by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 2: 6 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 8 - 6 - 2 - 9
Race 6: 7 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 7: 6 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 8: 8 - 10 - 3 - 4
RACE 5: IMPERIAL MIGHT (#8)
Fame to Famous was bet down to 4-5 last time as he dropped into one of these restricted maiden special weight races for the first time. However, he had the misfortune of running into an unusually tough field at the level in what came up a very fast race. He broke a step slowly, but really had no excuse to lose, other than the fact the winner was simply better. He now switches into the barn of Art Magnuson, who is 1 for 39 on the NYRA circuit. Main rival Danzing Dunhill loomed as a threat at the top of the stretch last time after working out a great trip under Manny Franco, but just flattened out in the final furlong. That was an encouraging debut considering the apparent strength of the race, but this horse did get a great trip settling well off a fast pace in the early going. He’s one of the main players, but I’m somewhat concerned that he’s going to be overbet off that performance. Given that the aforementioned two should attract the bulk of the play, we may get some enticing prices on the rest. Therefore, I’m taking a shot with first-time starter Imperial Might. This gelding sold for $125,000 as a yearling, and only later went for $40,000 after working a furlong in 10 3/5 at Fasig-Tipton. Palace Malice is just 1 for 17 with first-time turfers, but he is the sire of turf graded stakes winners Crystalle and Structor, both major contenders for the Breeders' Cup next month. The dam was unraced and this is her first foal, but the dam is a half-sister to a stakes winner on synth and there is some turf pedigree deeper in the family. He appears to be training well, and Morley can connect with a price first time out from time to time.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,6
RACE 6: DARIA’S ANGEL (#7)
Honor Way may go off as the favorite in this spot as she drops in class down to this starter allowance level. However, she’s not exactly facing the easiest field, as the connections of a few other classy runners apparently had a similar idea. Honor Way has arguably run some of the fastest races but her last two performances were somewhat dull. She failed to get involved behind subsequent stakes winner Special Relativity two back at Saratoga, and then she flattened out while attempting to make a late run at Belmont last time. That most recent start was her first off the claim for Charlton Baker, who is just 3 for 37 (8%, $0.47 ROI) second off the claim at NYRA over 5 years. I’m using her defensively, but am looking elsewhere. Queen Nekia offers some appeal as a new face, but I found her last race to be underwhelming. Therefore, I’ve settled on Daria’s Angel as my top pick. She was hardly disgraced in her return at Belmont last time, though the 6-furlong distance was probably her undoing. She’s best going a mile, but this 7- furlong trip may be suitable for her. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and she figures to work out a good trip stalking the speedy Tanya’s Gem.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,5,8
Trifecta: 7 with 3,5 with 2,3,5,8
RACE 7: SINWAAN (#6)
I suppose Break Curfew might have a slight edge if she repeats her Prioress effort. She was content to stalk a fast pace that day and stayed on decently in the stretch. She only beat one rival home, but she nevertheless earned a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure, a number that makes her pretty formidable against this group. I prefer her to Concerned, the last-out debut winner who may attract some support. This filly was visually impressive in victory back in June, but she was beating one of the weakest maiden special weight fields that’s been assembled all year at NYRA. She was allowed to set a slow early pace and sprint home, and the 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she was assigned does not make her competitive against this bunch. Furthermore, Mark Hennig is just 4 for 42 (10%, $0.89 ROI) with last-out maiden winners on dirt. I prefer those with experience against winners. Our Circle of Love can be a little inconsistent, but she’s coming off a solid performance at Saratoga, and Alisio’s two efforts since returning from a layoff have been encouraging. I’d use both of them prominently, but my top pick is Kiaran McLaughlin’s other filly Sinwaan. This daughter of Into Mischief is coming off a poor effort at Saratoga, but she had a significant excuse that day. Heading for the far turn, she was about to get squeezed out of position, so Luis Saez reined her in to drop in behind Our Circle of Love. Unfortunately, that proved to be a poor choice as that filly was in the midst of retreating, and Sinwaan got shuffled all the way back to last by the time they arrived at the quarter pole. She got into the clear at that point, but Saez didn’t persevere with her in the stretch. She’s now had plenty of time since that effort and comes into this race off a steady series of works. Furthermore, she’s handled a wet track in the past and there’s plenty of rain in the forecast for Wednesday.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2,3 with ALL