by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   9 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 3:   7 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 4:   9 - 10 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 9 - 3
Race 6:   7 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 7:   5 - 1A - 2
Race 8:   6 - 11 - 4

PLAYS

 
RACE 3: PETER’S PROJECT (#7)
One River Place and Armament figure to vie for favoritism in this spot, and they both have some questions to answer. I prefer Armament, who makes his first start off the claim for Chris Englehart. While it’s not a great sign that he’s being dropped in class in his first start for the new barn, Englehart is 2 for 2 with horses dropping by 50% or more on dirt off the claim. If he gets back to his winning effort at Saratoga on July 11, he’ll be a handful. However, I’m a little concerned that he won’t make the lead going this one-turn configuration, since One River Place is faster early. My problem with One River Place is that he just seems like a sprinter. He probably doesn’t want to go this far and Rudy Rodriguez is 0 for 16 off layoffs of 150 to 300 days in dirt routes. The drop in class is not a great sign, but at least the Pace Projector is predicting he’ll get a favorable trip. I’ll use both defensively, but my top pick is the venerable 9-year-old Peter’s Project. It seems like this horse has regained decent form for Jeffrey Englehart in recent months. He transferred his Finger Lakes form to Saratoga two back, finishing gamely to be third against a solid field at this level. He wasn’t as effective at Penn National last time, but he didn’t get a great trip that day, as he was shuffled back to last on the backstretch in a race that was dominated up front. He’s in better form than that and I think he can bounce back here.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,5,8
 

RACE 6: SHE TAKES CHARGE (#7)
Behind the Couch may go favored in this spot as she returns following a disastrous performance in the Fleet Indian. Something clearly went amiss that day, as she was never traveling well and was eased on the far turn. Given that unsightly effort, it’s a good sign to see her back in the entries just two months later, showing a steady series of workouts leading up to this. Jeremiah Englehart does well with turn-backs in general, and this filly may ultimately be better going shorter. She’ll be formidable if she bounces back, but she’s still hard to completely trust. Sweet Meadow Mist also figures to attract some support, but horses with her kind of late-running style are always at the mercy of the pace and there just isn’t much speed in this field. Given that situation, I want to take a shot with She Takes Charge as she returns from a layoff. This filly hasn’t been seen in nine months, but she showed talent in her two appearances over the winter last year. She was bet down to favoritism in her December debut and did not disappoint, drawing off to an impressive victory. That race only received a 75 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but almost every horse to come out of that spot improved in their next start. Of the 11 horses to run back, not counting this filly, 10 improved their figures and one regressed. Those who improved did so by anywhere from 10 to 47 speed-figure points, averaging out to a 23-point improvement. She Takes Charge didn’t quite handle the mile in her only other start before getting put on the sidelines. Yet she appears to be working well for her return. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting she will be stalking the pace in a situation favoring horses on or near the lead.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 7 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,5,6
 

RACE 7: CHANTRY FLATS (#9)
The Chad Brown/Klaravich Stables entry may look intimidating, but I would demand some value on them, since these pairings are often overbet. Spirit Animal looks like the stronger half of the entry. His Saratoga effort was fine, as he stayed on evenly while no match for stablemate Value Proposition, the trouble noted there being merely incidental. This colt showed promise as a juvenile, running a deceptively strong race in the Pilgrim after a disastrous start, and still has room for upside. However, this is a tall order off the layoff. He could face a challenge from fellow 3-year-old Mr. Alec, who took a major step forward last time when getting 1 1/4 miles in a sub-two-minute clocking. He won in commanding fashion, opening up about three lengths in the final furlong before crossing the wire comfortably ahead. However, runner-up Compliant returned to lose as the heavy favorite at Keeneland, so the form of that race is uncertain. Clement has strong statistics off maiden wins on turf and the slight cutback to nine furlongs shouldn’t bother him. Speed has been dangerous on these Belmont turf course, especially in recent weeks and that makes Everyonelovesjames and Chantry Flats somewhat intriguing. The former is back at an appropriate distance after trying some new things over the course of his last few starts. He didn’t settle going the 1 3/8 miles in July, and then was outrun to the lead sprinting last time. If he can get back to his West Point performance, he’ll be a handful. However, I prefer Chantry Flats in this spot. It took him nine starts to break his maiden, but he’s been earning TimeformUS Speed Figures that would make him competitive at this level for a while now. He finished a strong second to Unleveraged in April, and that rival had no trouble winning this condition next time out. He should sit a good trip stalking Everyonelovesjames and you know he appreciates this distance.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,6,10
Trifecta: 9 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,6,7,10