by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 7 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 4: 4 - 1/1A - 2 - 9
Race 5: 1/1A - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 8: 8 - 5 - 1 - 10
RACE 6: HEAVY ROLLER (#3)
Life in Shambles is clearly the class of this field and would obviously win this race with any of his good efforts. However, it’s fair to wonder what we’re going to get from a horse who has failed to be competitive in two consecutive starts and is now essentially getting his claiming price slashed in half. This horse had a good run for his current connections, winning a Grade 3 event last fall, but he’s obviously in to be claimed now. While Life in Shambles has run some of his best races at Belmont Park, seven furlongs has never been his best distance. He had performed respectably going this far when he was in form, but that’s certainly not the situation anymore. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the horse on or near the lead, and that pacesetter figures to be Aristocratic. He wired a field here just over a week ago, but he benefited from a very favorable pace setup that day and was not facing a particularly strong group of rivals. I’m a little skeptical that he can pull off that feat again, especially as he stretches out to 7 furlongs. I instead want to take a shot with Heavy Roller on the turnback. This horse has been focused primarily on route races, but he has had some one-turn success. He was not in great form when he first appeared on this circuit for Joe Sharp back in July, but the drop in class seemed to work for him when going out for Linda Rice last time. I like that Rob Atras is keeping him at a similar level in this first start off the claim, and I trust him to show up more than most of the others. If this race falls apart, he could be the beneficiary.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6,7
RACE 7: JOHN JONES (#4)
Lemonist is obviously the horse to beat as he drops back down to this starter allowance level. He’s been facing tougher foes in optionalclaiming races for most of 2019 and it’s not as if he’s been disgraced in his recent starts. He couldn’t quite handle the stretch-out to 11 furlongs in two starts earlier this summer and he was hindered by a slow pace when turned back to a mile on Travers Day. He was never a serious factor behind his stablemate Noble Indy last time, but he nevertheless stayed on reasonably well to be third, earning a speed figure that would make him pretty tough to beat against this group. I’m hardly against him, but he’s going to be a pretty short price and there are some others to consider. I’m not a big fan of horses like Siding Spring, who beat weaker last time, or Sentry, who was the beneficiary of a pace that fell apart at Colonial Downs. My top pick is John Jones, who ships in from Laurel for Lacey Gaudet. This gelding has primarily raced on dirt throughout his career, but he has shown some serious turf ability from time to time. He most recently tried the grass in a pair of starts at Laurel earlier this year and he actually ran better than it might appear on each occasion. He contested an honest pace in that May 3 affair and barely lost to Force the Pass, who would be among the favorites in a race like this. The 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that performance makes him one of the fastest horses in this field. Then on June 1, he was unwisely rated off a slow pace and never had a chance to mount a rally. I like that the apprentice who rode him to victory at Colonial last time showed aggression, and similar tactics may work out well for him in this field.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,7
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with ALL
RACE 8: KEOTA (#8)
Augusta Moon and Keota faced off in a race at this level three weeks ago. Augusta Moon put away that rival in the stretch, but both were run down in the late stages. That race was contested over 1 1/16 miles, a distance that both have handled. Yet, whereas Augusta Moon has yet to sprint on turf, Keota has shown more versatility. In fact, I’ve always been of the opinion that Keota is better going shorter distances. She was visually impressive when she broke her maiden going 6 furlongs last year and she had a legitimate excuse in her only other sprint start since then. While she’s used her tactical speed to good effect going longer, she’s perfectly capable of rallying from farther off the pace in these shorter races, so I’m not at all concerned that horses like Augusta Moon and Teletype may be faster in the early going. Jason Servis is known for his excellent work with turf sprinters, and he even does well with turnbacks on the turf. Over the past 5 years, he is 9-for-30 (30%, $2.30 ROI) with horses going from routes to sprints on turf at NYRA. I think Keota is landing in the right spot and I prefer her to the other favorite, though I will also use Servis’s other runner. O’Malley beat a weaker field last time at Saratoga, but she did so after encountering some trouble. The same turnback stat applies to her, and Servis’s numbers with horses off the claim in turf sprints are off-the-charts. She’s more of a wild card, but she should not be dismissed as a win candidate.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,5,10
Trifecta: 8 with 1,5 with 1,3,5,6,10