by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 9 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 13 - 4 - 5 - 12
Race 5: 1 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 1 - 10
Race 7: 2 - 1A - 7 - 5
Race 8: 4 - 6 - 9 - 8
Race 9: 3 - 5 - 11 - 7
RACE 3: SPA TOWN PARADE (#9)
This race was a struggle to handicap. Horses like Kate Is a Ten and Milaya are probably the most likely winners, but I can't endorse betting them at short prices. Kate Is a Ten's last race was awful. She got a fast pace to close into and didn't show any kind of closing move while barely outrunning longshot Perina's Pride, who also is in this race. Milaya seemed to improve on turf recently, but her dirt form is nothing special. This feels like a race that could produce a wacky result, which is why I'm picking longshot Spa Town Parade. As with any massive longshot, the negatives are obvious. She goes out for low-percentage connections, is piloted by a rider who rarely wins on this circuit, and is coming off an extended layoff. However, there are some things to like. Before the layoff, she raced three consecutives time on wet tracks, which she strongly dislikes. She also was running very frequently at that point in time, so she may have just gotten burned out. Going back four or five starts in her PPs, she was actually running speed figures that would make her a contender here, and was doing so against tougher competition. This mare is inconsistent, but she has sprung improbable upsets before.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,4,8
Trifecta: 1,2,4 with 1,2,4,8 with 9
RACE 6: CHASINDAMONEY (#3)
Rockin Jo led a maiden field for most of the way before just getting run down in the final strides here a month ago. He was setting a strong pace that day and did well to hang on for second. The only problem I have with him is that he appears to be facing a tougher group this time. Some of the strongest alternatives are exiting the Saratoga sprint run on Aug. 25. Barbarossa ran the best race of anyone coming out of that event, as he was spun wide coming off the far turn and closed well through the lane to be second. However, I prefer another runner that figures to go off at a more attractive price. Chasindamoney did little running after breaking slowly in his debut, but Linda Rice sometimes gives her horses a race first time out before getting serious. Over the past five years, she is 10 for 27 (37 percent, $3.12 ROI) when adding blinkers with second-time starting maidens. Furthermore, this colt is bred to be a runner since his dam is a half-sister to millionaire turfer Lubash.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,6,4,10
RACE 7: LA MONEDA (#2)
Frosty Lady is clearly the horse to beat after showing marked improvement through her two starts at Saratoga. She stepped up to win a tight photo when surprisingly favored against a field of $25,000 claimers two back, and then elevated her game to a new level when finishing a strong second last time. That day, she was wide around both turns and was closing best of all in the late stages. If she repeats that performance, she'll almost certainly win this race, but I'm a little skeptical. I see two potential alternatives to the favorite. One is first-time turfer Land Mine. Like her half-sister Bar of Gold, she relished a sloppy track at Saratoga when winning her maiden going nine furlongs last time. However, she also has ample turf pedigree on the dam's side and looks like the kind of horse that should take to this surface. I'll definitely use her, but my top pick is La Moneda. I was impressed by this filly's maiden win, as she took over with authority at the top of the stretch and kicked clear easily while the race was falling apart behind her. She also ran better than it appears in her debut after chasing a fast pace. There's pedigree for her to be a nice New York-bred since she's a full sister to multiple turf winners Palace Dreams and Dream Doctor.
Win: 2
Exacta Box: 1,2,7
RACE 8: BOURBON EMPIRE (#4)
I'm a little concerned about the fact that Bourbon Empire has needed so much time between his last few starts, but I cannot deny that this gelding has run very well in his last two dirt races. On April 8, he was one of the few runners that effectively closed from off the pace on a day when the main track was favoring speed, and then last time at Saratoga he did well to overcome a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs). If you ignore those two turf experiments, he's just been in fantastic form and is clearly the horse to beat in this spot. The only issue with him is that he's a closer in a race that once again does not feature much pace. I'm hoping that Jose Lezcano can keep him a bit closer to the early pace since he did show the ability to stalk earlier in his career.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 6,8,9
RACE 9: SARDONYX (#3)
Almost all of the major contenders in this finale are exiting the maiden race run at Belmont on September 22, which was won impressively, and in fast time, by Jody's Song. Of the also-rans, Purely Lucky and Carrera Cat ran the best races. However, the former is going to be a short price and has had a few chances at this point, and the latter is stuck on the also-eligible list. I wan to look at some more creative options out of that race since a few horses had trips. In my opinion, the runner that stands to take the biggest step forward is Sardonyx. This filly broke about a length slowly, and John Velazquez immediately motivated her to try to get her into the race. However, in doing so, she became rank down the backstretch and ended up making a mild premature move while racing wide without cover. She continued to advance wide into the turn and eventually flattend out late. Overall, it was a good education, and she figures to improve in her second start.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,7,10,11,15