by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   8 - 11 - 6 - 10
Race 5:   1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 6:   13 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 7:   1 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 8:   3 - 9 - 1 - 6
Race 9:   3 - 11 - 2 - 10

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: NINJA BOYS (#4)
The two runners likely to dominate the wagering are both dropping in class for top barns. Support Our Cause makes his first start against maiden claiming company for Chad Brown after failing to get involved over a sloppy track at Monmouth last time. He would be pretty formidable if he were to run back to his debut effort over this track, but it appears that he’s gone the wrong way since then. Country Squire showed some signs of life in his return at Gulfstream last time, but that was not the strongest field. The best thing that he has going for him is his ample gate speed, which should place him clearly in front in the early going. One of these two is likely to win, but I think there’s a third contender in this race that is going to get somewhat lost in the wagering. At first glance, Ninja Boys just appears to be too slow, but I think you can make some valid excuses for a number of his races. He actually made a solid late run in his debut before they stretched him out in his second start. That was actually a pretty tough race, headed by next-out winner Zonic, and Ninja Boys got buried inside behind tiring runners on the turn. He didn’t run well, but I don’t think the performance is quite as bad as it might seem. In his most recent dirt start on Aug. 4, he was dropped in for a tag for the first time. The inside path was dead on that day at Saratoga, and Ninja Boys spent every step of his trip glued to the rail. All things considered, I thought he did quite well to get up for fourth in what was an unusually tough race for the level. I don’t care about his turf races, and he’s bred to handle more distance, so I think he deserves another chance stretching out on dirt.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5
 

RACE 2: SEMPER SENTENTIAE (#6)
Lady Paname is likely to go off at a very short price in this race as she makes her Stateside debut for Chad Brown. On the surface of things, she does appear to have a significant class edge over her rivals. Competing in France as a 3-year-old, she was knocking heads with some very talented 3-yearolds who would go on to achieve some noteworthy accomplishments. Those include Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak winner Ice Breeze, Grade 2 Glens Falls winner Lady Montdore, and Group 1 Prix Vermeille winner Kitesurf. However, there are a couple of issues with Lady Paname in this return race. The biggest hurdle is the 10-furlong distance, since this is the shortest race in which she’s ever competed. Furthermore, Brown does not have very strong numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 12 for 49 (24 percent, $1.37 ROI) with foreign shippers in turf routes off layoffs of 180 days or more. These runners win at a fair rate but are often overbet. Lady Paname has been in training with Brown since the winter Gulfstream, so something has been keeping her off the track for this lengthy time period. I would use her defensively, but I think there are other contenders. One of those is obviously War Cabinet, who did well to be third last time after a moderately wide trip. The winner was much the best that day, but this filly is improving with each start. My main concern would be the condition of the turf course, since she did not handle soft going at Keeneland. I want to bet Semper Sententiae. I realize that she’s only coming off a maiden victory, but this filly has displayed real ability in her two starts. She actually did well to only lose her debut by two lengths after a nightmare trip, and she responded very well to the stretch-out in distance last time. It’s a feather in her cap that she handles cut in the ground and she possesses the tactical speed to work out a great trip in a race that doesn’t feature much early speed. If Lady Paname stubs her toe, I think this lightly-raced daughter of The Factor is most likely to land the upset.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 3,7 with 2,3,4,7
 

RACE 7: PINK SANDS (#1)
Ascot Walk is going to be a heavy favorite in this race once again despite finishing fourth as the odds-on choice on Sep. 15. While she wasn’t terribly wide that day, she did race in the 2-path for her entire trip on a day when staying on the rail was a significant advantage. Both the winner, who hugged the rail throughout, and the runner-up saved more ground. The Pace Projector is predicting that Ascot Walk will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner and perhaps that will put her in the winner’s circle. However, I’m not quite convinced by her overall form. While her third-place finish on Aug. 17 at Saratoga seemed encouraging at the time, the form of that race looks much weaker in retrospect. Aside from the apparent pace advantage, I don’t see any evidence that Ascot Walk is any more talented than her nearest rival, Pink Sands, who actually finished ahead of her last time. Pink Sands was an overlay at 11-1 that day and I think she’s going to be a playable price once again. If you watch the head-on replay of that Sep. 15 affair, it’s apparent that Pink Sands was traveling in the same path as Ascot Walk throughout, so she was similarly compromised by a 2-wide trip. She does have to overcome dynamics that favor Ascot Walk, but she’s shown an effective closing kick in each of her last two starts and I especially loved the way Joel Rosario, who gets back aboard today, rode her two back. I’ve never been this filly’s biggest fan, but I just get the sense that she’s the one moving in the right direction at the right time. McGaughey’s other entrant Barrier Island also figures to attract some support. She actually showed some talent as a 2-year-old, but this barn often gets overbet with runners like this and she possesses even less early speed than her stablemate.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 4,6,7
 

RACE 8: WAY EARLY (#3)
There appear to be three main contenders in this race. Winter Union appears to be the most reliable considering that he just narrowly lost at this same level going this exact distance last time out. This is arguably a tougher field, but he seems to be improving at the right time and he’s proven that he can handle a turf course with some give to it. I prefer him to Vintage Matters, who has not won a race since the summer of 2016. This New York-bred is curiously spotted in an open N1X allowance race despite still being eligible for all of his New York-bred conditions. He did run well two back in the Cape Henlopen, but that seemingly was a result of him appreciating the 12-furlong distance. He didn’t do quite as well over a yielding course at Laurel last time, and now he gets some class relief. At his best he can win this, but it’s hard to know what we’re going to get. I prefer the other New York-bred Way Early. He, too, is skipping an allowance condition to run here, but I think the move makes more sense for this quickly improving 3-year-old. While he only won by a length as the even-money favorite last time, he was far more dominant in victory than that margin suggests. Way Early was never in great position and he had to swing 4-wide on the far turn to make his move over a course that was strongly favoring inside paths. When he gets the right trip, he is a powerful finisher and I think he should have no trouble with the added distance of this race. There are plenty of stamina influences to be found in his female family, as his dam won the 9-furlong Bonnie Miss on dirt and she is out of a daughter of 12-furlong Hollywood Turf Cup winner Vilzak.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,9
Trifecta: 3 with 1,9 with 1,2,6,8,9