by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   8 - 6 - 5 - 9
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 3:   7 - 8 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 5:   10 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 6:   9 - 5 - 10 - 3
Race 7:   3 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   1 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 9:   7 - 10 - 5 - 4

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: HOT LIAISON (#8)
Big Mischief will probably go off as the favorite as she makes her second turf start and is trained by Chad Brown. While she was facing tougher company in that turf debut at Saratoga, she got a fantastic ground-saving trip and still failed to make an impact in the lane. I’m just not convinced that she’s particularly talented, or that she’s necessarily a turf horse, and would rather look elsewhere. For Kicks is probably the horse to beat. This filly has actually faced some solid competition while racing against maiden special weight company out of town. Three back she was beaten by the talented Tapit Today, who went on to place in a stakes at Saratoga, and last time she finished a good fourth in a particularly tough maiden event at Kentucky Downs. Michael Matz has brought some live turf runners to this meet, so I would take this filly seriously. I’m using her prominently, but the horse that interests me most at what figures to be a square price is Hot Liaison. Her September debut going 6 furlongs looks pretty lackluster at first glance, but there are reasons to believe she can do better this time. That race was run during a period of time when the turf courses were still quite boggy, and the rail was a significant advantage. Hot Liaison raced 2 to 3 wide throughout her trip and just didn’t seem to have the speed to keep up with some faster fillies. She really didn’t find her best stride until the final furlong and was actually galloping out well across the wire despite finishing far behind the winner. Now her connections are dropping her into a more realistic spot, and she presents herself as a filly that should appreciate the added ground. Her sire, Liaison, has proven to be a solid turf influence at stud, and her dam was stakes-placed going two turns on the dirt. She has produced a half-sibling that was stakes-placed going 1 5/16 miles in Germany.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,5,6,9
 

RACE 2: CALIFORNIA NIGHT (#1)
O Shea Can U See may win this race at a relatively short price, but I’m inclined to bet against this runner. This horse is a great example of the feats that Jason Servis was able to pull off earlier this summer, as he was routinely getting horses to perform at levels far exceeding their prior form. O Shea Can U See ran two races at Belmont in May and July that were impossible to foresee based on his prior efforts. He then came back down to Earth at Saratoga, as he curiously took almost no money in that Aug. 5 allowance race and ran to the lack of support. I have little faith in him as he returns off a layoff while dropping in class, though the tote board will be my guide. I prefer the two contenders posted to his inside. Mohican is perfectly logical based on his recent dirt form. He ran well to be second in two races at this level within the span of a week in late September, though it is worth noting that he benefited ground-saving trips over rail-biased tracks in both starts. My top pick is California Night, who returns on short rest as he makes his second start off the layoff and is trained by Mike Maker. While he lost his return race by 10 lengths, I actually thought it was a somewhat encouraging effort given the race dynamics. Breaking from the rail, California Night was shuffled out to last early – an unfamiliar position for him – and had to rally wide into the stretch to get up for third. The early pace was very slow and the rail may have been an advantage, to so I would upgrade that performance. It was encouraging to see him pass horses, as he will probably have to do the same in this spot. Today’s drop in class figures to help, as does the added half-furlong.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4
Trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with ALL
 

RACE 5: NIKO’S DREAM (#10)
Of those with prior turf form, Plink Freud is clearly the filly to beat. Despite finishing fourth in her debut, she earned a speed figure that would win most New York-bred maiden races for 2-year-old fillies. It is of some concern that horses have not returned out of that race to validate the unusually fast time, as only Espresso Shot returned to run as fast in her next start and she did so on the dirt. That said, Tom Bush rarely has his runners fully cranked for their unveilings, so it’s reasonable to assume that Plink Freud can improve. I’m using her prominently but there are others to consider. Niko’s Dream comes out of a slower race than Plink Freud, but she was facing some talented rivals. Winner Surge of Pride has since won the Maid of the Mist and runner-up Short Pour returned to win her second start impressively. Niko’s Dream didn’t seem to have her mind on running in the early stages of that race, as she entered the stretch in last place. However, once Junior Alvarado asked her for run, she absolutely took off, passing rivals quickly in the final furlong and on the gallop-out. According to Trakus, she ran her final quarter-mile in 22.66 seconds, nearly a full second faster than any other horse in the race. She’s my top pick, but I also want to use a couple of others. Diamond Princess actually ran well despite racing greenly in her debut, and that was after she flipped in the paddock prior to the race. She has a right to move up on turf. I’d also be remiss not to use Marquet Legacy, a half-sister to millionaire Discreet Marq who makes her debut and is trained by Christophe Clement.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,6,9
Trifecta: 10 with 2,6 with 1,2,5,6,9
 

RACE 8: PENJADE (#1)
While this is by no means an easy spot for her, Hallie Belle is clearly the horse to beat based on her superior 2018 form. This filly had shown some potential with three consecutive wins at the end of last season, but she has taken her performances to a new level this year. She ran very well to beat Hawsmoor in the Dahlia back in April and she has been on a steady diet of graded stakes races since then. While she ran respectably in the Modesty and Yellow Ribbon, her Canadian last time was somewhat disappointing. After all, she was bet down to 6-1 against a formidable Chad Brown pair and could only manage to finish 5th of 6 despite getting a favorable pace setup. This slight drop in class makes sense while she’s still eligible for an allowance condition and she’s strictly the one to fear. Two of her main rivals are Dolce Lilli and Candy Store. The former is stepping up in class, but she has been in great form for Bill Mott and would be no surprise if the favorite fails to put forth a top effort. Candy Store is interesting because she defeated last weekend’s Athenia winner Rymska when gamely winning an allowance race at Saratoga. Some may be tempted to upgrade her off that running line, but Rymska clearly underperformed that day at the Spa and Candy Store had everything her own way up front. She may encounter a similar pace scenario here, but I still have some doubts about her overall quality. My top pick is Penjade. She finished behind both Candy Store and Rymska at Saratoga last time, but that was her first start in over 8 months and she did not get an ideal trip. She was hurt most of all by the slow pace of that race, and she actually made a strong move to reach contention at the top of the stretch. She lost some momentum when Javier Castellano had to alter course once a hole along the rail closed up, but I thought she finished up decently considering the layoff and race dynamics. Going back to last season, she was earning speed figures that were faster than Hallie Belle’s recent races, and I’m willing to give her one more chance to get back to that form.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,6