repeats either of his last two efforts, he will be awfully tough for this field to handle. Furthermore, he’s not a horse that’s hindered by a wet track, so rain in the forecast does not figure to bother him. Drawing outside should aid his cause because there is plenty of speed in this field. That worries me a bit with my top selection, but I still have to take a shot with Rectify. Based on his last race, in which he chased the fleet-footed Jewel Can Disco, Rectify is as fast as any of his competitors in the early going. That April 11 race was just a bit too tough for him off the layoff and now he drops into a more realistic spot. Over the past five years, Michelle Nevin is 34 for 118 (29 percent, $2.01 ROI) with horses making their second start off a layoff in a dirt sprint. I’d also use the late-running Benevolence, who has been in top form, but I worry about him having to close from much farther back this time.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,7,9